A few Rational Words about Avian Flu

[Avalux]

There have been a lot of posts today about this virus - but it's difficult to discuss because it's so complicated. Anyway - for what it's worth, I know a bit about it and follow the surveillance daily. Here's my 2 cents:

The possibility of avian influenza A recombining with human influenza A to form a virus that's easily transmittable from human to human is very real. Go here for some info on the stages of a pandemic:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

However - predicting when it will occur is difficult, and so is predicting mortality rate. It could happen in a couple of years or as many as 50.

That said - I do see this whole thing being hyped by our government and the media and instead of educating people about this virus and how to take care of themselves, they're scaring them.

So this is the deal: Yes, an avian flu pandemic is a real possibility. Yes, the whole thing is being sensationalized.

Somewhere within all of that, it's best to be prepared, be educated and understand what may happen, independent of what the TV tells us.

[Lex]

1. Thanks . . .

I'm glad you posted this.

It's best to understand the facts of what might happen and try not to be hyped by the media or the fear-mongering that Bush officials push.

Thanks. :thumbsup:

[SidDithers]

2. Kick...

thanks for chiming in, was hoping we'd hear from you on this subject.

Sid

[Avalux]

3. I'll give it a kick too. n/t

[CoffeeCat]

4. You make some excellent points...

I've been reading about bird flu for more than a year.

The scientific and medical journals, as well as other serious publications have been taking this subject seriously.

The subject of bird flu is a very important one. It's an issue on which everyone needs to be informed.

With that said, what Junior and the MSM say--has nothing to do with anything. Junior's jumping on board, because he sees an opportunity to "Patriot Act" us again, with another national disaster. If he cared about bird flu, he'd be talking about preparation and making Tamiflu more affordable and accessible. He's not. He's talking about militarizing our neighborhoods--a ridiculous solution that most medical experts agree is absurd, at best.

Ignore Junior. Ignore the fearmongering that the MSM is blasting. Do your own research.

Maybe a pandemic will happen, maybe it won't. However, I think we can all agree that this is a serious subject, and we all know that Junior is the last person we would consult on important matters.

[Avalux]

7. Big battle with Roche right now -

would make sense to relax the patent and allow Tamiflu to be manufactured generically by as many cos. that can make it in order to SAVE LIVES.

However, big pharma will fight it and come up with all sorts of excuses.
They have 2 concerns: money and liability. That's it.

Here's a link to the article, posted on DU:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5031024&mesg_id=5031024

[CoffeeCat]

13. I actually purchased Tamiflu today....

I went to the doctor for another matter, and I asked about Tamiflu. I told my Dr. that I wanted Rx's for the four members of my family.

She tried to talk me out of it.

I told her I really wanted the drug and that it was important for me to keep it on hand--like I'd have cough syrup or Nyquil for a cold.

She would only give me one Rx for myself. She wouldn't write out Rxs for kids or husband.

I was surprised. Even with insurance, one 5-day dose of Tamiflu cost me $40. Every other Rx has cost me $15. The pharmacist said that most insurance companies will only cover half of the cost of Tamiflu. The pharmacist said it is considered a "nonessential drug"...and I was unsure what that meant.

Each 5-day dosage, for those without insurance is $80. That's a lot of money. If Bush really cared about bird flu, and was plugged into the reality of this situation (instead of worring about how he could exploit it and make this country his fascist playground), he would help to make Tamiflu more affordable to EVERYONE.

Like you said, sparosnare--a generic form of Tamiflu should be available. Junior should be able to say, "This is a national emergency. There may be a pandemic; there may not be. However, everyone in the country should have access to Tamiflu or a generic form..and we need more companies manufacturing it and we need more affordable forms of it." He's not saying that. He's for the pharmas and their profit lines. Again, he doesn't care about bird flu, so everyone needs to ignore anything he says on the issue.

I'm glad I got it. My husband is going in to get an Rx for himself, and I'll take the kids in for check ups and get their Rx's then.

With Junior at the helm, I'm taking no chances. In my opinion, it's as if the entire country is sitting in New Orleans. The levies are weak and if a cat 4 hits--it's a disaster.

Who knows if bird flu will mutate into a virus that can spread from person--->person. That's the $64,000 question. From my understanding, H5N1 is VERY similar to the 1918 flu. Scientists are predicting that H5N1 will mutate and behave similar to the 1918 flu. I'm not in a panic, but I believe we're in the tropical storm phase, and I'm making darn sure that I'm ready in case "the perfect storm" happens.

[cynatnite]

16. You may think you're being prepared, but think again...

These things have a tendency to mutate and this sort of medication may not even work at all. There is so many unknowns that you may have wasted your money.

