Let's not make the Bird Flu our equivalent of right wing Greenhouse denial

[Armstead]

It seems there are a lot of posts about how the Bird Flu is just another GOP conspiracy to scare us into submitting to fascism.

If that goes too far, we'll be in danger of succumbibng to the same Anti-Science denial that the right wing uses to deny the existance of Global Warming.

In both cases, what should be a matter of objective, non-political science and preparation and policy threatens to degenerate into idiotic political positions in which reality gets buried under a mound of horseshit and spin.

I certainly share any concerns that the adminiustration could use such a public health emergency to overreach and try to acquire more power inappropriately. That should be contested vigorously.

I also recognize how the media loves to jump on the Bandwagon of Fear so tghey can keep us hooked on their drug of sensationalism.

However, just because we may not like the response does not mean we should deny the possible real threat, or put it into a political Tin Hatbox.

[ixion]

1. sure, but let's not throw posse comitatus out the window, either

Really, there will always be 'threats', that's just part of being alive.

I refuse to live on my knees in the face of ANY THREAT, thank you very much.

[Armstead]

3. I don;lt disagree with you

But sometimes on DU (and in general) thereis a tendency to make an assumption and jump on it without any regard for objective evidence.

Fact: The administration might well use a pandemic (or the threat of one) in the wrong way.

Fact 2:The Bird Flu threat might be overblown.

Fact 3: More important, it is a real and potentially devestating threat. We should support efforts to reasearch it and to prepare for the possibility of it.

[nashville_brook]

20. no one is asking for military EXCEPT george

we'd rather have drugs.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5018686&mesg_id=5018686

no one is asking you to get on your knees EXCEPT for george. your buds here on DU would rather you get on your computer and do some research.

[mattclearing]

2. We can acknowledge a potential threat without allowing the

White House to blow it out of proportion in an attempt to distract us from what's going on.

I know some people want to just ignore it, but there may be something to it.

Ultimately though, I imagine it will likely turn out like SARS...not as big a deal as initially thought, but something the media can yell and scream about for awhile.

[Armstead]

7. As long as minds remain open

The right wing and corporate CONsrvatives have closed their minds regarding Global Warming, instead seeing and portraying it as merely a political creation and power play by the environmental movement and liberals to gain power and control.

As a result, what should be a scientific issue of concern to everyone has been twisted and distorted into a political talking point.

I'm merely saying we shouldn't do the same thing from the otehr side withg the Bird Flu. Let's try to focus on the facts.

[smoogatz]

14. This flu strain is, apparently, a very close relative of the 1918 Spanish

flu that killed 675,000 Americans, give or take. It's an extremely nasty bug, and we'd be fools not to take it seriously.

[mattclearing]

15. Granted, but we are light years ahead of that scientifically.

Hopefully no flu is going to put that kind of a dent in the population at this point.

[progressivebydesign]

21. Yes. but how many people in 1918 died from things like childbirth?

I'm putting it into perspective. It's a nasty bug, though I've read it's no nastier than the Hong Kong Flu which hit in the 60's. My point is that something that killed 675k americans in 1918, would not actually kill that many if it hit exactly the same way, today. The medical world and the world is much different now. That is why less and less people (in large numbers) die each time we are hit with a flu disaster. People died of dental infections regularly in 1918, they died of ear infections, and mumps.

Not to dismiss the danger IF the flu pandemic comes to pass, but putting it into perspective is helpful.

[smoogatz]

22. Could be.

Far more American's live in big population centers now, though, too--and it's a lot easier for a virus to get around now than it was in 1918. Could be better, could be a hell of a lot worse. If the epidemiologists are worried, I'm worried.

[demigoddess]

27. yes, I agree, we have all become more resistant to ANY flu since

1918 and we are way ahead in our medical care and basic health. The republicans just bring flu scares forward to make us think they 'care' about the people of the US. Pay no attention.

[Silverhair]

46. It IS nastier.

It has demonstrated a lethality rate of over 50%. That is nasty. It just isn't highly human to human contagious. That is what is protecting us. When it mutates to a contagious form, unless it also drops in lethality, humanity is in big trouble.

[smoogatz]

4. Correctamundo.

I got tangled up in some major tin hattery yesterday--guy pretty much said Bush was cooking up bird flu in the White House kitchen, with his Acme Mad Scientist Kit. In a way, I can understand that kind of thinking--Bush's reaction to the potential threat has been as criminally clueless as everything else he's done. The answer is to vaccinate, not quarantine.

[jsamuel]

5. WTF are we going to do about it? Medical Professionals should do somethin

g

We can do shit. Any talk about a global pandemic is fear fear fear.

perspective

PERSPECTIVE

35,000 people die every year in the US from the NORMAL flu and 60 people died in Asia last year from the bird flu.



That said, sure lets develop a vaccine and distribute it.

[mike_c]

19. no perspective without understanding...

...which your response demonstrates a distressing lack of. The OP is correct-- there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding flying around here. Your response is one example.

First, the WHO and international public health organizations have been pissing themselves for two years trying to get western governments to take the threat of an H5N1 pandemic seriously. The Bush administration is only just beginning to get the clue.

