Are we on the verge of an economic depression?

[benburch]

There is no official definition of an economic depression; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_depression

But as I scan various unofficial definitions, I think we are almost into one right now.

I studied economics with a protege of Milton Friedman when I was at the University of Chicago, and from a point of view of modern capitalist economics, the Bush** Gang are doing everything WRONG.

Are there any folks out there with more economics creds than I have who would care to comment?

Thanks!

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. I have a gut feeling that we are. :^(

[Tace]

2. Not More Economic Creds -- But Some Financial Journalistic Ones...

I was a wire service editor for a number of years, some of them on the UPI Financial Desk in New York, and at Market News Service, at their New York bureau.

I've since done some trading of financial and commodity futures, and keep up on economics, finance and the markets in an informal way.

IMHO we are in for very dark times, indeed.

It really seems to be a question, not of "if," but "when."

I fully expect not only a depression, but complete collapse of the international financial system. The dollar, and all other currencies would be scrapped.

This is what I expect to witness within a decade, certainly two.

On a shorter time scale... we could stumble along for another few months, or few years, before things start to get REALLY nasty.

Just my two cents. Take 'em with a grain of salt.

On Edit: Here's a recent blog entry by Peak Oil Proponent James Kunsler. I figure his take is interesting here:

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/

[spuddonna]

37. I totally agree...

We are looking at a gigantic worldwide credit collapse ala the 1930's... it's only a matter of time.

I'm in the IT industry and I can see even more layoffs ahead. I wonder, what were the safest professions in the 1930's?

[YapiYapo]

95. It won't be comparable with 1930's

Really, if there is a collapse it will make 1930's look like a walk in the park.
In the 1930's 30% of the citizens were working on the agriculture industry, now it's only 2%.This mean no fall back plan to work at the family farm until things got better,this also probably mean food shortage.That's the optimistic scenario without major war for resource.

[FreedomAngel82]

97. Yes

This is why the next two elections are very important. We have to do what we can to take back the house and senate next year so we can get rid of the voting machine's in time for 2008.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. I would think so, but you would never know it from the crowded

restaurants/freeways/shopping centers/ and home prices. The weird thing is that other than entry level/retail/ and government/govenment funded employment I see very little career choices anymore.

[NancyG]

106. High end glass art market doing best

I make a living working in glass and metal. My fellow artists that make high end art find the market is excellent. I'm in the mid-range and doing fine, but it depends on the part of the country the gallery is in. Mid-range is supposed to be hurting most. Wholesale craft shows are pretty empty, but those there are buying with strong sales.

My mother was a beautician in the depression and women always would pay a quarter to get their hair done to feel better.

Current day women buy earrings for the same reason. Just shipped huge orders of earrings today.

[blogslut]

4. sadly, i think yes.

No economic cred here. Just looking at things from a layman's perspective:

Massive deficit

Unending, expensive war

Tax cuts/Tax shelters for corporations/rich

Possibly half a million people unemployed/displaced due to Katrina and perhaps Rita.

Add the cost of rebuilding devestated lands because of the storms.

[Kazak]

10. I have a feeling...

future hurricane seasons aren't going to be getting any better for a while (on top of this year's rebuilding projects...).

:scared:

[blogslut]

17. After Katrina...

...I called my GOP sister. I try not to talk politics with her because I love her and oddly, she's the kindest, most giving person I know.

The first thing out of her mouth when I mentioned Katrina was:

"I'm afraid this is going to put us in a depression."

sigh :(

[ret5hd]

5. i don't know...i think so...i don't know...

what i do know is i have a terrible feeling in my gut...almost nausea. this feeling also has other powers...it whispers in my ear, but only with vague phrases like "everything is going wrong" or "they want to destroy everything".

we have people in power that despise the country we live(d) in...they don't want to change it, they want to destroy it. they despise the fact that children do not inherit their parents debts, they despise the fact that laborers don't work till they die, they despise the fact that the poor accident victim lies in the same emergency room bed as the rich heart attack victim did an hour before.

they despise us...and i despise them. maybe that's enough talk from me about depression for one day.

and maybe next time i will get around to answering the question that was proffered, rather than rambling. but i wouldn't bet a WHOLE lot on it.

[bryant69]

6. A major investing firm made a presentation last week

And they said their might be a recession next year. Their belief relates to interest rates - the short term interest rates keep going up, while long term interest rates are not going up at the same rate. The short ones are set by the Fed; long ones are set by the market.

