Don't kid yourself. Most people, would shoot to enforce a real quarantine

[Silverhair]

This is NOT a defense of the Bush quarantine plan. His won’t work because for a quarantine to be effective, the ENTIRE disease has to captured. Since the breeding ground for bird flu is in Asia, when it mutates it will be coming into America from different directions. With air travel, it will already be in several cities before anybody knows it is here.

This is a discussion of the concept of quarantine apart from Bush.
-----------

First, some basic information about the 1918 flu and quarantine:

The 1918 flu began in Russell, Kansas, and was taken out of the area by three men who reported to the Army. When the sickness hit Ft. Riley, military medical officials strongly recommended that the entire camp be quarantined while the flu ran it's course. But the war was going on and soldiers were needed, so they were not listened too.

If Russell, KS area had been quarantined early, the great 1918 plague that killed 675,000 Americans WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED. If Ft. Riley had been quarantined - IT WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED.

During the 1918 flu, there were some towns that self-quarantined. At gunpoint they turned away ALL outsiders. It worked. Those towns had no cases of the great flu.

Quarantine works! It is brutal, unjust in it's application, but done properly it is 100% effective.
--------

Now here is your scenario:

John Doe went on an adventure trip to Kenya, to Kitum Cave on the slopes of Mt. Elgon. It is a rare cave, an elephant cave, made by millennia of elephants scraping the rocks with their tusks to get minerals for their diet. While in the cave he scratched his hand on a dirty rock, contacting Marburg, a member of the filovirus family, through the skin. The next day he flew home, to Ennis, Texas. But inside him, after he got home, one of the viral particles mutated. It no longer required direct contact for infection. Now it could spread by air. Ten thousand strong it burst from the cell it had taken over and raced through his body. A few hours later, it’s strength was in the tens of millions, and soon, John was a very sick man. He died in a couple of days in the local hospital.

Then his family, and coworkers showed symptoms. The local doctors were on the ball and CDC was quickly called. UASMRIID (Unites States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases) was scrambled and showed up within hours. Tests quickly confirmed Marburg.

Other patients began to show up, still within John’s circle of contacts, or only one step removed. It was determined that the virus had become airborne. Marburg is known to have a 90% lethality rate.

A quarantine of the entire town was declared. (Ennis is rural with open land on all sides.) Soldiers from nearby military bases were called out, and the National Guard, and Air Force and Naval Reserves were activated. All were issued arms, ammunition, and told that NO ONE IS TO BE ALLOWED TO LEAVE.

Trucks with food and supplies are allowed in to drop their trailers at a yard where the residents can get food after the driver has left with the truck.

Soon reports begin to come out of Ennis about the disease. It is spreading unchecked, extremely contagious. Survivors are rare.

YOU are one of the soldiers. You have had email from friends in Ennis so you know that the official story is true. You have heard the broadcasts from the Ennis radio station. You also know that there have been no reports of any Marburg Ennis (A new virus in a family is named after the location where it is discovered.) outside of Ennis, so the virus has been contained. But if anybody gets out with it, if the virus escapes, humanity itself could be in danger.

Overblown scenario? Think of Russell, KS in 1918 when that pandemic could have been stopped by a harsh quarantine of Russell.

You see someone coming in your direction, trying to escape. If the virus escapes, many of your own family will die - probably your own children, and yourself.

What do you do?

[Amy6627]

1. You make a very compelling arguement for this. But given we are

talking about the B*sh Crime Family, I just don't trust anything they say. Try Googling: Rex 84

[beam me up scottie]

5. What the hell does that have to do with anything?

SH is explaining how quarantines are enforced and why containment works.

Oh, and I googled Rex 84, look what I found:

Existence of the Rex 84 plan was first revealed during the Iran-Contra Hearings in 1987, and subsequently reported by the Miami Herald on July 5, 1987. As news of the exercise spread, it was amplified by networks of people pursuing more elaborate conspiracy theories.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rex_84

Stop with the conspiracy crap already.

[Amy6627]

9. Please do not respond to anything I post. You are too hostile!

[beam me up scottie]

20. Tough. I hate what chicken littles do to morale.

Rumour-mongering is irresponsible and destructive.

[Silverhair]

12. That is why I said I was talking about it apart from Bush.

And a quarantine against H5N1 is doomed to failure, no matter who is doing it.

[Silverhair]

15. You must be new to my threads.

It is fairly well known that I have nothing but scorn for conspiracy theories.

I will file your CT in the same one I use for Chemtrails, HAARP weather modification, nukes setting off earthquakes and tsunanis, gov't hiding space aliens, no plane hit the pentagon, etc.

[cynatnite]

2. Anyone see 'Outbreak'?

Possible scenario.

[Amy6627]

3. Google Rex 84

[cynatnite]

4. Yes, I know all about it

:eyes:

[beam me up scottie]

6. Oh for christs sake.

How many threads have you posted in with your new mantra?

[beam me up scottie]

7. Excellent post.

A lot of people are not seeing the forest...