Second, vaccine production CANNOT begin until H5N1 recombines with a more easily transmissible Type A flu variety and the pandemic begins. No vaccine produced before then would be likely to work on the recombined virus. That's why new flu vaccines have to be produced every year, and last year's vaccine doesn't work for this year's flu.

Third, the method used to produce flu vaccine requires several months to begin full production, and it cannot easily respond to midstream changes in production requirements. The current production method involves growing the virus inside fertilized chicken eggs. But H5N1 has VERY HIGH avian lethality. You see the problem, I hope-- even though the virus can be genetically modified to allow it to grow in chicken eggs without killing the embryo quickly, acquiring extra eggs for increasing production is likely to be especially difficult-- the producers of those eggs will be among the earliest victims.

Fourth, at maximum production, current world wide vaccine production capacity can produce only enough vaccine to immunize 5 percent of the world's population, under the best case scenario. Worst case is between 1-2 percent. And the real kicker is that NONE of that vaccine can currently be produced in the U.S. Nada. We are hoping to buy vaccine from European suppliers producing insufficient vaccine to protect their own populations, and beginning several months into a pendemic that could last as long as two years.

[jsamuel]

32. yeah, I know all that

so what?

So we know! We know the Bush Admin is blocking it! We KNOW IT! But we can't do anything. The Bush Admin can do something. We can yell at the Bush Admin. We can freak out too. But we can't develop a vaccine. There is absolutely no reason to freak out about this, just do what we can.

Fear Fear Fear

[mike_c]

37. then why toss off a statement like "let's just make a vaccine...

...and distribute it" if you already know that's impossible? :shrug:

[jsamuel]

41. we should make a vaccine

we should also make a vaccine for HIV

Does that mean that I think we are currently capable of making one? No.

Sure, plus if multiple strains break out, then we would have major trouble making vaccines. However, I think we need to "make vaccines" (get ready to or make sure the infrastructure is there to be able to do it when we are able).

[mike_c]

44. agreed-- big pharma has steadfastly resisted...

...this in the U.S. without government guarantees that vaccine production will not lose them money. The current process is economically risky for a host of reasons, not the least of which is the long time to delivery for a vaccine against an agent that is constantly changing, so excess production is just wasted. Cell culture methods will cut that down a bit by making production more quickly responsive to need, but cell culture flu vaccine production will not be online for another couple of years, at least.

This is the dirty little secret of flu vaccine production that no one wants to talk about. DO NOT expect a vaccine against pandemic avian flu to be available in anything greater than token supplies unless the pandemic strain is seriously weakened by its recombination.

[nashville_brook]

24. see, that's what ignorance does -- there's plenty you can do

you can be aware. you can research. you can boost your immunity now. you can ask your physician for anti-virals. you can make sure you are well-stocked on medicines you might need in case you get it -- stuff like cortisoids and anti-biotics. you can learn about herbal remedies like Elderberry. you can learn about how Aspirin works and know NOT to take it in the first days of fever (it kills your natural immune response).

and we can KICKASS on george for being such a dumbass for trying to flu with the military. this is NOT acceptable. just because that's HIS response, doesn't mean it has to be OURS.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5018686&mesg_id=5018686

read this -- all of it -- there's lots of good info!

[jsamuel]

35. oh come on... herbal remidies is what we can do?

You are spending way too much time on this, unless you are a doctor. Sure we can yell at Bush about this as well.

The rest of that stuff is like duct tape, common sense items and stocking up on food and water. (DUH!)

No need to let fear drive us like this.

[nashville_brook]

55. j -- i think you misunderstand

i'm NOT saying anyone should STOCK UP ON WATER and prepare a bunker for the FLU. that's taking the saying about "get plenty of fluids" way too literally. :)

i'm saying there's not a reasonable response to this. we aren't taking reasonable action. talking about the military, and stocking up on non-perishables is not reasonable.

demanding that our medical and governmental take a measured, scientific approach is what we are here for.

[afdip]

6. the threat of avian flu is not one iota greater the day after the

repukes started trumpeting the warning than it was in the months prior to the repuke call to action. it is a combination of sleight of hand and timing. the sheeple were sorely in need of a distraction to ease their troubled thoughts of iraq, katrina, energy costs, deficits, ad nauseam . . . the repuke prescription: armageddon in the form of a plague. i suggest the repukes rely on intelligent design to help them escape their fate.

[leftofthedial]

8. you're right

I know that humans can't pass this flu to other humans, but if it mutates, it could be really awful and kill everyone you love. Just to be safe, let's declare martial law and further restrict travel. Maybe we should seal off the West Coast just to be safe. Also, just to be safe, knowing that this flu comes from Asia, we should preemptively invade China. It's only reasonable for a threat that doesn't really exist yet, but might someday. It would be the safe thing to do to keep everyone you love from dying.

[Armstead]

23. Assuming that is sarcasm, what if AIDS were still an early distant threat?

What about in the early days of AIDS in the US, if more people took the warnings about it more seriously? Suppose the gay population had known enough and believed enough to curb their sexual appetites more. A lot of lives could have been saved.