So while Greenspan and co are focused on inflation; the market doesn't agree. Which might lead to an economic adjustment also known as a rescession.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Zynx]

36. A recession is very likely. Just a stall in home prices would cause one.

The consumer side of the economy is completely reliant on the current rate of home price increases to take on more debt, but the current rate of appreciation is, by every measure, completely out of the norm and a correction or at least a stall is likely nationwide. In some areas they will drop sharply just like LA and Boston did back in the early 1990s. LA for example dropped 22% in the early 1990s from an article I read on CNNMoney that I can't seem to find now. This run up has rivaled or surpassed virtually any seen before in terms of its scope and breadth despite only a marginal improvement in fundamentals.

[Rainscents]

7. YES! It's just around the corner!

I heard yesterday on Thom Hartmann, China is going to be demending for all their money (loans) back from USA within next few weeks! When and if this happen, we will go into instant deep depression.

[benburch]

9. I missed that!

Even though I edit the shows, a lot of it passes by me at 8X speed!

If that happens we are FUCKED.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Who Would They Sell All Their Crap To If America Was Broke?

eom

[Maple]

14. The other 190 countries

in the world.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Hmmmm

"The other 190 countries"


California by itself has a higher GDP than one hundred and eighty one of them...

[benburch]

20. Not for much longer. nt

[Maple]

32. You should check around the world

now and then.

Surprises are waiting for ya.

[Dark]

39. You should stop assuming that America is on its knees.

We're not as bad off as the doom and gloom crowd would have you think.

We control 50% of the world's wealth. Outsourcing + the slave labor market means if our economy goes down, so does China's, India's, and pretty much every country in the world.

That is one advantage of free trade. No sane leader in the world would dare do something as stupid as what Hartmann is suggesting.

[Maple]

42. You should stop assuming America runs the world

Because I'm afraid you don't.

And the world will get along fine without you.

Just like they did before your recent arrival.

[CoffeeCat]

147. Wow...very powerful post...

...so few words--but they packed a punch.

I tend to be verbose, so I'm always intrigued--and impressed--when someone makes a remarkable point using very few words.

Kudos.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Hmmmmm

Rankings from different sources
The World Factbook

According to The World Factbook published by the CIA, if California were an independent nation, it would have had the ninth largest economy in the world<10>.

This assumes that California's gross state product is $1.5 trillion.

California Legislative Analyst's Office

According to the California Legislative Analyst's Office, if California were an independent nation, it would have had the sixth largest economy in the world<11>.

California Department of Finance

According to the California Department of Finance, if California were an independent nation, it would have had the seventh largest economy in the world<12>.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California

[Maple]

44. Published by the CIA

and we know how accurate they are hmmmm? LOL

I've seen their 'factbook' on my own country...trust me...don't trust the CIA factbooks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. The Numbers Are Also Provided By The California Department

Of Finance And California Legilslative Analyst's Office....


I don't think any dispassionate observer would dispute all three sources...

[Maple]

46. Well see...you're not a 'dispassionate observer'

and you've recently discovered how much your govt lies to you.

Most Americans don't even know who their largest trading partner is, much less what is traded, or what the amounts are.

So govts can say anything

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Canada Is Our Largest Trading Partner...

Whatever happens to us will happen to Canada second....

[Maple]

50. We are

but it won't. Sorry. Yer on yer own.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. I Believe Your Economy Follows Ours...

I also believe the only country that was hit harder by our Great Depression was Canada and it took longer to recover...

[Maple]

61. You believe a lot of things

but belief and truth are very different things.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

79. OK...

Me- "I Believe Your Economy Follows Ours... I also believe the only country that was hit harder by our Great Depression was Canada and it took longer to recover..."

You- . You believe a lot of things but belief and truth are very different things."


A third party....




1929–1939 – The Great Depression
The Roaring Twenties saw boom times in Canada. Unemployment was low; earnings for individuals and companies were high. But prosperity came to a halt with the stock market collapse in New York, Toronto, Montréal and around the world in October 1929. (See 1929—Stock Market Crash.) The crash set off a chain of events that plunged Canada and the world into a decade-long depression. It was the beginning of the Dirty Thirties.


The Great Depression caused Canadian workers and companies great hardship. Prices deflated rapidly and deeply. Business activity fell sharply. There was massive unemployment—27% at the height of the Depression in 1933. Many businesses were wiped out: in Canada, corporate profits of $396 million in 1929 became corporate losses of $98 million in 1933. Between 1929 and that year, the gross national product dropped 43%. Families saw most or all of their assets disappear. Governments around the world, including Canada’s, put up high tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers and businesses, but that only created weaker demand and made the Depression worse. Canadian exports shrank by 50% from 1929 to 1933.

The link.....

Drum roll please.....


http://canadianeconomy.gc.ca/english/economy/1929_39depression.html

[Maple]

82. Ahem...Canada ....AND the world

although we didn't have nearly as tough a time as you did. And many others had a worse time of it than you did.

