Does Roy Moore stand a chance of getting elected governor?

[prolesunited]

Just wondering what others think.

[Gayla]

1. No.

Not just no; hell no!
Despite the red reputation we have down here, I truly believe
most church-going folks believe he is a fruitcake. Lucy Baxley
will most likely be our next Governor.

[walkon]

2. Honest vote = NO

Rigged vote = SURE

[oasis]

3. He's on Wolfie's show onCNN right now. Wolf's asking him about Harriet.

[spanone]

4. After a 2nd Bush* term, nothing surprises me.

Hell, he could be next Supreme Court Justice.

[oasis]

5. He's as nutty as any of the snake cult preachers in his neck of the woods.

And scary too. :scared:

[triguy46]

6. he'd be mainstream in OK. Once again, we need a bookie

to lay us the odds so we can turn DU into an online political casino!!

[jody]

7. Odds against but Alabama Repugs have been successful in leaking

false reports about Dem candidates for Governor and Senator just before the election. After the election, facts show the Dem candidate who lost was not guilty but to late to undo the damage.

Must Dems adopt the Repugs' "smear at the last minute campaign technique"?

[moobu2]

8. Yes,

He'll turn out the RW fruitcake church vote which is huge in Alabama..

[DanCa]

9. In a fair fight no but the gop dont fight fair.

[Elwood P Dowd]

10. No! Lucy Baxley would beat him

I know tons of repukes who can't stand Roy Moore. He probably won't even win the repuke nomination.

Lt Governor Lucy Baxley (D) has a good chance to beat incumbent Bob Riley (R),and she would skunk Moore in my opinion.

[prolesunited]

14. I'm not familiar with her

What are her credentials?

[peacebaby3]

17. She is the current Lt. Governor.

Her official site:

<http://www.ltgov.state.al.us/MeetLucy.htm>


Her bumperstickers and billboards say: I Love Lucy!

I think one of her billboards took the place of a billboard that had been up for years on I-65 N around the Autauga County area that said GO TO CHURCH OR THE DEVIL WILL GET YOU. I haven't been that far north in a while, but I have heard from friends in the area. The person who had that up must have died because it has been there forever.

[H2O Man]

11. He has been

threatening to split from the republican party, which makes it interesting. Does the party try to keep him happy? Or show him the door? You ask an interesting question.

I do not think he will be elected, but it would not shock me.

[nosmokes]

12. yes, moore could carry alabama.

it's sad, but true.

[QC]

20. Do you have any polling or other info to base that on?

If you do, please feel free to share.

[sonicx]

21. here's some

but this is just a GOP primary poll.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/8868

A new poll shows Roy Moore with a lead over Gov. Bob Riley in the race for the 2006 Republican gubernatorial nomination, a potential boost for the former chief justice should he decide to run for the office. A Mobile Register-University of South Alabama poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Moore with a lead of 8 percentage points over Riley in a hypothetical primary matchup. Moore drew support from 43 percent of respondents, while the governor garnered 35 percent. The statewide survey, published Sunday and conducted last Monday through Thursday, included responses from 400 adults who identified themselves as likely voters in the GOP primary. The results are supposed to be accurate to within plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Ousted from the Alabama Supreme Court over his refusal to follow a federal judge's order to remove a Ten Commandments office from the court building, Moore has been traveling the country speaking to conservative organizations and religious groups. The poll found that Moore had a favorable rating of 72 percent — a number University of Alabama political scientist William Stewart described as potentially "intimidating to the governor." When Greenville businessman Tim James was added to the mix, both Moore's and Riley's support dropped. But that matchup still pushed Moore's lead to 10 percentage points. James, a son of former Gov. Fob James who ran for governor in 2002, drew just 4 percent support.

Poll director Keith Nicholls, a political scientist at South Alabama, said the results indicate the 2006 nomination is "Moore's for the taking."

[QC]

24. I suspect Moore could beat Riley,

since quite a few of the goopers still haven't forgiven him for trying to raise taxes. And then there's Moore's appeal to the fanatics, which we all know about.

But there are some other things to consider. One is that Riley is quite popular with the state's business elite. They can give unlimited amounts of money under Alabama law, and they do pour cash into campaigns. Also, the GOP establishment doesn't like Moore very much, since his grandstanding put them in the very awkward position of either breaking the law with him or having the church crowd view them as anti-Christian. So business and the party leadership could make things difficult for Moore, which could, of course, precipitate a very nasty little war between the party's Money and God factions.

Assuming Moore does get the nomination, it's still not a slam dunk for him. He's a very polarizing figure, even in Alabama and even among conservative Christians, many of whom think he's using religion for his political career. Lucy Baxley would likely end up with the support of moderate Republicans, and they do exist in Alabama. She might also wind up with the support of business, which would fear the negative publicity a Moore administration would bring. We could very easily see Baxley elected by a coalition of Democrats, businesspeople, and country club Republicans.

Could Moore win? Sure. But it's not guaranteed. This will be a very interesting race.

[nosmokes]

27. oh hell no, it just my opinion, but i do have

a fairly decent grasp of alabama politics even if i haven't lived there for years. i have dearly loved friends and family in b'ham, monkeytown and mobile. and i'm willing to bet that moore can still travel pretty far on the whole ten commandments thing in most of the state except b'ham and huntsville area.

[QC]

28. See post #24. He might win, but I don't think it's guaranteed,

by any means. This will be a fascinating campaign, whatever happens.

[0rganism]

13. Only if he runs as a republican

in which case it's a very good chance.

[prolesunited]

15. Does the GOP want him?

Are they backing him?

[peacebaby3]

18. As far as I know he has always run as a Repuke even when he was a judge in

Etowah County.

[QC]

26. He was a Democrat way back when,

not that it matters now.

[peacebaby3]

16. I was working with the state democratic party when he ran for Chief

Justice of the AL Supreme Court. It was one of the most devastating elections for the Dem party ever. It was an off election and Moore was at the head of the repuke ticket. So many people came in and voted a down ticket under Moore and the Dem party lost every race if I remember correctly (Sue Bell Cobb may have won the AL Court of Crim Appeals as an incumbent that election). It was horrible. There were actually some people that were elected then to the bench that really had no experience, i.e. Shaw and Wise.

I had hopes that Moore had gone too far with his 5,280 lb. 10 Commandments hunk of concrete fiasco, BUT his lawyer, Tom Parker, was just elected this past Nov. '04 to the AL Supreme Court and I believe is running for Chief Justice next time.

I have already seen a sign for Moore and he just officially announced and I am officially worried. Since we have an open primary, I may be casting a vote for Riley. We'll see when it gets closer. Riley has lost a lot of the conservative vote because he tried to raise taxes (which was defeated by the voters).

I really don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if he won.

[prolesunited]

19. That would be a scary indictment

of our voting public. Fascist theocracy here we come. Our founding fathers must be rolling in their graves.

[Elwood P Dowd]

25. Roy Moore WILL NOT be Alabama's next governor!

The bible-thumping repukes have a loud voice, but they don't have enough voters. Democrats, moderate repukes,and independents would defeat him. I'm telling you, almost every repuke I know says they will not vote for this man. I've asked dozens of them about this and except for a few thumpers, Moore has no support.

[KBlagburn]

22. The Alabama GOP are running scared and have been trying.....

to figure out how Riley can run as an independent when Moore beats him in the primary. I am supporting Siegelman, again. I think he is the only one who can beat Riley or Moore. He can come back and say "I told you so".

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

23. I don't believe he'' get past the fringe elements that seem to love him.