Suppose AIDS were in the same stage today that it was in the early 1980's. A few puzzling cases of a mysterious illness that was appearing among gay men in San Francisco.

But in the climate of today, the legitimate public health warnings and preparations would have probably been dismissed today as homophobia and right-wing efforts to impose their morality through a "fake" threat.

[leftofthedial]

28. then we should bomb Africa

and declare martial law

and level San Francisco where all the gays live

Seriously, AIDS is a false analogy. Early on, AIDS was actually killing people and was known almost immediately to be both transmittable human-to-human, deadly, and incurable.

this is a "disease" that doesn't even exist yet epidemiologically. We should attack it at its source, the virus itself and the birds that carry it, and be aware of the possible threat(s), but scaring the hell out of the population is absurd and is purely political and/or sensationalist. There is nothing any of us can do about it. The overwhelming odds are that nothing will ever come of it.

[Armstead]

33. You seem to forget about the early days of AIDS

No one had a clue about it when it first started to become evident. At first there wan't even the connection seen between AIDS and sex. It was just some "odd" sickness that no one could explain.

It was only through objective research and backtracking detective work that a picture of the nature of it began to emerge.

Unfortunately, once it started becoming clear, it also became politicized.

I'm simply saying that we should avoid knee jerk analysis of the actual or potential threat, and allow the process to find out more, without throwning a blanket of political paranoia over it.

[leftofthedial]

45. there was considerable wrangling over what the disease was

but they knew there was a disease transmitted human-to-human that killed

we don't even have that for avian flu.

let the epidemiologists do their jobs. It is a real disease. It is a potential threat.

Recognizing politically motivated hype and media sensationalism for what they are is not the same as denial.

[Armstead]

48. We're not really disagreeing

I agree with you on much of what you said.

I certainly would not have endorsed sealing the borders of San Francisco, or having camps for gays and I don't endorse draconian measures regarding the Bird Flu.

To repeat my original point, I simply believe we should not contribute to the cheapening of the issue by jumping to our own conclusions and spouting off unscientific crap based on political beliefs.....I hate when that happens. :)

[leftofthedial]

50. I hope the virus does not mutate

I hope nothing comes of it

:thumbsup:

[KoKo]

9. Why the caution about this?

We've seen this administration hype before. We know that our Pharmaceutical Companies have Global interests. I think erring on the side of caution over panic is wise.

When the Cables are showing day after day coverage with Pandemic Hype one does need to have a sense of balance. Why do they need to do this? Is it a Left Wing Conspiracy forcing CNN/MSNBC/CNBC/FAUX and Networks to push this? :shrug:

I guess I don't understand your post that Democrats would be in Bird Flu Pandemic denial. I think many folks are wondering about the "hooplah" given the track record of the News Media and that much of our scientific community has already been weeded so that only the Bush/Blair/Global/Corporatists view are aired.

[Armstead]

17. I just want to see the issue oriented to science, not politics

I hate hype too, but just because there is overreaction by the media or the right-wing Political Industrial Complex doesn't mean the underlying potential threat doesn't exist.

I simply don't want to see it degenerate into another one of those issues where political spin replaces facts, so that it's difficult to sift out the credible information.

[LSK]

10. lets all be thankful that Stewart Simonson is there to save us

Stewart Simonson was sworn in as the Assistant Secretary for Public Health Emergency Preparedness at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on April 28, 2004.

Simonson serves as the Secretary's principal advisor on matters related to bioterrorism and other public health emergencies. He also coordinates interagency activities between HHS, other federal departments, agencies, offices and state and local officials responsible for emergency preparedness and the protection of the civilian population from acts of bioterrorism and other public health emergencies.

Most recently, Simonson served as Special Counsel to the Secretary and acted as the Secretary's liaison to the Homeland Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security. He also supervised policy development for Project BioShield and other countermeasure research and development programs.

From 2001-2003, he was the HHS Deputy General Counsel and provided legal advice and counsel to the Secretary on public health preparedness matters. Prior to joining HHS, Simonson served as corporate secretary and counsel for the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK).

From 1995-1999, Simonson was Legal Counsel to Wisconsin Governor Tommy G. Thompson. In the Governor's Office, Simonson also directed policy development for crime and corrections and coordinated the state's public safety agencies.

http://www.hhs.gov/about/bios/asphep.html

Im so glad the well qualified cronies are on top of things! :sarcasm:

[Armstead]

40. Please note I am not defending Bush's handling of this

But not matter how bad or potentially dangeroius his response mught get, that does not automatically negate the real possiblity of a legetimate public health threat.

Argue about how the administration handles it all you want. My only point is that we should seperate that from whatever the scientific and public health issue is.

[Skidmore]

11. It's hard to decide what to believe given the downright lies and

false data this administration engages in, not to mention the terror club it wields. AND we've seen that they will withhold resources to people in dire straits and lie about it later. In addition, they will do anything to protect their corporate owners--like make certain the pharmaceutical companies are ensured of a bonanza during a public health crisis without fear of litigation.