I'm sorry, but you're wasting your time playing games with this.

Precisely the attitude that gets you in so much shit in the world.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

89. How Am I Playing Games...

I merely cited an obvious source....


The pissser is the genesis of this silly debate is I said if California was a nation it would have the sixth, seventh, or ninth largest GDP in the world...


I doubt any serious person would dispute that...

[Maple]

90. You're arguing about the nature of Canada

with a Canadian.

And you're insisting US stats on other countries are the only ones that count.

That's 2 sources of hilarity right there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

99. No... I'm Using Your Own Government's Website..

http://canadianeconomy.gc.ca/english/economy/index.cfm


My only obligation is to the truth...


I am a voluntary exile from the faith based community...

[Maple]

102. Which has nothing to do with anything else you've said

[DemocratSinceBirth]

107. I Think I Have Made Two Points In This Thread...

One can be more or less intantly verfified or and one can be only be verified or disputed in the fullness of time...


Point One- If California was a nation its GDP would be the sixth, seventh, or ninth largest in the world depending on your source.....



and


Point Two- I do not believe a depression is impending....


As an aside I am always looking to hone my surfing internet skills...
If you can show me where the wikipedia information about Canada is fallacious I will change it myself...

[Maple]

111. Yes. A..you're an American....and B. you're an American

and as such, no one can tell you anything.

Which one of us is in trouble again?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

116. What Does That Have To Do With Cali's GDP?

eom

[Maple]

117. Nothing whatever

sort of the way the rest of your posts have anything to do with the topic at hand. :7

[DemocratSinceBirth]

123. I Was Merely Reponding To You

eom

[Maple]

127. Nah...yer just horsing around

on a Friday nite.

Guess how I knew. :7

[DemocratSinceBirth]

92. Depending On Your Source...

eom...

[Maple]

103. and yours is American

nuff said

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Here's The Link For Canada?

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ca.html


Where is it not true?

[Maple]

49. LOL most of it

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. Give Me Specifics Please...

It seems like it's cut and dry...

Life expectancy...

Infant Mortality....

Leading Exports....

[Maple]

60. Of course it's cut and dried

The CIA wrote it.

Canada is a constitutional monarchy...has been a monarchy since the 1500's

The only one disputing boundaries and drugs is the US.

We have 2 official languages, French and English...and the third one most spoken is Chinese.

Services...that would be financial and high tech.

We changed from a Dominion to a solely separate country...'dominion' has a specific legal meaning.

We have lots of political parties...only 4 get in...and one is solely provincial.

Our debt is less than half one years GDP, and we have no deficit. Most university grads in the OECD

Lots of crap here

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. We Are Quibbling Here...

"Canada is a constitutional monarchy...has been a monarchy since the 1500's"


You make Canada sound like Jordan or Morocco....


The queen's a figurehead;just like in the UK...

[Maple]

66. It's a constitutional monarchy

and is run exactly that way...all authority stems from it.

The Queen has specific duties and privileges as a monarch.

If she was merely a figurehead, I assure you we wouldn't keep a monarchy.

I know Americans like to believe that monarchs say 'we are not amused' or 'off with their heads'....but there is a balance between absolute monarchy and none at all.

One we're very comfortable with.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. Wikipedia Says It's A Parliamentary Democracy...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada


"Canada is a federation of ten provinces and three territories. Initially constituted through the British North America Act of 1867, it is governed as a parliamentary democracy with Queen Elizabeth II as head of state, represented by Governor General Adrienne Clarkson."



Oh, and the other information at wikipedia tends to confirm the information in the CIA Factbook..



"The Queen has specific duties and privileges as a monarch."


Seriously...

How does the Queen make policy?

[Maple]

71. Wikipedia is a bunch of volunteers

who often know zik-all about what they write.

Which is why so much of it is often in dispute.

It is not a reputable source.

Seriously..this is why you get your ass kicked in so much of the world...because you believe anything you're told. By any kind of source.

Iraq looked like a pushover according to the CIA and Wikipedia too didn't it....hmmm?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

77. I'll Play On Your Terms....

We have established that you don't trust wikipedia and you don't trust the CIA Fact Book..


Here's the link to wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada

Please give me a link of your own that disputes the information in wikipedia...

[Maple]

80. Movie: The King and I...Yul Brynner

I saw it when I was in grade 5

The only scene I remember is the one where the king showed the governess the map she was to use in teaching his children.

It showed his kingdom, Siam, as bigger than any of the surrounding countries.

When she protested that it wasn't remotely accurate, he agreed. All the other countries were actually bigger than Siam.