[HysteryDiagnosis]

8. I wonder how much if any help this little known procedure would

provide.... and this is ONLY vitamin C. I could name things that fire up your immunity like no others... and they are out there for sale 'bout everywhere.

1: J Manipulative Physiol Ther. 1999 Oct;22(8):530-3. Related Articles, Links


The effectiveness of vitamin C in preventing and relieving the symptoms of virus-induced respiratory infections.

Gorton HC, Jarvis K.

BACKGROUND: An ever increasing demand to evaluate the effect of dietary supplements on specific health conditions by use of a "significant scientific" standard has prompted the publication of this study. OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of megadose Vitamin C in preventing and relieving cold and flu symptoms in a test group compared with a control group. DESIGN: Prospective, controlled study of students in a technical training facility. SUBJECTS: A total of 463 students ranging in age from 18 to 32 years made up the control group. A total of 252 students ranging in age from 18 to 30 years made up the experimental or test group.

METHOD: Investigators tracked the number of reports of cold and flu symptoms among the 1991 test population of the facility compared with the reports of like symptoms among the 1990 control population. Those in the control population reporting symptoms were treated with pain relievers and decongestants, whereas those in the test population reporting symptoms were treated with hourly doses of 1000 mg of Vitamin C for the first 6 hours and then 3 times daily thereafter. Those not reporting symptoms in the test group were also administered 1000-mg doses 3 times daily.

RESULTS: Overall, reported flu and cold symptoms in the test group decreased 85% compared with the control group after the administration of megadose Vitamin C. CONCLUSION: Vitamin C in megadoses administered before or after the appearance of cold and flu symptoms relieved and prevented the symptoms in the test population compared with the control group.

Publication Types:
Clinical Trial
Controlled Clinical Trial

PMID: 10543583

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

13. This works

My husband was taking magadoses of Vitamin C in an IV with other things for his Hepatitus C. Even when everyone else around him was getting the flu, he didn't. And the last test he took showed his liver functions to be normal.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

14. No milk thistle, lipoic acid or dandelion?? Just C?? Amazing... and

glad to hear he recovered WITH HIS OWN IMMUNE SYSTEM... oh I see the "other things" up there... nevermind... I'm with you on all of that. If you haven't explored them yet... do check out medicinal mushrooms and or glyconutrients... good stuff there ayeshahaqqiqa... really really good stuff. ciao!! :)

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

18. Oh yeah, that too

lipoic acid in the IV and in tablets. He takes some herb tablets that are a blend and seem to have done the most to help him. My doctor does some really wonderful things....

[HysteryDiagnosis]

24. What state does your doctor practice in?? If he is in NY I want his

name..... in email if necessary... he could do something wonderful for mom... cuz, since he has the white coat... she would listen... your doc sounds like the sort of well read and educated physician I am looking for myself, however, I have educated myself in this area for several years now and like they say... once you put your foot in, there is no looking back.... great, isn't it?? The power of the human body when supported with the things that it uses to fight with, communicate with and so forth....

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

30. Arkansas

though she has patients from all over the country. You can read about her non-profit foundation at http://www.futurevisionsfoundation.org
After she cured my husband, I became a member of the Board of Directors and am active in fundraising and publicity. We are completing a new Education Center which will include a sauna and hydrotherapy. Our next step will be to build a full size teaching clinic, where doctors may be trained in integrative medicine, and the general public can be taught how to live well.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

33. If the gov would fund this sort of thing... (bless you for doing this) the

healthcare costs in this country could be cut in half... easily and effectively... but that is a secret the pharmcos don't want people to know... pity how the system is built on disease and not wellness.

[Kablooie]

10. Yes, but in 1918...

People didn't wash their hands regularly.

There was no knowlege of DNA or antiserums.

There was a messy war going on with terrible sanitation and medical care.

There was little knowlege of how viruses spread.

There was no internet, TV or radio.

There was no study done on previous influenza epidemics.



Change all of these (and more) and you will get different results. 1918 will not be repeated in the same form. Granted there could be a serious outbreak of disease but we are tremendously more prepared than they were then.

[me b zola]

22. Handwashing is the #1 way to decrease the spread of infectious disease

Thanks for a little historical context. :hi:

[greyl]

11. Thanks for bringing this side of the debate up.

A non-hysterical and cooperative attitude by the populace is essential to thwarting an out-of-control virus.
The key is citizens who are educated about the issue and therefore don't "need" to be shot protect other lives.

[beam me up scottie]

25. We're running a bit short on

non-hysterical citizens tonight.

Accurate information is being drowned out by the shrieking of the anti-vacs and conspiroids.

[Silverhair]

28. Yes, and judging from the responses, I just farted in their elevator. NT

[beam me up scottie]

32. Quick!

Shut the door-we can contain them!

Uh oh, too late...