[Armstead]

13. It's also the UN and Democrats like Obama

One reason I hope we can look at it non-politically is for the very reason you cited. But it cuts both ways. The right wingers resist any rational public debates over global warming for the same reason of mistrust.

If this were only Bush raising the arning flag it'd be one thing. But democrats like Barak Obama and the officials at the UN are also raising warnings.

[napi21]

12. WE souldn't deny a threat, but pay close attention to the

"experts" when you decide just how afraid you will be.

I've liestened to about a dozen different ones, from viroligists, shemists, and researchers ocer the last few weeks.

They all seem to agree on a few things:

There is no way to predict if there will be a pandemic this month, this year, this decade, or even this century!

There are 2 antivirus medications now, that help if you get the bird flu, but only if it's taken as soon as the sympthoms begin, but there is NO vaccine!

Noone can make a vaccine until the current virus mutates into a person to person strain. You can't make a vaccine to prevent a virus that doesn't yet exist.


I think we should take the threat of a pandemic seriously, and support the scientists in EVERY Country to keep a close watch on it's progress, but it's insane for anyone to go into panic mode. Before you tell me that nobody is panicing, listen to how many are screaming at the drug houses for not making the antivirus meds here; how many times have you hear millions or tens of millions of people coud die; and the people who call cspan and ask what can I do NOW?

[Armstead]

30. Some of that is probably post-Katrina overcompensation

The big issue in the wake of Katrina was how ill-prepared we were for such a disaster.

I'm guessing that in the wake of that (and 9-11) and other disasters that have befallen the earth in recent years, a lot of people are on edge and want to be prepared for whatever.

[nashville_brook]

16. bird flu deniers are ill-informed

the information about bird flu is coming from the INTERNATIONAL community. the US has been MUM on it except to say, "we'll bring in the military IF you give up Posse Commitatus."

the assumption that this is another in a long line of GOP dirty tricks is understandable -- but it's ill-informed. do the internet searches and read for yourself.

if all the bird flu info was coming from the Bushies, i'd prolly take the denier position. but they aren't. they'd rather NOT talk about it.

[jsamuel]

38. geez... just because we don't see a reason to spend 8 hours a day talking

about it doesn't mean we deny it exists...

I think that is the problem here...

People think there are two kinds of people:
1. Freak-outers
2. Deniers

I am in between. Don't freak out and do what we can.

[nashville_brook]

49. then i'm a tweener as well. i'm not freaking out. if we are so much more

scientifically evolved than we were in the 1918 Spanish Flu era, then we should be looking at this rationally. like OP sez.

for me, "rationally," doesn't include denying the threat just because Bush answered a question about H5N1 at a press conference for the very first time.

i guess my problem is folks aren't seeing the media message clearly. they are making false assumptions about the "propaganda" aspect. i don't have TV. i have no idea how this is playing on CNN. but here on DU, ironically, folks are reacting as if the flu is a BFEE ruse. a hoaxed subway threat. elevated terror level.

that is off-base because:
1. the BFEE isn't spreading this info or raising the terror level -- healthcare and science professionals in the international community are; also

2. being reasonably prepared with easy educational, scientific, and healthcare responses are missing from the BFEE strategy; and

3. if you are a BFEE kinda girl (like myself), then you are aware that they are good at using BREAKDOWN SCENARIOs (911, katrina) to leverage power; THEN

4. a real FLU OUTBREAK that we are unprepared for, suits their interests more effectively.

there's evidence for prescendence, motive and opportunity.

[Art_from_Ark]

73. Japan is usually one of the first to panic about the disease du jour,

whether it's SARS, E. coli, Ebola, or the Indonesian version of Montezuma's revenge, and there have even been cases of bird flu occurring in a few henhouses here. But it hasn't transferred to humans (just like SARS did not transfer from a Taiwanese visitor to the general Japanese population), and no one I know is talking about it here.

[progressivebydesign]

18. Common sense is all that is needed here.

It's easy to get freaked out with the term "pandemic". I've been reading up on it this week. The medical and public health experts seem pretty unhappy that Bush has been throwing around the military option in regards to containing the flu, IF it arrives here en force. The official health people say that if the flu were to arrive and there was a need to keep it from spreading, it would be more like asking people in some areas to keep their kids home, or avoid a football game, or the shopping mall. there would NOT be a case of cordoning off cities, or having people kept in facilities at gunpoint. It's not going to be Escape From New York. Bush fucked up talking about using the military, he's an idiot.

My Mom got Hong Kong flu during that pandemic, and she was very sick for a few weeks, but NO ONE near her got sick. Not one of us. If you look at the history of flu pandemics, you'll see that the deaths have steadily decreased each occurance, due to better follow up care and planning.

I'm not freaking out. I'm not denying that it COULD happen, but it's not like the Plague is marching toward our shores. You'll have to forgive some people who are dismissing this, after the freak out over the missing flu vaccines under Bush's watch. It is also UNDENIABLE that Bush's friends in the pharm. industry will make ton of money making those vaccines for the possibility of this happening. As always.. the truth lies somewhere in between.