But he thought it would give his children...future rulers...confidence when attacking others.

You can see the tragic disaster in the making here.

Map of Siam = American 'stats' on Canada...and every other country in the world.

Hence your 5 unsuccessful inavasions of Canada, not to mention Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Your problem, not mine.

[Ravenseye]

57. Oh Come On.

What there is innacurate?

Are the main natural resources of Canada not iron ore, nickel, zinc, copper, gold, lead, molybdenum, potash, diamonds, silver, fish, timber, wildlife, coal, petroleum, natural gas, and hydropower?

How bout the total population life expentancy of 80.1 years? Is that off?

[Maple]

62. See previous post

I'm sorry, but the CIA is selling you snake oil.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. You Have Yet To Disprove Anything In There...

How about giving us a link from a third party that contradicts the information there...

[Maple]

67. You figured you knew all about Iraq too.

See, this is the kind of thing that gets you into so much shit in the world.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. Nah... It's A Fact Book... You Are Trying To Make More Out Of It...

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. Nah... It's A Fact Book... You Are Trying To Make More Out Of It...

eom

[Maple]

72. A CIA fact book is not a reputable source

Sorry.

But do tell us how 911 happened again with such a trustworthy group on call eh?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

73. The Same Information On Canada Was In Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada


I believe there is a mechanism at Wikipedia to challenge information that is incorrect or fallacious...

Are Wikipedia and the CIA in cahoots?

[Maple]

81. The movie: The King and I. Yul Brynner

I saw it when I was in grade 5

The only scene I remember is the one where the king showed the governess the map she was to use in teaching his children.

It showed his kingdom, Siam, as bigger than any of the surrounding countries.

When she protested that it wasn't remotely accurate, he agreed. All the other countries were actually bigger than Siam.

But he thought it would give his children...future rulers...confidence when attacking others.

You can see the tragic disaster in the making here.

Map of Siam = American 'stats' on Canada...and every other country in the world.

Hence your 5 unsuccessful inavasions of Canada, not to mention Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Your problem, not mine.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

83. "Your problem, not mine."

If wikipedia is misleading me and others it's all our problem....


Pray tell, where is wikipedia lying about Canada....


They have a mechanism for challenging incorrect information... If they are lying about Canada I will use their own mechanism to put a halt to their perfidy.... Post haste....

[Maple]

84. Yes it is

and no, Canadians on the whole don't care about Wikipedia or what it says.

Whyever would we?

It's American, and operates under the laws of Florida.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia

Not our problem...yours.

We're used to strange American beliefs about us, and the rest of the world.

Mostly we all just go :eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

85. If They Are Maligning Canada You Should Be Outraged!!!

The internets is seen by the whole world...


Here's a link to their editing process...




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:How_to_edit_a_page

"Wikipedia is a wiki which means that anyone can easily edit any unprotected article and have those changes posted immediately to that page."


You can PM me after you make the changes....

[Maple]

86. LOL noop

We find it both funny, and useful.

Just like your movies about our singing mounties. :rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

91. I Never Saw That Movie...

Last movie that revolved around Canada I saw was The Score...

[Maple]

104. There were several

Very musical they were...even the horses marched in step

We found them hilarious

[tabasco]

113. So you speak for all Canadians now?

You seem to think you know it all, oh wise one.

All that means to me is that you have stopped learning.

Why don't you provide the info that was requested instead of making unsupported claims?

[Maple]

115. LOL at 60 I've been around long enough

to know how the majority of Canadians feel...even if I hadn't lived through all this...and I have.

No, I haven't stopped learning...no red herrings thank you.

Hey...go listen to the CIA... I don't mind.

It's worked so well in Iraq.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

118. What Does Iraq Have To Do With Commonly Accepted Facts About Canada?

eom

[Maple]

119. We live in igloos. We travel by dog sleds

Those are commonly accepted 'facts' about Canada. At least in the US.

They are similar to the facts you had about flowers and dancing in Iraq.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

124. Now... I Can Just Repeat My Own Posts

What Does Iraq Have To Do With Commonly Accepted Facts About Canada?

[Maple]

128. I dunno

but if you invade us again, you won't get flowers and dancing here either. :D

[Pooka Fey]

150. You paint with too broad of a brush.

Complexity and detail cannot be realized in this fashion.

[jmowreader]

100. It's a very simple mechanism, too

Go to the page you don't like and click "Edit This Page" at the top. You can change it to anything you like.

[Maple]

105. Not to my benefit

and not to Canada's benefit to supply you with accurate information.

5 invasions, remember?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

110. That's A Selfish Attitude...

I though we all believed in fraternity, liberty, and equality...

