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Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 09:35 AM by Brotherjohn
... there are a WHOLE LOT of assumptions, and just downright opinionated characterizations, and a WHOLE LOT more of simply "Why?" questions in lieu of evidence.
PeacePatriot may have a citation for everything he/she claims, and I remember reading articles on most of the claims. But that doesn't tie a single one of them together (although they may actually be). For every leap, for every "Why?", the scenario gets more and more unlikely.
Much more likely, for instance, regarding sending of Wilson to Africa and "rush and panic" to discredit him... from the very start:
"Why would Cheney send Wilson or the CIA on a wild goose to Niger" Well, for starters, Cheney didn't send him (as we all know, and as Wilson has vociferously refuted in countering an inane RW talking point). But it makes for a better conspiracy theory, doesn't it?
So the CIA sent Wilson, after being asked by Cheney's office to look into the matter. What is so surprising about that? PP is making several assumptions right off the bat that would even make this surprising at all. First, PP assumes that Cheney was in on the forgeries. There are many parties throughout the world that were over-enthusiastic about pushing war in Iraq, and I myself would LOVE it if we conclusively linked the forgeries to the WH. But for now, that's a pipe dream. There is good evidence that possibly Italian Intelligence forged them, or even possibly a neocon with links to the WH (I forget the guys name, PNAC-er, I believe TPM has reported on this). But to assume Cheney knew they were forgeries is a big assumption.
The assumption is also implicitly made that Cheney et al KNEW there were NO WMDs in Iraq. Much more likely is that Cheney, Bush, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, etc. were all convinced Iraq had WMDs, or at least they wanted to believe it and figured if it wasn't true, it would be hard to prove the negative (which is what they were asking Saddam to do, which they knew was impossible). They were pushing the CIA to say so, were told by the CIA it was a slam-dunk case, and simply wanted to believe it and in no mood to question and alternative evidence. They were also cocky and arrogant. They would have no reason to believe if the CIA "invesigated the claim" that it would turn out fake. In fact, they were eager to latch onto ANY evidence presented to support their case.
They just didn't anticipate the CIA would send someone who would stand up to them, or that the evidence would be, in fact, SO incredibly flimsy and easily disproven. These things are usually much more gray, and whatever anybody finds, they can cast the "findings" in a light favorable to them (witness nearly every other bit of WMD "evidence").
As for the "rash panic" to discredit him, there was nothing rash or panicky about it. It was planned out from June 2003, when he was known (or at least suspected by insiders) that Wilson was making such claims off the record to the Wash. Post. Possibly even earlier. He submitted reports discounting the evidence to the CIA and others much earlier.
Were they messy? Yes. Is it possible that they either unintentionally broke the law, or were so arrogant as to assume no one would call them on it? Both of those scenarios are very possible. Karl Rove isn't perfect, nor is he a genius. He's simply arrogant and ruthless. It was always bound to catch up to him.
And then this: "Why the full court press to do this? Why not just ignore Wilson's article, as they had all other dissent--for instance?" They ignored all other dissent?! Coulda fooled me. They "dismissed" at least one general, fired cabinet level personnel, and generally trashed to the nth degree anyone who would DARE to dissent. Swift Boat, anyone? Scott Ritter charges of child molestations, anyone?
They just went too far with this one, and that's why it blew up. They picked the wrong person to attack, and they were too ballsy about making tenuous claims in the SOTU and elsewhere (although they still tried to couch them behind "British officials"). PP is right that they were desperate. The UN was on the berge of proving that there were no WMDs in Iraq.
And the nature of Wilson's "dissent" -- a loudly public NYTimes editorial all but accusing them of lying us into war -- demanded an aggressive response. They were desperate, backed into a corner, and responded with a mean, aggressive, and sloppy counter-attack. The sloppiness of it (breaking the law) combined with Wilson's tenacity, resulted in it becoming much more than the usual case of trashing a dissenter.
So that's just the early stuff. There are other assumptions and characterizations throughout PPs post that have similar alternative, and more likely, explanations. Sorry, but at points it reads like a bad Oliver Stone movie.
Again, though, I'm not putting everything PP says beyond the Bush administration. For instance, I do think Kelly's death was suspicious. Also, though I have seen no real evidence for WMD planting (a few dubious articles), I wouldn't put it beyond them. But I also think the retaliation against Wilson was just par for the course for the WH. They just got sloppy and broke the law (had to happen eventually).
So this long rant is just my contribution to the discussion suggested above. I just don't think most of the scenario as depicted is the most likely way things may have happened. I don't think it was that orchestrated, although I think elements of it may be true.
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