What we don't know about the avian flu and why we shouldn't overreact

[cynatnite]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9547047/site/newsweek/

snip:
We don’t know exactly what nature of genetic change is necessary to make this type of human-to-human transmission possible. This particular type has never been in our species—to our knowledge anyway. So there are two implications. That absolutely no one reading this article is immune. And, two, that we don’t know how it tracks in human beings. It is not a normal flu. For this flu to get into a form that would rapidly spread from one human to another or from a human to a towel or a cup or a doorknob or a subway pole to another human, we don’t know what would have to change. We also cannot answer another question that comes up. Will it still be killing 55 percent of all people if it changes? We don’t know if it has to forsake most of the virulence if it changes. We hope so, but we don’t know if that is the case…It could happen through a recombination event or a mutational drift event.

:snip:
There is a vaccine announced by the National Institutes of Health that targets a particular strain of H5N1 in a particular strain in chickens... But it seems only to provide protective immunity for humans at the highest possible dose. It would mean two rounds of vaccinations. You’d have a real high drop-out rate… The other problem is that the vaccine must be thought of as a prototype because the human-to-human transmitter will have changed itself .

snip:
But there is a treatment made by Roche Pharmaceutical in Switzerland: Tamiflu. Is that the only one?
It’s not really a treatment. It doesn’t cure you, but it slows the ability of the virus to overwhelm your body and make lots of copies of itself and that buys you time to develop appropriate immunity and kill it off. Even then, you need to take it in the first 36 hours. You need to know how to tell the difference between a cold and the flu. You have to be able to pay for the prescription, while you are deathly ill, and dose yourself in less than 36 hours.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/national/09flu.html

snip:
Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, chief of the molecular pathology department at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, said, "I would not say it's imminent or inevitable." Dr. Taubenberger said he believes that there will eventually be a pandemic, but that whether it will be bird flu or another type, no one can say.

snip:
"Most bird flus emerge briefly and are relatively localized," said Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah and chairman of the pandemic influenza task force of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. The most worrisome thing about H5N1, Dr. Pavia said, is that it has not gone away.

Some scientists suspect that if H5N1 has not caused a pandemic by now, then it will not, because it must be incapable of making the needed changes. But others say there is no way to tell what the virus will do as time goes on. And they point out that no one knows how long it took for the 1918 virus to develop the properties that led to a pandemic.

snip:
We should be worried but not panicked," Dr. Pavia said.

The timing of the bird flu's emergence also makes scientists nervous, because many believe that based on history, the world is overdue for a pandemic. Pandemics occur when a flu virus changes so markedly from previous strains that people have no immunity and vast numbers fall ill.

The fear "is very much overdone, in my opinion," said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu.

The bird flu, he said, is distantly related to earlier flus, and humans have already been exposed to them, providing some resistance.

[niyad]

1. I figured it was more fear-mongering, and refuse to worry--or get a shot

or anything else.

personally, I think they need to be working on a vaccine against the fundamentalist reichwing--THAT one, I would consider.

[koopie57]

2. I don't think that I'm comfortable dismissing this flu

and I plan to get the shot cuz I work in a hospital and they are free, but no matter how you feel, I would still make an attempt to wash my hands often with soap and water and to eat more fruit and get a little more sleep. Also drink more water. I don't think we need to be scared, but we need to be aware. Small precautions will not make a big dent in our lifestyles. There is a difference between being stupid and being ignorant.

[cynatnite]

4. I'm not dismissing it...

And those who work in the medical field should be some of the first protected. It's essential to help contain any possible outbreak.

When I worked in the medical field we were immunized against just about everything there was.

Common sense works better than anything else. Like you said, washing hands, a healthy diet and other good habits helps.

I just loathe the idea of taking a 'sky is falling approach' when we know so little and what we do know doesn't mean we should act like it is.

[koopie57]

5. I just reread my reply to your message

and I didn't mean to sound so harsh. In all actuality I agreed with your point, but my mind was heading in a different direction. You are right, we need to keep our wits about us and that is why I talked about washing hands and stuff. I think that I'm more afraid of this administration's reaction to the flu than the actual flu. This talk about the military getting involved, and then seeing that black man in NO get the sh*t kicked out of him ... it is scary. Anway, I didn't mean to sound like a jerk. I'm sorry about that.

[DLnyc]

3. Really good info on Avian Flu from WHO (World Health Org)

Here's a link to a FAQ page on WHO's website. Very detailed and no-nonsense, not spinning or entertaining, just info.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/index.html

Two points:
Thank Gawd GWB doesn't appoint the head of WHO.
Too bad Bolton doesn't want the US to support anything the UN does:

(snip)
WHO, FAO, and OIE have jointly issued an urgent appeal to the international community to make adequate resources and other forms of support available quickly in the interest of protecting international public health.
(snip)

(On second thought, maybe it's better the US doesn't help; If our help is anything like the way FEMA 'helped' NOLA, we would all be dead in a week.)