[Maple]

112. LOL I like it

and that's the motto of France...not Canada.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

120. Are The French Not Our Fraternal Brothers

You're disappointing me...

[Maple]

121. You mean your 'freedom' brothers?

The ones with the fries?
:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

126. Isn't Thar A Form Of Prejudice Or Bigotry?

When I was in the fourth grade our teacher taught us not to blame an individual for the actions of a group....

I'd like to learn how I am responsible for a bunch of yahoo's who want to rename a fried potato...

[Maple]

130. Well see I call em

fellow countrymen...and I like poutine.

Your problems with language, geography and mottos are yer own.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

132. Believe Me I Knew The Etymology Of That Saying...

I guess you're not big on brotherhoood....

Don't look down...

Your ethnocentrism is showing....

[Maple]

134. Sorry...I had seal flipper pie in my mouth

Bursh brush....Now then...when Americans can teach Canucks anything about brotherhood...there will be 2 moons in the sky.

And they'll both be hot pink neon and flashing.

Now if you'll excuse me for a mo...I have a bearclaw around here someplace.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

139. There You Go Again...

We are individuals like you...


Don't throw us in one big stew....


It reflects poorly on us


And poorly on you....

This poem sucks....

But I was never good at haiku...

Hell this even Haiku


But I'm a dumb American....

What else could I do...

[Maple]

140. Good god! Reagan, is that you??

Hmmm stew...sounds good.

Maybe cariboubou tonight...as we call it.

Beats pemmican.

Sorry about yer nationality there Gipper.

Cross the border and get saved. :7

[MADem]

108. Why do neighbors fight????????

REPRINTED FROM THE CANADIAN ENCYCLOPEDIA:
http://www.city.saskatoon.sk.ca/org/clerks_office/archives/great_depression.html Few countries were affected as severely as Canada by the worldwide Depression of the 1930s. It is estimated that between 1929 and 1933 Gross National Expenditure declined by 42%, by the latter year 30% of the labour force was unemployed, and 1 in 5 Canadians became dependent upon government relief for survival. Until WWII the unemployment rate never declined below 12%. The Depression's severity was aggravated by its uneven impact, a rudimentary social-welfare structure and misguided government policy. .....

Gov't of CANADA WEBSITE: http://canadianeconomy.gc.ca/english/economy/1929_39depression.html
The Great Depression caused Canadian workers and companies great hardship. Prices deflated rapidly and deeply. Business activity fell sharply. There was massive unemployment—27% at the height of the Depression in 1933. Many businesses were wiped out: in Canada, corporate profits of $396 million in 1929 became corporate losses of $98 million in 1933. Between 1929 and that year, the gross national product dropped 43%. Families saw most or all of their assets disappear. Governments around the world, including Canada’s, put up high tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers and businesses, but that only created weaker demand and made the Depression worse. Canadian exports shrank by 50% from 1929 to 1933.


While all of Canada suffered greatly, the regions and communities hit hardest were those dependent on primary industries such as farming, mining and logging, because commodity prices plummeted around the globe. Thus, the three Prairie provinces, where the wheat economy collapsed, and the municipalities where mining and logging were a mainstay saw the greatest decrease in per capita income between 1928 and 1933.


The economy began to recover, slowly, after 1933. However, the Depression did not end until 1939, when the outbreak of the Second World War created demand for war materials.

****************
The truth is, at the end of the day, that the Great Depression messed Canada up as much if not more than the US. The truth also is that we have an asshole for a leader. Two truths, sad truths.

Again I ask, why must neighbors, who have cared for each other for so long, and agree in broad terms what is needed to make this world a better place, fight??????

I guess it makes greedy bastards who do not have the best interests of the planet at heart rather happy at the end of the day. Don't fall into their trap.

[Maple]

114. Yes, already posted

It said Canada and 'the rest of the world.'

The Great Depression was called 'Great' for a reason.

It didn't just affect the US...and no, it didn't hit us as hard as the US. Our biggest problem at the time was being tied to Britain's economy. They were hit...we just got the fringes of theirs.

We were not in a big trading partnership with the US at the time.

Why do neighbours fight? I dunno..yer the only country that's ever invaded us. 5 times in fact. You tell me.

[MADem]

Hell, don't blame me, my folks were not even here for that shit

I'm from one of those immigrant families, ya see.

It was those Brit ancestors on this side doing that invading crap--and your side clearly got over it, seeing as you haven't given Queenie the bum's rush!!!

It's just silly to argue over that sort of nonsense. The US is not the same US that it was in 1812, and Canada neither.

