Gas to exceed $5 in the very near future

[ChairmanAgnostic]

Early this morning, CNN interviewed some gas and oil industry expert, who plainly and clearly did the math. IF (and notice the capital letters) the region is hit by a hurricane (about 100% certainty) 21 major refineries in Texas and Louisiana will close down.
that supplies 65% of all oil and gas to the United States from the Mississippi to the eastern coast. That means, at the very least, $5 a gallon before the winter storms and temps come in.
Heating fuel (for the east coast) is already approaching record temps.
Gas may not be available at any price because of a lack of supplies.
It takes several days to turn off a refinery. It takes weeks to turn one on. If any of them are damaged, euro-styled gas prices will be with us for the forseeable future.

Anyone see any humvees on the road recently?

[whistle]

1. Will Bush accept Cheves's offer of oil now?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. i doubt it. Remember, politics is more important than lives.

Shrub has proved that in Afghanistan, Iraq, Katrina, etc. Unless he can figure out a way for Haliburton to gain unbelievable profits, it won't happen.

[skinfusionz]

2. Can our economy handle 5$/gal?

I filled up last night and the guy next to me was filling up 4-10 gallon tanks in his trunk in addition to his car.

[buddysmellgood]

4. I understand why people try to stock up, but it's silly. 40 gallons of gas

and that guy will save maybe $100. But now he's got to store it and slop it around to use it. For most of us, the risk of trying something like that really isn't worth it.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. I recall the daze of Carter oil shortages

Some people built these huge internal gas tanks in place of their trunks. Unfortunately, if they were completely filled, the cars' suspensions were not strong enough to carry the weight. Not to mention the fact that the cars were simply rolling potential bombs.

You are so right about "stocking up". Unless you have a home-based underground tank, safely built and installed, with vents, pumps and a way to keep the water out, what is the point? you may get two, maybe three tankfuls in the future, but the danger is extreme. The whole point about gas is that it is concentrated energy. It burns. It explodes. It is highly reactive and will eat through containers not intended for it.

[ThomWV]

5. That's Simply Not True

To begin with the refinery's on the Texas coast are much more disperse than those in Louisiana so there will be fewer refinery's knocked out. Then you only need to look to the last month's knock-outs and restarts to see that they can be back up and running in about 5 days once they restore electrical power to the refinery's. So the initial premise is simply bullshit.

[Mr_Spock]

7. I guess we'll find out soon enough

I don't think it's in the best interest of the oil companies to gouge us at this time. I, for one, kinda hope that they do so the heartlessness & greed of these people is brought to the fore...

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. the refineries in LA were not shut down.

The power that was shut off, then turned back on did not go to the refineries, but the pipelines that led from them to the east coast. Gee, you ever think that an oil refinery might have some local source of fuel or power to general electricity?

We have several refineries nearby (Joliet, in particular) To SHUT DOWN a typical refinery, there are 20-40 major steps to take. To avoid damage to the equipment, it has to been done sequentially. Also, when you shut some key components down, you cannot just flip a switch and turn it back on. Priming, prep, replacement of insulation, gaskets, and more has to be done.
So long as you have the thing running, you maintain some pretty precise temps and pressures. Once you shut down, the insulation and gaskets actually begin to crumble and fall apart. It is a long, involved, and expensive process, and requires tons of man hours to do it.

Lastly, that CNN engineer also reported that it will take many weeks to get them back on line if they shut down. So, this is not a premise, this is being a messenger. But, hey, don't take my word for it. Just watch your local gas prices in the upcoming weeks.
I promise not to say I told you so. Well, on the other hand. . .

[eglide]

8. Gas pricese here in Ohio

have come down quite a bit post Katrina. Had a short term spike then dropped about 50 cents. The key is not to panic. The refinerys will be back up. Oil companies can't make any money if they don't make gas and fuel oil.

http://www.ohiogasprices.com/

[ChairmanAgnostic]

10. not panic. Supply and demand. It's the law.

if there is any disruption to 65% of the gas and fuel oil supply to the eastern half of the state, you can expect major increases in $$$$$.

[eglide]

11. Supply and demand was my point.

I know people here in OH that are filling up everything that will hold gas. Lawnmowers, gas cans and anything else with a gas tank. That certainly will cause demand to outstrip supply in the short term and increase prices. That happened around here just after Katrina. Regular gas over $3.10. Now it is down to the high $2.30's in several places just 3 weeks later. Panic induced buying will indeed increase prices. And no refinery has yet been destroyed from Rita.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

12. I get your point. A spike in demand is as bad as a trough in supply

it ends up being the same thing, in economic terms.

which is what will probably happen anyway, as people's emotions take over and they rush to fill up BEFORE the prices rise.

There was a toilet paper shortage for the same reason in one of the scandanavian countries a while back. Then, the market fell to hell because everyone had stored a year's supply of the stuff.

[SmokingJacket]

13. Here they went up almost a dollar, down less than fifty cents.

We're still paying WAY more than before Katrina. Now they're going up again...

I doubt I'll ever see pre-Katrina prices again.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

14. methinks you are onto the equation

up $1, down $0.50, and so forth.
Good way to mentally prepare the sheeple for incredible profits for Mr. Gas Industry. "Golly gee, the prices fell, BY 50 CENTS! REJOICE! Praise the Lard!"

[cmf]

15. I don't think it will be that bad

The Houston area refineries are going to be back online soon. Port Arthur and Lake Charles are a different story, but the reports that I'm seeing is that the damage to those areas isn't as bad as it could have been.

I think that you may see some spikes over $5 in the East and Midwest, but it won't linger up there for long.

[Mr_Spock]

16. Yesterday's news.

It wasn't that bad a storm after all - I was right - it did basically fall apart and hit the less populated border areas...