Plus, I have major problems with people getting medication they DON'T need. It denies those who may need it in the future IF a pandemic does break out.

Your doctor should have refused you.

[CoffeeCat]

21. I hope a medical expert will chime in...

...but this is my understanding of Tamiflu, as it relates to bird flu.

If I am wrong, someone please correct me.

It is my understanding that Tamiflu lessens the effects of all flu strains--including bird flu. Tamiflu has been shown, in research, to help a person fight the flu, but it is not a cure--nor is it a vaccine.

My doctor said that Tamiflu works to protect healthy cells that haven't been infected with the flu. This is why you need to take it within one or two days of having flu symptoms. It helps the lessen the spread throughout the body and shorten the time the flu ravages your body.

With that said, I won't take Tamiflu until I have signs of the flu. I'm not taking it now. I don't see this as a vaccine. This will sit on my shelf until I need it.

I don't understand your remark "It denies those who may need it in the future IF a pandemic breaks out." I have a family--2 very small children and a husband. Our family has the right to be prepared. We have just as much claim on that medicine as anyone. If a pandemic happens, I want to be prepared. I'm doing the hard work, the research and the leg work to get this medicine.

Dr Dean Adell was talking about bird flu during his show this past weekend. He discussed the possibility of a pandemic and he said that if the statistics bear out--this could wipe out 1/6 of the American population--based on mortality rates. He said that the 1918 flu killed 5 percent who contracted it. Bird flu kills 50 percent of those who contract it. When you do the math (comparing how many were killed in 1918 with a 5 percent factor vs 2005 with a 50 percent factor), we could lose 1/6 of the population.

Dr Dean isn't exactly known for his hyperbole. He's usually the one to calm everyone down and quell hysteria.

I don't know if a pandemic will happen. No one does. However, many signs point to a very strong likelihood. I have the right to be prepared and to protect my husband and children. Everyone does.

[cynatnite]

22. But how can you tell if it's ordinary run of the mill flu or the other?

You can't. Why get medication for something you may not even get? Why get medication when you don't know the difference? Get a sniffle and then take it? Start coughing? What?

The problem is IF there is a pandemic there will be a run on this medication and even IF there is, there is nothing that says you or your family will get it. By having it 'on the shelf' you will deny those who get DIAGNOSED by a physician those meds should there be a shortage. Drug shortages are not uncommon.

Go ahead and live your life in fear of what MAY or MAY NOT happen. I think this kind of preparation does more harm to the public than good.

It pisses me off that this has been blown as big as it has. There is always a risk of something. Pandemics, epidemics have been predicted for years and will continue to be so. We could get hit by an asteroid out of the blue tomorrow. Are you going to dig a hole and build a shelter because of WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW?

on edit: standard antibiotics are still going to be the first choice to fight this IF it happens.

[Mojorabbit]

31. This is why

Tamiflu for bird flu?

Meanwhile, the specter of a bird flu pandemic made the news again. Studies in two journals reported that a pandemic of such avian flu could be nipped in the bud if there are enough doses of the prescription flu drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir) to go around and if patients were quickly quarantined. The studies, appearing in the journals Science and Nature, used computer simulations to model what would happen in Thailand if humans contracted avian flu and passed on the disease to others.

Using preventive antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu would be more effective than flu vaccines, researchers at Emory University in Atlanta and at London's Imperial College said, because flu vaccines often only work against specific strains of flu.

The drawback? Stopping a possible pandemic in its tracks would require a global stockpile of at least 3 million doses of Tamiflu -- which doesn't exist -- and other antiviral drugs like it. Also, authorities worldwide would have to be prepared to act fast.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/08/04/journal.roundup/
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
If it breaks out in this country it would be handy to have and I am sure it will be all over the news if it happens in an area where one is. By then the few million doses we have stockpiled in this country will be distributed to predetermined people. There will not be any for the general population.
and on edit antibiotics do not work on viral infections.

[kestrel91316]

32. Sorry. Antibiotics have ABSOLUTELY no effect against viruses. NONE.

[cynatnite]

33. Read more:

http://www.thestate.com/mld/charlotte/living/health/12839259.htm?source=rss&channel=charlotte_health

History's worst flu pandemic, the Spanish flu of 1918-19, infected about 25 percent of the world's population, causing 20 million to 50 million deaths. That's a mortality rate of 1 percent to 2 percent, which is about what officials expect of a new pandemic, Engel said.

He doubts the next flu pandemic will be as bad as the Spanish flu outbreak because today's antibiotics could prevent many deaths from bacterial pneumonia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/national/09flu.html

Dr. Kilbourne emphasized that medical care had improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then turned blue overnight and drowned from blood, with fluid leaking into their lungs, many more died of what are now believed to be bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.