I like Canada, I find it a fine country full of wonderful people and a brilliant culture, and were I in charge, you could be assured that I would not invade you. I would hope you would return the favor...and in the interim, forgive us our dictator, who stole two elections. Shit happens....

[Maple]

131. The US invaded Canada

and we were allied with Britain. So we burned down the White House.

We like the Brits...well except for Tony the arse there.

And maybe Camilla. :7

Yeah, we've had some strange leaders too. We sympathize.

Le shit...c'est vrai.

[MADem]

136. Well, I like Canada and Canadians

And I'm not going to let history get in the way of my opinion!!

Overall, a fine nation with a good sense of priorities. I'd like to think we will get back on track one day soon, as well.

[Maple]

137. I like Americans too

and in spite of Bush, we've sent help for Rita...so I think the people of the two countries are generally okay.

[MADem]

142. And there ARE people here who appreciate such kindnesses

and will not forget...even though the idiot government does things like burn the food the UK sent...

Eh, this too, will pass. I can feel it in the air, it's rather like a zit that cannot pop soon enough, though. It's a lot like the Nixon era, feels the same way--a lot of anger, fear and malaise in the air, and then there's a slight miasma of hope, as well...!!!

[Maple]

145. Yeah, if we could put everything on fast forward

and be past this crowd...and I remember thinking the same thing about Nixon in those final days. Martha Mitchell dead, Nixon talking to himself, and Ford waiting in the wings.

[MADem]

125. Dupe agin, scuse the mouse...sorry

[MADem]

109. Dupe, sorry

[Maple]

122. S'okay...I'm having fun here.

[benburch]

15. Themselves.

They are turning into their own best marketplace. Like we used to be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Can't Buy Too Much Crap With A $5,600.00 Per Capita GDP

eom

[benburch]

18. Times 2 billion people...

That makes a bigger marketplace than us.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Think Your Population Figures Might Be Off By 700 Million Or So

And their GDP is about 60% of our with almost four times as many people...

[benburch]

23. You may be right, I was going from memory.

But the fact remains that they are growing both in size and per-capita GDP, and their deomestic market is growing rapidly. They really don't need us, ESPECIALLY if we are buying on credit we can never repay.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Believe Me They Need Us To Be Solvent As Much As We Need To Be Solvent...

The world might not be able to live with America but it can't live without it...

[benburch]

25. I hope you are right.

Because I think we will find out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Don't Worry About It...

China doesn't want to offend it's best customer.....


The world is a very small place.....


Too bad the current leadership doesn't realize it...

[benburch]

27. I think those new glasses of yours have a rose tint...

but I still hope you are right.

[nick303]

133. China would do just as much damage to itself as it would to us

which is why it continues the situation we are in now.

[Ladyhawk]

30. Where did Hartmann get this information?

And why is China doing this? Because of shrub?

[Rainscents]

75. I believe so. I believe, China wants to bring us down now due to the fact

that, we're trying to take over the world by invending country that has OIL! China want to stop us now, not later!

[Ladyhawk]

94. I guess they don't care about those of us who don't support him.

It's the same old story. The politicians have to have their pissing contest, then spend other people's lives.

[Dark]

40. Yes, I'm sure that they would jump at the chance to utterly destroy

the global economy.

[anitar1]

41. Treasury Bonds. n/t

[loudsue]

53. Do you have a link to that? I missed it!

:hi: I love Thom Hartmann! He usually knows a lot about what's going on.

:kick:

[Rainscents]

74. You need to archive his show from yesterday!

I believe you can find it at WhiteRose and downloaded. Yesterday was 9/22/05 I believe, it was on his Second or the third hour of the show when he was talking about this.

[loudsue]

88. Thanks! n/t

[converted_democrat]

55. Is that even possible??

I mean, isn't most of the debt structured? How can they just call in their loans if that is the case? Is it really possible the could do that, and how would it occur?


edit- to make clearer

[Rainscents]

76. I'm not really sure how they could do it, obviously, China seems to think

they can.

[A HERETIC I AM]

138. UMMMM.....China hasn't "Loaned" us money. They have bought USTreasury

Bonds.

They are BONDS. They have a due date. They can't just "Demand" their money.

[tom_paine]

8. Well, I think great hardships are definitely coming

Even if nothing else goes wrong, that huge chunk of baby Boomers are going to be retiring soon, and they are going to impact the economy across the board with ripple effect.

Had we followed the path of Clintonomics (yes, I know that many of the same trends speeding up now were only slowed, not reversed, during the Last Days of the Old Republic, but still it was ultimately a fiscally responsible platform) we would have been ready to brace for the impact.

As Katrina and Rita show us, we are a Third-World Nation seeking it's level.

We still have far to fall before the rest of the nation cathes up with our government and media in the Third-World.

Make no mistake...these are the Good Old Days.

Pity those who come after, in a trash-filled Third-World Economy, no real Middle-Class anymore, and the leaden fist of Tyranny and Propaganda awaiting anyone who dares speak against the Imperial Family and their Minions.

[qanda]

12. Doesn't matter what anyone else is

I know that my household is. It's getting harder and harder to pay for basic needs and it's getting to be very depressing.

[benburch]

13. Ultimately, that is the best measure. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Yes

[leftofthedial]

28. verge?

[Mairead]

29. We're in one, imo

The only reason we're not seeing the same things seen in the early '30s is that the ruling class has learned how to hide things better, there are more NGOs providing food, many 'poverty activities' have been criminalised, and people are clinging to the last shreds of the safety net.

Most people are too busy to go looking under rugs, so as long as the ruling class can hide what's going on, they're safe.

If everyone who's out of work had to go downtown periodically and queue up in the street, we'd be seeing some damned big lines.

[Jim Warren]

31. It's so effing close now

I can feel it's breath

[rbajai]

33. yep, no matter what Bush claims about the so called strong economy

we have a perfect storm that could cause a crash. Housing bubble may pop, leaving many bankrupt and homeless. In particular those who bought into risky no-interest loans. Interest rates keep going up, further fueling the notion that the housing market might crash. Oil shortages...wages are not keeping pace with cost of living...gas prices...everything is so damn expensive...increasing personal/national debt, Bush running our credibility into the ground...

yes, indeed, i do believe we are in for trouble.

[newyawker99]

35. Hi rbajai!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[onecent]

34. kick This is scarey

[Vinca]

38. I think it depends on whether or not China, Japan and Korea

let our debt ride forever. Our charge and spend, spend and charge Republican administration has sent us down the black hole for decades. If they continue this ludicrous economic "plan," we're sure to have another depression.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. Our Debt As A Percentage Of GDP Is Lower Than Japan And Most Of The EU ...

eom

[Ksec]

58. yes, but our debt is financed with worthless bonds we print

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. If You Think Your Bonds Are Worthless Try And Sell Em..

I'll bet you get your money back less interest if you call em before the maturity date...


Would there be a problem if every single person cashed in their bonds at once....

Of course....

It would be akin to every single American getting in their car at the same time and hitting the road...

It's not gonna happen...

[Ksec]

63. Im saying the Chinese and the Japanese are going

to tire of financing our debt with bonds that have little return. The dollar is falling at 4% a year. As soon as they stop loaning us money, were done.

[Ksec]

54. My area is already in a depression

No shit.

If were a barometer of whats to come, fasten yer seat bealts cause its gonna be a bumpy ride.

I live in the rust belt area. As we go so goes the country.

[Gregorian]

78. If we can't make our loan payments

The only economics I know are personal.

And I am thinking that to make our loan payments, we have to earn money. But we continue to increase the debt; The devoloping countries are just starting to become competitive; We don't have what we used to have in the way of productivity.


I don't know. But it's ugly. I mean, when the debt equals $30k for each American, I just don't see how we can get out from under it.

But then there is a wide open energy conversion market that is far greater than any computer boom. And we could find ourselves riding that all the way to solvency.

Like the existence of God- we'll find out, won't we?

[KharmaTrain]

87. Where Ya Been The Last Couple Years?

What the definition of a "depression". In my book this is not having enough money to meet the bills. It means unemployment or under-employement. It means inflation outstripping income. It means a deteriorating of the quality of life (health) and lifestyles of a vast number of the people.

Look at what's been going on since 2001...the middle and low classes have been eaten alive. Outsourcing, high oil prices, poor or no health care...the thing that matter and define "quality of life".

Using this barometer...I can say the country's been in a slow depression since the Raygun days, but it's most notable under this regime and its destruction and pillaging of the federal government.

And the bills haven't even come due yet. Expect this to be a very loooooooong, cold winter.

[pitohui]

93. it seems doubtful

rebuilding the nation will be a HUGE economic stimulus if they give the job to actual americans as opposed to illegal immigrants willing to work for less than min. wage which i guess is always a possibility w. this crew in charge

[FreedomAngel82]

96. It should be pretty obvious I think

With the hurricanes and Iraq draining us... And the jobs still going over seas. :(

[darkworkz]

98. economic depression? Only if we choose to be...

This is what I mean by the subject line.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4865193&mesg_id=4865466

It may be way to simple for some, but it's got a proven track record in the US.