[jobycom]

25. Maybe.

The truth usually lies between the two extremes, based on the law of averages. But that isn't always the case. It's a good idea to prepare for the worst case scenario, even though you don't expect it to happen.

I agree Bush is trying to make this the next 9-11, to steal more power and look like he's taking charge of a possible disaster BEFORE it happens. That's PR, to counter Bush's failures with Katrina, when a worst case scenario did hit and the president was unprepared.

But he could still be right. There have been catastrophic diseases that strike unprepared populations. The fourteenth century plagues in Europe, and the fifteenth century plagues in the Americas are two examples.

In both of those cases, a disease spread from one region where people had built an immunity to the illness to regions where there were none. There have also been more limited catastrophic outbreaks, as well, obviously.

So it's more than likely that even a major outbreak will be fairly limited, but the extremes are possible. Being prepared for them isn't a bad idea. Since Bush is turning control of the situation over to Homeland Security, even a bad case of the hiccups will be beyond their ability to plan for.

[Armstead]

26. Good perspective

I'm not suggesting we eitehr deny it or panic.

I just don't want to see the subject degenerate into yet another case of one "side" of the poilitical spectrum denying it as a conspiracy and the other hyping it.

BTW, regarding your story...Remember the polio epidemic? That was one that had everyone scared to go out in public in the early 50's.

My Dad caught a bad case of it. But they didn't realize what it was at first, and for several days my brother mothger and I were exposed to it daily in the house. When the doctor realized what it was, my Dad was immediately rushed into an isolation ward.

Luckily none of us caught it, but I guess it was a close call. So the reactions are sometimes justified and sometimes overblown I guess.

[nashville_brook]

29. agreed, but there's no vaccine -- there's anti-virals that can be taken

in the first 40 hours of infection. pharma doesn't make money on flu vaccines -- they are not profitable.

altho it's easy to imagine, this isn't about pharma making money on a drug monopoly. there's generics that can also be taken. we don't have to treat the virus -- we could also treat the secondary infections and respiratory crisis.

what's so dang frustrating about this is that the bushies aren't doing anything they should be. cordoning off cities is a strawman.

i'm not freaking out either -- it's the flu-deniers who are freaking out by swinging wildly and irrationally to what they THINK is the opposite of what bush is saying. thing is -- they aren't arguing the opposite; they are essentially arguing his point by not taking a measured, rational approach.

[nashville_brook]

36. actually, i need to re-phrase... there's no H5N1 vaccine, but seasonal

vaccines *can* be used prophylactically.

[Silverhair]

60. Only against the versions of flu that they are made from.

Last year I got the flu shot, and then the strain of flu that came around was the California strain. The flu shot was for a different strain. I still got the California strain.

Getting the flu shot IS a good idea. But don't expect it to do anything about the Avain flu if that starts running among us.

[KoKo]

31. exactly...."the truth lies somewhere inbetween."

I think many of us feel exactly what you say. :-)'s

[triguy46]

34. Good points, I'm on board n/t

[robcon]

39. I think it is all hype

West Nile virus, SARS, Swine Flu (Ford administration), mobile phone use, overhead power lines, Mad Cow disease, obesity, etc.

All of them were real... all of them were overhyped. The same is true of the possiblity of transmission of bird flu. There is a need by the media to raise unnecessary/unwarranted fears, and the media, governments and rumor-susceptible public have succeeded in raising those fears in the past, and will continue to do so.

[nashville_brook]

42. you know -- there's something else here too -- for the conspiratorial set

and i would imagine that folks who think this is a conspiracy on the part of the BFEE to create fear...what about the conspiracy about all the DEAD MICROBIOLOGISTS!

i had forgotten about this --
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=125&topic_id=56764&mesg_id=56764

i was just reading about the facility in Memphis vector lab and remembered this:

common threads:
DNA sequencing
"harsh environment" microbiology -- astro, arctic
viruses including influenze, ebola, AIDS
patent and consultant work
immune response
Iraqi nuclear physicists
and
free energy (the odd guy out)

the list:

November 6, 2001: Jeffrey Paris Wall, 41, was a biomedical expert who held a medical degree, and he also specialized in patent and intellectual property. It had been alleged that Jeffrey Wall had a connection to Biofem.

November 16, 2001: Dr. Don Wiley, 57, disappears during a business trip to Memphis, Tennessee. He had just bought tickets to take his son to Graceland the following day. Police found his rental car on a bridge outside Memphis. His body was later found in the Mississippi River. Wiley was one of the world's leading researchers of deadly viruses, including HIV and the Ebola virus. He was an expert on the immune system's response to viral attacks.

November 21, 2001: World-class microbiologist and high-profile Russian defector Dr. Vladimir Pasechnik, 64, succeeded in producing an aerosolized plague microbe that could survive outside the laboratory. He was connected to Britain's spy agency and recently had started his own company. "In the last few weeks of his life he had put his research on anthrax at the disposal of the Government, in the light of the threat from bioterrorism.

November 24, 2001: Three more dead microbiologists: A Swissair flight from Berlin to Zurich crashes during its landing approach; 22 are killed and nine survive. Among those killed are Dr. Yaakov Matzner, 54, dean of the Hebrew University school of medicine; Amiramp Eldor, 59, head of the haematology department at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv and a world-recognized expert in blood clotting; and Avishai Berkman, 50, director of the Tel Aviv public health department and businessman

December 10, 2001: Dead microbiologist: "Dr. Robert Schwartz, 57. Schwartz worked at Virginia's Center for Innovative Technology on DNA sequencing and pathogenic microorganisms.

December 14, 2001: Dead microbiologist: Nguyen Van Set, 44, dies in an airlock filled with nitrogen in his lab in Geelong, Australia. The lab had just been written up in the journal Nature for its work in genetic manipulation and DNA sequencing. Scientists there had created a virulent form of mousepox. "They realized that if similar genetic manipulation was carried out on smallpox, an unstoppable killer could be unleashed,"

January 2002: Two dead microbiologists: Ivan Glebov and Alexi Brushlinski. Glebov died as the result of a bandit attack and Brushlinski was killed in Moscow. Both were well known around the world and members of the Russian Academy of Science.

February 9, 2002: Dead microbiologist: Victor Korshunov, 56. He was the head of the microbiology sub-faculty at the Russian State Medical University and an expert in intestinal bacteria.

February 11, 2002: Dead microbiologist: Dr. Ian Langford, 40. He was one of Europe's leading experts on environmental risk.

February 28, 2002: Two dead microbiologists in San Francisco: While taking delivery of a pizza, Tanya Holzmayer, 46, is shot and killed by a colleague, Guyang Huang, 38, who then apparently shot himself. Holzmayer moved to the US from Russia in 1989. Her research focused on the part of the human molecular structure that could be affected best by medicine. Holzmayer was focusing on helping create new drugs that interfere with replication of the virus that causes AIDS. One year earlier, Holzmayer obeyed senior management orders to fire Huang.

March 24, 2002: Dead microbiologist: David Wynn-Williams, 55, was an astrobiologist with the Antarctic Astrobiology Project and the NASA Ames Research Center. He was studying the capability of microbes to adapt to environmental extremes, including the bombardment of ultraviolet rays and global warming.

March 25, 2002: Dead microbiologist: Steven Mostow, 63, was known as "Dr. Flu" for his expertise in treating influenza, and expertise on bioterrorism. Mostow was one of the country's leading infectious disease experts.

November 12 2002: Dr. Benito Que, 52, was "an expert in infectious diseases and cellular biology at the Miami Medical School.

June 24, 2003: Dr. Leland Rickman, a UC San Diego expert on infectious diseases and, since Sept. 11, 2001 a consultant on bioterrorism. He was 47. Rickman died while on a teaching assignment in Lesotho, a small country bordered on all sides by South Africa. He had complained of a headache, but the cause of death was not immediately known. The physician had been working in Lesotho with Dr. Chris Mathews, director of the UC San Diego Medical Center's Owen Clinic, teaching African medical personnel about the prevention and treatment of AIDS. Rickman, the incoming president of the Infectious Disease Assn. of California, was a multidisciplinary professor and practitioner with expertise in infectious diseases, internal medicine, epidemiology, microbiology and antibiotic utilization

July 18, 2003: David Kelly, a British biological weapons expert. Kelly was the Ministry of Defence's chief scientific officer and senior adviser to the proliferation and arms control secretariat, and to the Foreign Office's non-proliferation department. The senior adviser on biological weapons to the UN biological weapons inspections teams (Unscom) from 1994 to 1999, he was also, in the opinion of his peers, pre-eminent in his field, not only in this country, but in the world.

November 20, 2003: Scientist Robert Leslie Burghoff, 45 was studying the virus plaguing cruise ships

April 2004: Mohammed Munim al-Izmerly, a distinguished Iraqi chemistry professor dies in American custody from a sudden hit to the back of his head caused by blunt trauma. It was uncertain exactly how he died, but it was discovered that US doctors had made a 20cm incision in his skull.

May 5, 2004: A Russian scientist at a former Soviet biological weapons laboratory in Siberia died after an accident with a needle laced with ebola. Scientists and officials said the accident had raised concerns about safety and secrecy at the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, known as Vector, which in Soviet times specialized in turning deadly viruses into biological weapons. Vector has been a leading recipient of aid in an American programme.

May 14, 2004: Dr. Eugene F. Mallove, a Norwich Free Academy graduate, 56. Mallove was well respected for his knowledge of cold fusion. He had just published an “open letter” outlining the results of and reasons for his last 15 years in the field of “new energy research.” Dr. Mallove was convinced it was only a matter of months before the world would actually see a free energy device.

June 22, 2004: Astronomer and physicist, Austrian born Thomas Gold famous over the years for a variety of bold theories that flout conventional wisdom died of heart failure. Gold’s theory of the deep hot biosphere holds important ramifications for the possibility of life on other planets, including seemingly inhospitable planets within our own solar system. He was Professor Emeritus of Astronomy at Cornell University and was the founder (and for 20 years director) of Cornell Center for Radiophysics and Space Research. He was also involved in air accident investigation.

