What will happen when Dow goes below 10,000?

[garybeck]

I'm thinking this could be a critical moment. I'm not into stocks that much but I know the market has been flat since Bush took office in 2000. Actually I think it's a little lower now than it was. But I think 10,000 is a big number in investor's minds and if it goes below, it will be a big deal. It seems to be inching closer and closer for the last few weeks and I'm thinking it's going to happen by the end of this month.

[rfranklin]

1. It was below 10,000 a few times in 2004...

Usually what happens is the public panics and the professionals buy like crazy.

[bryant69]

2. Hasn't it already been below that ?

Yes it has in 2002 and 2003 ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=5y ). I don't see it as being as big as you imply. obviously not a good sign - a very bad sign for the economy and for Bush personally - but not the bottom falling out of the economy.



Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Cactus44]

3. No.

It won't. It's been range-bound between 10,250 and 10,650 for quite a few months now and will stay there probably through the end of Q1 '06.

[leveymg]

10. How much do you think the Dow-30 will discount/add for:

1) Rove and Scooter's indictments?
2) 19 indictments of WH underlings?
3) The whole enchalada - 19 indictments plus Bush & Cheney named as unindicted co-conspirators?

Personally, I think after an initial 200 point drop, the market will rally if it's clear that there's going to be a smooth transition and an adequate caretaker government ready to step into place (a bipartisan committee and some cabinet holdovers).

If Bush signals he intends to fight to stay in the Oval Office, however, there could a BIG sell-off.

BushCo's departure isn't exactly unexpected. That's why I think this is going to go smoother than most might think.

Welcome to DU, Cactus7.:hi:

[mattclearing]

4. It won't.

It's being managed by institutional investors. It would take something of 9/11 proportions to break their control at this point.

[Skink]

5. Don't forget there is plenty of money to be made in a declining market.

You have to have money to play with and it doesn't hurt to be a little unethical although that is not a prerequisite.

[mattclearing]

6. Like placing put options on airlines that are going to crash?

Yeah, people clearly know how to profit from tragedy.

[Ioo]

7. Nothing, it has hovered in this area for a while...

[Neil Lisst]

8. garybeck, got you covered

Here is a place you can find in chart form any time frame you wish on the stock market. Choose you time frame and it will get the chart for you.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643

Now, for your question. The DOW will likely drop below 10,000, but I would like to note something very important. The DOW is no longer a good indicator of the health of the US economy. The DOW's component companies can do well while the US economy falters.

The DOW is like a bookie where bets are placed. As long as the overall bets are even, the DOW remains relatively constant. Right now, hedging has taken the highs and lows out, like Prozac for the financial markets. But it cloaks, not cures, the maladies.


http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/

[pattim]

9. I count it crossing the 10,000 mark in the downward direction

What looks like 4 times since he was elected. No biggie.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

[On the Road]

11. It's a Psychological Barrier

Not the most important one, but it is easily remembered. Active traders are more likely to look at resistance points, where the market has peaked or bottomed in the past, and long-term averages like the 200-day.

[hatrack]

12. Larry Kudlow will break out in assholes and shit himself to death

:evilgrin:

[w8liftinglady]

13. Hehe

:rofl:

[butterfly77]

18. And his fat headed buddy ...

he was sweating and shitting bricks last year about his stocks.



:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[zbdent]

14. Republicans pour on the "Look at the wonderful economy!"

all while blaming it on Katrina and Clinton . . .

[HereSince1628]

15. It's been floating in 10K all year, down then up, up then down

I don't see any reason for it to go below 10K. I think a large part of the over value has been wrung out of it in the past 5 years as it has gone nowhere.

Stock brokers long for irrational exuberance, but it ain't there. They are now begging Bushies to strike taxes on investments in order to pump more money (demand) and inflate values.

Are we stupid enought to let them do this to us?

[gratuitous]

16. A humorous little side by side comparison

Bill Clinton first full day in office was January 21, 1993.

DJIA closed at 3253.02 that day.

At the close of the day on October 10, 1997 (a Friday), the DJIA closed at 8045.20

That's 4792.18 points higher, about a 247% increase.

George Bush's first full business day in office was January 22, 2001.

DJIA closed at 10,578.24 that day.

Yesterday, October 11, 2005, the DJIA closed at 10,253.17.

That's 325.07 point lower, a smidged more than a 3% decrease.

If the stock market under Bush had gained the same number of points as it did under Clinton, the DJIA would be trading at 15,370.42. If it had done the same percentage increase, it would be trading at 26,161.55.

[recoveringdittohed]

17. Harry Truman was right

"If you want to live like a Republican, you've got to vote like a Democrat."

[Jack from Charlotte]

19. Here's S&P 500 returns on Clinton vs Moron.....

When Clinton went into office the S&P 500 was at 433.73 and when he left it was st 1342.54 for a record 17.4 % annual increase per year... for those 8 years.

AWOL/Moron? It was 1342.54 when he entered and at yesterday's close it was at 1177.68. So for 4 3/4 years under the idiot it's down about 3% per year.

Under the AWOL/Moron this is the 1st negative return under any pres since the Republican, Herb Hoover was pres. And remember.... that's through WWII, 4 years of Korean War and about 10 years of Viet Nam.

And when this idiot was running around trying to push that Social Security in stocks deal, I never once heard the press say.... "Under your guidance we'd have all lost money."