[kestrel91316]

34. I am well aware that bacterial infections are a frequent sequel to

viral pneumonia, but antibiotics should not be touted as a primary means of averting flu, because they cannot avert it. They CAN decrease mortality from complications.

It is actually believed by most medical authorities that the 1918 victims who died within hours, died as a result of CYTOKINE STORM, rather than secondary bacterial infection. Bacteria simply can't reproduce that quickly. (Yes, I know my germs)

[cynatnite]

35. No one is touting them...

They're applying common sense here. Using antibiotics against a secondary complication can help slow the bug enough for the body to be able to make the big fight. It shouldn't be dismissed out of hand in favor for a drug that MIGHT or MIGHT NOT work against something that MAY or MAY NOT happen.

No one knows enough of anything so I don't get why some are looking at this like it's the end of the world as we know it.

[kestrel91316]

37. Here's my personal "rule of thumb" for when I use antibiotics in

the flu: when I start coughing up the icky yellow or green stuff, lol. Doesn't happen every time I get it, but that's the clue that bacteria have become a problem, IMHO.

[Avalux]

25. Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) inhibits influenza A and B

It reduces the number of viral particles released from an infected cell. Viruses are parasites that use host cells (in this case mucous membrane cells) to replicate, then expode from the cell destroying it, enter the bloodstream and the process begins again. So the number of free viral particles looking to infect healthy cells is reduced.

It only works within the first 2 days of symptoms and must be taken for 4-6 weeks.

Not a cure, not a vaccine and will not affect any comorbid infections (bacterial or viral pneumonia).

This particular flu, H5N1 targets the cells deep in the lungs - different than the flu we see every year. We hope oseltamivir will help, but we really don't know for sure.

If you can get it, that's fine. There isn't nearly enough for the population though, and I predict there will be a clampdown on prescriptions for healthy people.

[Mojorabbit]

30. There was some research done on mice

that showed that after five days on tamiflu there was a relapse of this type of flu, mice that had eight days of therapy..that group had more survivors. I therefore scored a ten day supply.

[tavalon]

36. And if you were only a mouse

It's already shown some tendency to require twice the normal dose of tamiflu and may end up not even being averted by it. So, you might want to get a bit more.

[Inland]

5. What we need is public health in place for any pandemic.

Given that whole evolution/mutuation thing, the interconnected and populated worlds is increasingly at risk of *something*. Instead of concentrating on vaccines for bird flu, there should be structures and contingency plans in place that are flexible and low cost so that they can always be there for any large scale outbreak.

But public health ranks right up there with levees on the things that people want to pay for.

[proud patriot]

6. Good points

:hi:

[Avalux]

8. Thanks!

:hi:

[izzybeans]

9. This whole thing reminds of the movie where the bicyclist has the disease

that made him bleed from his ears. It's on old 80's film. Can't remember the name, but I do remember sitting around as a child waiting for my ears to start bleeding b/c I was sure I was next. I see a lot of that here today concerning an unpredictable scenario with avian flu.

[Lex]

10. Oh crap! My ears are going to start bleeding with this?!

I kid, I kid.

:hi:

[izzybeans]

18. I don't mean to be crass, it's just an observation that brought back

memories. It seems a lot of people are leaping into the conclusion that they are immediately at risk.

Point is my ears have yet to bleed and the sky is not falling, and all the other parables that teach us to seek out the info. first.

I wish I could remember the movie title, it may have been based upon a true story.

:hi:

[gulfcoastliberal]

11. If governments around the world are stocking up on tamiflu, so should you!

No reason not to be prepared. Buy a lot & store it in your fridge. If/when a pandemic breaks out, there won't be any for you, your family, your loved ones.

[Mojorabbit]

19. Don't store it in the fridge

It is best stored in the seventy something degree range

[Coastie for Truth]

12. Do some reading - in something at the "Scientific American" survey level

<><>

Both Molecular Biology Made Simple and Fun by David P. Clark and Lonnie D. Russell and Genetics for Dummies by Tara Rodden Robinson are good, readable books.

Both books are worthwhile, and both hit the "high points":

1. How a virus attacks you and makes you sick -- it takes over some of your DNA and modifies it to reproduce itself.

2. How your body fights a virus - "T" cells and white blood cells, and bone marrow.

3. How vaccines work.

4. How a virus changes from a "bird to bird" virus to a "bird to human virus" to a "human to human" virus.

5. What is happening at the DNA level - the virus' DNA and the bird's DNA, and the human's DNA.

Simple, readable, at about the level of a readable "Scientific American" survey article, college freshman biology and chemistry survey for liberal arts students, lots of stick figures. And not insulting.