July 3, 2004: Dr Paul Norman, 52, of Salisbury, Wiltshire, the chief scientist for chemical and biological defence at the Ministry of Defence’s laboratory at Porton Down, Wiltshire.

July 21, 2004: Dr Bassem al-Mudares' mutilated body was found in the city of Samarra, Iraq. He was a phD chemist and had been tortured before being killed.

July 29, 2004: 67-year-old John Mullen, a nuclear research scientist with McDonnell Douglas. At the time of his death he was doing contract work for Boeing.

August 12, 2004: Professor John Clark, head of the science lab which created Dolly the sheep, Prof Clark led the Roslin Institute in Midlothian, one of the world’s leading animal biotechnology research centres. He played a crucial role in creating the transgenic sheep that earned the institute worldwide fame. Prof Clark also founded three spin-out firms from Roslin - PPL Therapeutics, Rosgen and Roslin BioMed.

September 5, 2004: Mohammed Toki Hussein al-Talakani Iraqi was a practising nuclear physicist since 1984.

December 21, 2004: Taleb Ibrahim al-Daher Iraqi nuclear scientist

January 7, 2005: Korean Jeong H. Im, retired research assistant professor at the University of Missouri - Columbia and primarily a protein chemist.

[Silverhair]

43. This has already been debunked.

People die. Nobody gets to live forever - not even microbiologists. There are LOTS of microbiologists. So it is entirely normal for some to die each year.

You could easily produce such a list with any but the more obscure fields of study. And microbiology is NOT an obscure field.

Your tinfoil hat is getting in the way of logical thought.

[nashville_brook]

51. "twice is coincidence. three times is enemy action."

-- intelligence community proverb

[nashville_brook]

52. according to insurance tables for mortality rate in 30-month period:

14,000,000,000:1

that's 14 BILLION TO 1

It does not matter what the individual circumstances of each death are. Probably a couple of these deaths are innocuous. The insurance industry uses scientific tables to accurately predict death rates. Based on the 1997 CSO Mortality Tables, the odds that all of these men could collectively die during a 30 month period is a staggering 14,000,000,000:1

http://gatorpress.com/badsam/page7.html

[nashville_brook]

53. that's 14 BILLION TO 1

[Silverhair]

56. Gross misuse of statistics. You get a F- for your math.

I was a math major. Although retired now, I make my money playing poker, and I see a lot of guys that try to figure the odds the way you did and I make money from them because they play their cards incorrectly.

The odds of Jim (specifically) dying are, say, 50 to 1 in the year 2005. But the odds of SOMEBODY dying in the year 2005 are 100%. Somebody is going to croak.

Your method waits until somebody has already died, (Remember - SOMEBODY WILL.) and then runs to that person's corpse and says that the odds against that were 50 to 1. Then you run to the next corpse (AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ONE)and pronounce that the odds of those two deaths combined were 2,500 to 1, and so on. In actuality the odds of two deaths to SOMEBODY was 100%.

There are enough microbiologist that the odds of a bunch of them dying in any particular time frame are 100%. Some of them will.

Probability doesn't work the way you used it. Would you like to play poker with me sometime? I would like that.

[nashville_brook]

61. your assumptions are off -- i was a philosophy major

it's not about how many people in die in general. it's how many die within a specific field AND within a specific duration of time.

[nashville_brook]

62. and wouldn't presume to "grade" your critical skills -- this is a dialogue

not a lecture -- :)

[Silverhair]

66. In math, the answer is right or wrong. You can't write a bunch of

good sounding BS the way you can in some majors. Your math is off. Math has NO forgiveness. You appealed to math to prove your point, so it is legitimate for me to grade your math.

[Silverhair]

65. out of how many that are in the field?

You are leaving that part of the equation out.

Your list sounds like the old Clinton Death List. During his presidency, the RW's drew up a list of people who had ever been even remotely connected with Clinton since the beginning of his political career and who had died. It was a rather long list, and made Clinton look like he was a godfather getting rid of problems. Until one tought about it just a bit critically, and then it was laughable. The same kind of list can be drawn up for ANY politician, since a politician has to know and be connected with many people, and some of them will die.

That is all that you have done. There are MANY microbiologists. Some are going to die each year. It really is THAT SIMPLE.

Try this as an exercise. Calculate the odds, using the same methodology, of the deaths that are listed in the obits in your daily newspaper. You will get a big number. Is that big number a result of bad methodology, or will you have uncovered evidence of the biggest conspiracy of all?

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. Oh it is real, very real

and it will happen, whether this year or fifty from now that is another matter

And we are not ready either, and that is a policy decision

[nashville_brook]

54. i simply LOVE your avatar!

i know it's not the flying spaghetti monster. what is it?

[Silverhair]

57. Judging by the response posts, it seems to have already happened.

Those in denial and the conspiracy theorists are running rampant.

However, there are a few who are putting up some really good info, and some good sites for information.

[No Exit]

58. Sure, a pandemic might happen---but all I want is for people

to realize that the terrorists who might well be behind it are the neocons/Bushies/Cheney-ites.

People still ridicule the MIHOP theory. History will vindicate this theory, IMO.