:banghead:

[cynatnite]

35. And there are colorized masks for protection, too! (profit off of fear)

Bird Flu Masks (NanoMasks) have been purchased by the US Department of Defense for military soldiers, and the NanoMask filters have been shown to kill the Bird Flu (H5N1) by an independent laboratory. The Nano Mask is the first face mask in the world to utilize nanotechnology enhanced filter media to effectively isolate and destroy viral and bacterial contaminants. Nanoparticles enhance the intrinsic filtration efficiency of the media by acting as a destructive absorbent to kill virus and bacteria that come in contact with the filtration system. (NanoMask Testing and Time Kill Study)

Bird Flu Protection may be used to obtain current bird flu news or visit the Bird Flu Forum to discuss the NanoMask or Avian Flu with others that are concerned about the possible pandemic. The Avian Influenza (H5N1 strain) is serious and the only way we can protect ourselves is by educating our families and friends. Learn as much as you can, because ignorance could have fatal consequences.

http://birdfluprotection.com/

[Silverhair]

39. Should work against regular flu too. Thanks. Bookmarked. Will order. NT

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. We've had this discusion

the problem with the modern day is we will have MULTIPLE patient zeros.

That said, a traditional quarantine (taking bush out) works, the way it was handled during SARS in Toronto, it worked... that is the model we may need to follow

Oh and another tidbit from 1918, once it got out, the military got involved wth medical units and rarely guard units as MPs

[cornermouse]

17. Bird flu...Birds...Flying birds...Birds fly further than airborne viruses

Unless you kill every single bird into this country, your quarantine is doomed to failure.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

19. Yeeeeeeeeeesssssssss..... we would certainly need to create

some border pollys..... to keep them coralled... heh heh heh....

[Silverhair]

23. You didn't read it at all did you?

I specifially said that a quarantine against H5N1 WOULD NOT WORK.

To be able to talk in the abstract about a quarantine, I used Marburg for the scenario virus.

May I suggest actually reading a post before you respond?

[cornermouse]

43. I did read it.

And I observed a fact which apparently made you mad. That's sort of unfortunate, I guess.

[DemInDistress]

21. How do you quarantine NYC

Chicago,LA,Seattle,Boston.I'll wait for an answer till hell freezes over...thanks

[Silverhair]

26. You can't. Too big. That's why I used Ennis, TX to talk about it.

I wanted to talk about the concept itself.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. You don't modern techniques

look for what is called Patient zero, that is your original point, then all his points of contact. You quarantine in the hospital those who are two times removed and have a chance to spread it

A modern quarantine, such as it was done with SARS, does not involve the whole city, but very targeted, aka affected, population groups, that is why using the army is a bad idea

You also quarantine at times the hospital and the medical workers, and families) but if well done, you are not talking of the whole city

you have to think of the whole city, you lost control and the point is not to reach that point

Oh and wash your hands and the rest of the routine by the way... it HELPS

[Silverhair]

34. You are correct about a modern quarantine.

That is the only way it can be done in a major city. I used Ennis and put the quarantine a few days out for the sake of the scenario.

An entire town would be a conceivable next step.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. Yes it would

[DemInDistress]

38. Cant be done...

their are 1,000,000 school kids in NYC,once a cold or flu gets started
it cant be stopped until it runs its course but thanks for the answer
I have to run out now BBL...

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. I gave you the theory

the practice, only way it will work is.. they get to patient zero in the first 12 hours... the chances of that happening I fear are not that high

[Silverhair]

41. That is next to impossible. NT

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. Agreed

that is why I said the chances are very low, once it reaches the 100 patient, the growth is exponential in the transmision rate

[EST]

27. You make a good case but there is no way that the conclusion

is justified. It is merely an assumption.

The 1918 flu pandemic was raging in europe and across the far east, primarily attacking young to middle aged adults. The entry of the US into WW1 and the increasing world wide travel at that time assured an even larger spread of the disease, allowing for, in my opinion and that of many historans, a multiplicity of entry routes into the American continent.

I do not think any sort of qurrantine is going to make much of a difference, this time. The emphasis has to be on forcing the pharma corps to be good citizens, even to the point of nationalizing them, in order to do what we know can help--producing both vaccines and anti-virals in quantities far beyond the minimum amount necessary.
If they refuse to do this, the folks who survive the coming pandemic need to destroy whatever remains of the corporatocracy and create a government that actually serves the people, not the other way around.

[IowaGuy]

31. The Avian flu is here and has been since 2004.....

variations of the virus have been confirmed on this continent...in humans, at least 2 cases have been confirmed...one in Canada, one in New York.

Cases have been confirmed in birds from the northeast coast to Texas.

while these viral strains are not known to be able to be passed from human to human....it is an indicator that the cat is already out of the bag in terms of being able to effectively regionally isolate it.

This has been cooking for several years here, and is cooking all over the world now. There is no rational way to lock this country down (all ports, airports, borders?) and isolate ourselves from it. Only a fool would believe that you are going to stop an airborne virus with such a existing global coverage by shootin' people up w/ a M-16.

Note that the CDC document for planning and preparation for a pandemic flu makes no mention of militarily quarantining entire sections of the country.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/us.htm

http://www.dhhs.gov/nvpo/pandemics/

[Silverhair]

37. I wan't talking about Avian flu.

In my first paragraph I said that a quarantine against Avian flu would not work, for the reasons you stated.