Rule of thumb: start either of the books when the airplane pulls away from the terminal in California, finish it as the plane starts the approach on the East Coast - and you will know and understand more about Avian flu, genetics, and biochem then 99% of our fellow citizens.

Next step -- hit the NIH search site, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi> frequently with "H5N1" and "Avian flu" as search terms.

If you know the "basics" - there is nothing "magical" or "mystical" -- and "no great leaps of faith."

[Avalux]

15. Good stuff. I saw you posted these earlier today.

I haven't read them myself, but they look easy to understand for nonmedical folks. :hi:

[Coastie for Truth]

20. I am not a Medical type

but when I retired "early" my employer gave me a purchase order for a bunch of graduate credits at a local university - so I spent it all on Biology, Biochem, Bioengineering, etc.

That was just after the "Dot Com Melt Down" - so I didn't see any value in computer science or computer engineering.

[cynatnite]

14. Right on the money!

The reaction was either over the top or not enough.

When AIDS was taking more and more lives, the government ignored the problem even when the death toll continued to climb and affected all segments of the populaton.

There is always going to be some bug ready to break out to wipe out humanity. There is always going to be some unknown asteroid ready to strike the planet. There is always the chance I'll buy it driving my care or my head exploding from an anyerism.

There's always something. The best we can do is to keep an eye on it, be educated and continue to live our lives as before rather than have fear do it.

[TahitiNut]

17. While this deserves repeating, we must also be aware of ...

... how the rampant corruption that currently exists in business and government will take an actual threat such as H5N1 and both vacuum up taxpayer dollars for private profit and fail to provide the resources needed (and paid for) to prevent or ameliorate the widespread death such a pandemic could bring.

We're still seeing the utter failure of FEMA/HS do remedy the damage caused by the absolutely foreseeable and foreseen hurricane Katrina. Where'd the money go? Where's the money going? It's sure not going to the people most impoverished! Indeed, they seem to be investing more in preventing poorer people from getting assistance than assuring it.

There's a kind of sociopathic schizophrenia in this administration. They're willing to pay more than enough taxpayer dollars (and debt) to prevent impoverished people from "cheating" (getting more than they're vaguely entitled to get) but nowhere nearly enough taxpayer dollars to prevent corrupt businesses from being paid without delivering the services paid for. We again see the "trickle up" philosophy - that it's OK to enrich the rich but not OK to let the impoverished get a single dime more than can be prevented. If we were to add up all the costs of 'prevention' and overpayment to the wealthy, we could probably afford to reestablish entire towns gratis. The operative assumption seems to be that the working poor are undeserving but the wealthy are deserving.

The same kind of systemic corruption will fail miserably to prepare this nation for an avian flu that actually fulfills the promise of a pandemic with a 50% mortality. Money will be spent to enrich the rich (payment for services and products never delivered - and associated profits), provide vaccine and medical care for the rich and powerful (at great cost), but will still leave the poor and elderly to die.

[Ikonoklast]

23. So sad in a way

Our planet is already in the grips of a pandemic. It is a well-known viral infection spread human to human. It is called HIV/AIDS and our government is not too concerned about it, even as sub-Saharan Africa is being decimated by it. It is a far more real threat to the population of this planet RIGHT NOW and we are doing little or nothing to stop it.

But when was the last time you heard anything about it in the MSM? I guess a few million dead in Africa and Asia due to AIDS doesn't register here, but the chance of getting the flu is personal.

[Avalux]

28. All has to do with transmission.

HIV has a stigma attached because it's primarily sexually transmitted. We know how a person gets HIV, and because of the initial population of infected in this country - white gay males - many people look the other way and don't care. It is sad.

[paineinthearse]

24. Thank you for posting such a rational piece

Seems the irrational / hyperboile bposts get the attetnion, at the determent of the sound and reasonable informational ones.

Go figure.

Speaking of that, see "Roche and its lobbying group resist compulsory licensing of Tamiflu" at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5031024&mesg_id=5031024

It's been in Gen for 13 hours with 1 or 2 replies.

p.s. 5th nomination!

[LynneSin]

26. Will the fusion of the 2 viruses happen before or after the killer bees?

I'm still waiting for my death to the Killer Bees that were coming up from the south

[Avalux]

27. Maybe they'll occur at the same time.

And we'll get a double-whammy. That would make Bush wet his knickers, I bet. :evilgrin: :hi:

[eShirl]

38. after the Titanic sinks

and after New Orleans is flooded

[Avalux]

29. Thanks for all who replied - I'm off to bed.

:hi: