What Will Happen If We Withdraw From Iraq?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Serious Answers please

[Oreo]

1. Civil War

But I think it would happen either way. I just don't think our troops should be there when it starts.

And after the civil war, Iraq and Iran will become one country or will be very tight.

[Extend a Hand]

6. I agree

But it seems like there is a civil war already underway.
it may even turn into a regional war if the Shia in Iraq and Iran unite.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. IMHO Option 4 Seems UnRealistic

because the Sunnis would be the only ones without oil...

If I'm a Kurd or a Shia I'll take a state in the area where I am the majority tomorrow.....

[damntexdem]

15. Althought the Kurds and Shia would be well-advised to ...

make some concessions on oil revenue to the Sunnis, I certainly don't expect that to happen. That it would be the smart thing to do, and cheaper in the long run, will not overcome 13 centuries of hatred, nor recent decades of suffering from Sunni domination.

[Spazito]

3. Civil war, the same as if you stay except no more US soldiers

will die, no more sons and daughters to bury.

[welshTerrier2]

4. Other - Americans will stop dying and our futile efforts will cease

the US has a huge role to play in Iraq but it is not a military role ...

what will happen when the US leaves? insurgents will stop fighting the US and get down to resolving their differences ...

how will they resolve their differences?
with adequate multi-national support for rebuilding Iraq, hopefully the process will be peaceful ... there sure as hell are no guarantees ...

the main point, though, is that the US is an obstacle to Iraqis taking the next step ... we're destroying their cities and further alienating the rest of the world ... even Britain is talking about abandonning the "coalition" ... the only ones who are still "willing" are bush and his imperialist friends ...

[dretceterini]

7. This nonsense has been going on

for thousands of years. I see no reason for the US to be part of it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. It Became Part Of It When It Invaded And Occupied Iraq

eom

[the_spectator]

19. har-de-har har --

six thousand years to be exact, right? I'm not exactly sure what that joke is intended to imply, however.

[trof]

5. I guessing 4, but not peacefully.

Civil war first.

[cloud_chaser1]

9. I voted there will be civil war because.....

despite all that has been said and done, Iraqis simply want a government of their choice, not something imposed upon them by *.
Their history overflows with islamic doctrine and you cannot wipe that out overnight. They dont know the principles and equality, they are a male chauvenist society and they are not about to fully give women a voice. They pay lip service to equality while the troops are still there but one we leave, all bets are off. When they set up that government of theirs, one of their cardinal rules were that the countrey will operate along the lines of Sharia (Islamic Law) and Sharia is simply not compatrible with freedom and democracy. And as long as Sunnis and Shiites are at each others throats, forget democracy and peace and harmony.

[Lilith Velkor]

10. There already is a violent civil war

Our troops are just caught in the crossfire there.

[damntexdem]

11. Civil war was always in the cards.

I just hope the Kurds can stay out of it, go their own way, be left alone. If they are fooled with, they will kick some butt; but that will still make Kurdistan less viable, and threaten to bring in Turkey.

[marginlized]

12. Or no civil war

Some commentators argue that our presence there merely prolongs the current conflicts, that by getting out, we'll be letting the inevitable resolution occur.

Its not as if Iraq has ever been a real country. Its boundaries were drawn by the British/French/Americans after WWI. Arabia had been ocupied by Ottomens for centuries before that. They need to define their own political entities. And post Soviet Eastern Europe today is full of WWI constructions that disolved along ethnic and cultural lines.

[TheWraith]

13. Civil war.

Realistically, there are three possibilities:

1. Iraq will break up into three de facto states, with the south either formally or informally becoming part of Iran.

2. There will be a power struggle, resulting in a new dictator emerging to control the country.

3. There will be a major civil war, each faction looking for a different outcome.

My money is on #3, with a possible outcomes of #1 or #2. At this point, I see only one way to avoid a civil war. If some single charismatic nationalist leader came to represent the insurrection against the U.S., then Iraq might unite under the "hero of the rebellion." On the other hand, part of the insurgency's strength has been its lack of a centralized leadership--you can't cut the head off something that doesn't HAVE a head.

[lcordero2]

14. This "civil war" thing seems like a fabrication than anything else

Use these variables in order to put something together:

Basra incident
Abu Ghraib <---- keep in mind how the contractors didn't face any criminal indictments.
The large amount of "contractors" like Blackwater and Dynacorp.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Don't Think The Civil War Is Manufactured

I understand the theory that the Americans and Brits are committing some of these atrocities to create tribal warfare so there is a predicate for continued occupation but that is belied by the pre-invasion Iraq which was held together by Saddam's iron fist...


There were insurrections among the Kurds and Shias because they didn't want to be ruled by the Sunni minority... Now the Sunni minority doesn't want to be ruled by the Shia majority...

[lcordero2]

28. Believe what you want

I don't take anything that the MSM says at face value, I simply calculate what I would do if I was a scumbag with resources like so many people are in the gov't and in the press these days.

[Birthmark]

16. The same thing that's happening now.

A civil war. The difference is that no Americans will be killed if we pull out.

[Greyhound]

17. Option 3, and then the whole region disintegrates into another

giant clusterfuk, plunging the world economy (controlled by the oil industry) into chaos. This allows the Chinese to exert their influence to crush their hated enemies the Japanese (after invading Taiwan of course), and call their markers in from the U.S.
Then what? Will the nukes fly? What will the Russians do? One thing's certain, it will be interesting.

[LSK]

18. the Civil War will CONTINUE n/t

[BlueJac]

20. There already is a civil war.....

so what is the difference.


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1158590



Bush created the biggest mess in history!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. It's Beyond Sad...

I think defining the problem is not beyond our reach but solving it is....


I guess the devil's advocate would say it's not up to us to solve it....


That's a great debating point if Iraq wasn't in a region that controls over 40% of the world's oil supplies...


Trouble there could mean lights off for everybody...

[daninthemoon]

22. Short term we get "b", followed by a more stable "d"

[Quixote1818]

23. The Oil is in the wrong place for number 4 to work

The Civil War is going to be over land and Oil! Their is no getting around the fact that most of the oil is under Shiite land which leaves the Sunni's out in the cold. The Sunni's won't go peacefully until they get some black gold. Period!

It's probably 2 or 3 or a combo of both.

[leftofthedial]

25. a violent civil war is inevitable

whether we are there or not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Bush Screwed The Pooch

eom

[Redstone]

27. No more Americans will get killed there, for one thing.

And yes, I'm being serious here.

Damn good chance that fewer Iraqis would be ketting killed, too.

Redstone

[Darranar]

29. 2, or a combination of 2 and 3. n/t

[goodhue]

30. There already is violent civil war . . .

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/09/26/eveningnews/main886305.shtml

[hankthecrank]

31. Lessons not learned first time have to be repeated

Just as in Vietnam war. Nothing that they think will happen. The lessons from Vietnam was that people who live their do what they want not what you from the outside want for them. Money loss and loss of life will in the end make us leave! The people who are making money out of this will move on to the next big thing. Iraq will do what it wants in the end.

[Rainscents]

32. I don't like anyone of the poll... I want one it says...

Damages had done by US and it won't make any difference.

IRAQ is already in Civil war! Most of your questions don't make any sense!