So if the pandemic happens or is threatened, DON'T get back under Bush's wing, because if you do, you will be a sheep seeking refuge from wolves in a wolf den.

Furthermore, the best thing we can do to protect ourselves from an outbreak of such disease is to DITCH BUSH/CHENEY AND THE NEOCONS. Why? Because they've demonstrated extreme incompetence in dealing with such matters--look at the hurricane responses.

[Silverhair]

59. Who said anything about going back under W's wing?

I advocate self preparedness. If it hits in it's worse case mode, we are on our own.

[No Exit]

63. Right--do all you can to prepare, then stop worrying.

Worrying about the things one can do nothing about is self-destructive. Worrying about disaster plays into the hands of this fearmongering administration. Prepare, then stop worrying, is what I say.

[nashville_brook]

64. i don't get the "worry" part -- is television portraying worry?

cause, i don't have tv.

health is interesting thing to talk about. it's classic Mayberry fat-chewing. plus, many people don't have access to healthcare and seek information and engage conversation as a practical matter.

why should talking about health be verboten?

[No Exit]

67. Is television portraying worry? HELL YES!! They talk about nothing else!

[nashville_brook]

71. i'm not coming at it from that direction: looking at this issue doesn't

benefit bush, especially now when we can still prepare.

if, however -- the flu hits us and we can't get appropriate medicines b/c the only response planned is a military one, THEN bush will benefit in a big way.

[No Exit]

69. I'm all for talking about health. But I'm against playing into Bush

fearmongering!

If you don't have TV, I can see why you missed the hype (which is still going on). Lucky you!

[Silverhair]

68. Agreed. Make reasonable preparations, stay up on what is happening

in case you need to make changes, then relax. What will happen will happen.

I just get annoyed by those in denial and those who see EVERYTHING in terms of an uber-conspiracy.

[No Exit]

70. It's because of the deviousness of this government--rivalling that of

Nixon--that so many people are getting really skeptical.

[wildeyed]

72. I was concerned about avian flu before all the hype.

I read a book about the 1918 epidemic years ago and have been more conscious of the threat of flu, both the garden variety and the avian type, ever since. I started hearing about the threat of a new pandemic several years ago. I wrote to my reps about it for the first time probably about a year ago. So I don't believe this is all GOP hype.

Two things made me decide to take a possible pandemic seriously. First, other countries, countries that actually care about their citizens, are stocking up on Tamiflu (antiviral that can considerably decrease the intensity of the illness if taken soon after infection). AU has enough for something like 35% of their population. I know that UK and the Scandinavian countries also have ample supplies. By contrast US has enough stockpiled for approx. 1% of our population. I doubt those other countries started stocking up years ago in response to GOP hype.

Second, our federal government's pitiful response to Katrina. It is clear that nobody in charge of the federal government can find their own ass with a road map. They certainly won't be able (or even willing) to help us in the event of a pandemic.

I am not terrified. I am not staying up nights worrying. But I am conscious of the possibility and I taking reasonable precautions to protect my family.

[bluedawg12]

74. I agree with this position, science and politics

are two separate issues here.

The possibility of some, if not the bird flu, pandemic is real.

Whether we trust our government to handle it is another matter.

Too many articles in the world scientific literature for me to think this is hype.

Two links:

One I posted with information from W.H.O. and the New England Journal of Medicine, September 29, 2005, and a couple of other references about the avian flu.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2150860


The second link is from Science mag in 2003, it's very edited but the full article is free at the link below.


http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/302/5650/151...

Review

Are We Ready for Pandemic Influenza?
Richard J. Webby and Robert G. Webster*

"Antiviral Drugs

"A global influenza strategy would call for the stockpiling of influenza antiviral drugs

A sufficiently large supply of anti-influenza drugs

A vaccine matching the subtype of the emerging pandemic influenza strain

The preparation, testing (safety and clinical trials)

An improvement in the global influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity.


The conclusion of this analysis is inescapable: The world will be in deep trouble if the impending influenza pandemic strikes this week, this month, or even this year.

[nashville_brook]

75. a thought and an observation...

the thought:
after catching up on the coverage on cnn.com etc, i'm wonder if the attention to bird flu isn't meant to shore up the admin's "image" (such as it is) of "caring" about regular folks -- while, of course, giving them more ammo to push this posse commitatus thing.

i've followed this story for years, and without TV, haven't been privvy to the recent couple of days' uptick in coverage.

the observation:
a couple of years ago (last year?) when the flu vaccine was so rare, i was in florida visiting friends. i needed something from the drug story (goodies powders or something mundane) and hubby went to pick them up. he couldn't get near the store. first, the parking lot was completely full. secondly, there was a line coming out of the store and all the way around the plaza.

confused, hubby returned with no powders. we had no idea what the fuss was about.

later that night the local news covered it -- it was flu vaccine. my hubby sez -- "oh yeah -- i thought everyone in line seemed older."

so sad -- all those senior citizens having to stand in an hours' long line for a vaccine. we commented at the time that this was in a year when the flu wasn't supposed to be a killer. just a normal bug, but hardly any vaccine.