[MoonRiver]

101. Does a bear shit in the woods?

:shrug:

[CrackpotAmerica]

129. We are In More of a Political Transition: Please Read :)

Our nation and China are the last "superpower(S)"

US Policy before the fall of the Soviet Union consisted of only one thing:

CONTAINMENT OF COMMUNISM
(i.e. containment of expansionist government)

After that, we began to make our first transition. US government struggled to adapt policies to meet the newer (however smaller) challenges such as Islamic extremism.

In this first transition, however, we were lucky to have a President who utilized vast resources to improve domestic social issues, shrinking government spending simultaneously, I might add.

Somewhere in the midst of this, Mr. Rumsfeld, Mr Cheyney, Both Bush Bros and their father, Mr. Kristol, etc., were plotting to birth the new policy for the US. That Policy was and is:

EXPANSIONIST GOVERNMENT
(i.e. American Imperialism)

Various crimes were committed and lies on top of that caused numerous and arrogant failures of our national security. Thus:

SEPTEMBER 11, 2001.

After which, more crimes, more lies and more failures (as Mr. Kerry would say, "more of the same.)"

And so, here we are today. Smack-dab in the middle of the new transition.

Our President has committed crimes so dangerous and has failed us all so recklessly, I am afraid that the "transition" will resemble more of a "revolution." However fearful I may be, I look forward to his downfall and shall use all within my humble means to ensure it's swift occurrence.

. . . Just as I am certain all 79,000 plus of you and millions across our nation will!

[CountAllVotes]

141. possibly but,

When you compare what is going on today with what was happening c. 1930, we see many many similarities:

Check out this link:

TIMELINE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm

:kick:

[CrackpotAmerica]

143. I agree: PLEASE READ THE POST ABOVE THIS ONE

These things are all within this transition.

Sorry, I failed to mention that. The economics of it would be too long a read!

Thanks for posting that. I couldn't find a good example..

[CountAllVotes]

146. yes I read your post

I was responding to it with the link I provided. The similarities are very very striking.


So yeah, we are either there or well on our way there. The final stage - the child labor - what we are seeing now with * giving the Saudis and Kuwait the approval to allow child sex "slaves" so to speak.

It is a different year but the same thing is going on.

I would recommend to anyone reading this - if you have money in the stock market, get it out of there as soon as you can. This whole thing is going to blow big time.

The best jobs to have during such times is that of a mortician or even a doctor/nurse. Other jobs may end up being a newly named WPA type of program to repair our infrastructure.

In the meantime, main difference - NO IRAQ war ... NONE. That is what makes this even worse right now.

:kick:

[Podface]

135. My gut says Fuck No.

Very serious crisis brought on by chimp boy- absolutely. It's going to get rough. We have a long way to go before we reach the 15% - 25% depression era unemployment though. We have so many safety nets built in now (that barely catch people, but they do for most). Let's not forget that when banks closed, people lost their money...period. No federal assistance was there. Added to that - losing a job, or not being able to hire people if your business went south because your money was in the bank. Ugly stuff.

We have despicable poverty in this country that we should all be ashamed of in my opinion, but we are better off than most.

I'm no pro but I've studied it. I also think that this government, if forced to could easily stimulate the economy. If people keep on getting pissed off and we do hit a serious recession ( I think right after an awful holiday retail season), Bushco will be forced to listen to congress who will be grasping at straws to save their asses in November.

Repeal tax breaks for wealthy, tax incentives for small businesses, penalties for exporting jobs, public works initiatives. And no fucking Haliburton.

Ever wonder what 500 billion for America in the form of public works projects would look like?

"Just build a fucking thing. I don't care what it is, just build it." - Lewis Black

[redacted]

144. Depression? We are not even in a recession. Not to say that Bushy isn't

doing everything they can to F it up.

Some thoughts:

2 things 1. economies move very slowly, 2. I saw a speech of Robert Gordon of Northwestern a few years ago (during the recession) who used productivity to explain why there was no way the US could have a double dip recession, let alone a depression

Things were good not that long ago and they are stagnant now, but stagnant is far far away from depression.

Also profGAC is an economist -- do a search for some of his econ posts. Search for depression and profGAC

One last disjointed thought here -- everyone freaks out about the NOLA reconstruction cost, but what about the economic activity the rebuilding will create. Now it may not benefit the middle class in the way we want it, but it will contribute to the economy.

[Mabel Dodge]

148. This is what I see in my little corner of the world...

I've lived in the same upper middle class neighborhood in Cincinnati all my life. All of the sudden on my block there are three foreclosures, it has me wondering what's up. I know in the grand scheme of things this is nothing, but it does seem excessive.

[donheld]

149. I have a feeling our feds wouldn't tell us if we were in one or not.

They'd cook enough books long enough and blame someone else for it.