A few Bird Flu facts. Not time to panic, but...

[smoogatz]

My brother's an epidemiologist. My in-laws are both physicians. None of them have an agenda--no grant-funded flu studies to promote, no political axes to grind, no desire to distract the public or the media from Bushco's troubles. They're worried about avian flu. Not losing sleep, yet, but definitely concerned. My brother--a very smart guy--explained to me that this strain of avian flu is a very close relative of the 1918 Spanish flu, an extremely nasty bug that killed 675,000 Americans. He says that the odds are very good that the current bug will mutate in such a way that it can be transmitted from human to human--probably in a matter of months, rather than years. In densely populated areas, a mutated flu would move very quickly from person to person, and kill within a matter of days. Old people and children would be especially vulnerable. My in-laws tell us that, at the moment, treatment options are very limited. Roche is working on a vaccine, but it will be at least a year, most likely, before a safe version is available, and who knows how long before there are enough doses to vaccinate every American. Some antivirals may be effective--but again, the number of available doses is extremely limited.

On edit, I've been asked by Stephanie to include the following: I posted this originally because I'm a bit troubled by the proliferation of "Bird flu is a Bushco scam (or plot)" posts--the problem's not going to go away just because we pretend it's a hoax. What we can do is put pressure on the government to force the big pharma companies to share information about promising vaccines, and when one is developed, to waive exclusive manufacturing and distribution rights. It's crazy that information that could save millions of lives is proprietary.

[NMDemDist2]

1. we can hope that as it mutates, it becomes weaker n/t

[shoelace414]

2. The Question that is never answered is..

How often does an Extremly deadly flu like this decimate a pupolation of birds/swine/whatever without mutating to human to human spreading?

[smoogatz]

4. It happens.

And it may happen this time. I think everyone except a few fundie nutcases looking for signs of the apocalypse hopes it does. But since the CDC unraveled the DNA of this bird flu and found how similar it is to the 1918 flu, everyone in the epidemiological community is pretty alarmed.

[JanMichael]

3. I love these "bird flu" posts. Look, I am not dumping on your relative's

opinions...

But, you basically posted...."OK, don't panic....but, you really need to be panicking right now...."

Come on, what the HELL are DUers supposed to do about this shit?

"There's no vaccine....you can't get drugs that will really help...and the last one killed thousands....but, don't panic."

Why don't you ask your relatives for some CONSTRUCTIVE advice before you post a thread designed to scare people?

Stephanie

[smoogatz]

6. I'm not trying to scare anyone.

I'm a bit troubled, though, by the proliferation of "Bird flu is a Bushco scam (or plot)" posts--the problem's not going to go away just because we pretend it's a hoax. What we can do is put pressure on the government to force the big pharma companies to share information about promising vaccines, and when one is developed, to waive exclusive manufacturing and distribution rights. It's crazy that information that could save millions of lives is proprietary.

[JanMichael]

9. Then why didn't you post that?

now that's a good post.

I NEVER would have gathered that was the direction you were going from your original post.

[smoogatz]

11. Just did.

You asked, I answered.

[JanMichael]

14. It's good enough to post as an original thread

you have some good ideas...but, you aren't going to generate a discussion about those by FINALLY putting them in the middle of a thread.

Stephanie

[smoogatz]

16. Well, here we are, discussing them.

But thanks. Sort of. I think.

On edit--the issue of proprietary rights to important vaccines is now included in the OP.

[0007]

18. Good question, "WHY"

[smoogatz]

20. Oh, for Christ's sake.

Now I'm part of the Bushco conspiracy, I guess. I didn't post it, originally, because I didn't think of posting it until prompted by Stephanie.

[tavalon]

90. Yep

It would be amusing except it's really important.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

13. Here's some suggestions

Like you, I get tired of reading posts that bascially say that a deadly flu is coming and there is nothing you can do about it. Of course there is something you can do about it. And if this version of the flu doesn't come, it will help with other versions.

1. Eat a healthy diet. Yeah, I know fruits and vegetables aren't the best snack foods, but getting the vitamins and minerals they provide can help build up your immune system.

2. Make sure your home is clean. That means vacuuming out heater vents as well as the carpets. Keeping your house clean can help keep germs from spreading.

3. Use a nasal wash. They had a piece on NPR about using a saline solution and how this has helped people who have allergies, and they think that it might help with keeping people from getting the flu. Personally, I use a product made with xylitol. Studies have shown that when its sprayed into the nose, germs can't 'stick', and so don't get into your system. I've been using it for a couple of years now, and it helps with allergies, colds, and I would assume flu, as I haven't gotten flu since I started using it.

4. Cover your mouth and more. Hey, those flu masks the Japanese have used for years are inexpensive, and if they help, why not? Or use a muffler if you don't want to be conspicuous. Also be careful when you open doors. Usually when its flu season, I wear gloves so I don't worry too much. I'm an office manager, and if I notice anyone coming in who is coughing, sneezing, etc, I use a sanitizer on the door knob when they leave. In fact, I keep hand sanitizer around and encourage folks to use it.

I'm not saying that any of these things are going to prevent you from getting the flu. But they sure can't hurt, and they may help keep you healthier this winter.

[stray cat]

23. A good immune system makes one more vulnerable to this.

Unlike most flu in which the young and elderly are most vulnerable. This flu actually activates a strong immune response which is ultimately what makes this type of flu strain most lethal - your immune response kills you instead of the flu. If this one does start spreading in humans - 18-40 year olds will be the most vulnerable.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

58. I'll ask my doctor about this

I've never heard that a strong immune system will actually make you more likely to get sick. How sure are you of this information? Do you have sources that confirm this information? The reason I ask is it seems to me that there have been several posters that are merely intent on panicking people and not giving them any concrete information on what to do about it.

And let's please remember that, although the 1918 flu was pandemic, not everyone got sick, and obviously not everyone died. My grandfather was an MD at the time and pulled through quite a few patients, if their testimonials when he passed away are any indication.

[Mojorabbit]

68. The reason

is with this type of flu your immune system goes overboard and attacks the lungs. The better your immune system the greater the damage.

[tavalon]

94. But a good immune system doesn't make you more susceptable

it makes this kind of flu more deadly for you if you contract it. A good immune system makes you less vulnerable to getting any kind of virus but it's no guarantee.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

71. Read this link on "What is a Cytokine Storm?"...........

<http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-storm.htm>

QUOTE:

We think of external microbes as our worst enemy during an outbreak of influenza or bronchitis, but our own immune systems are potentially more lethal. When our body detects foreign microorganisms indicating an infection, it might over-protect our lungs. We race so many antibodies to the site that they collect in a Cytokine storm, potentially blocking airways and causing suffocation. Medical researchers have identified the stages of the Cytokine storm and are working on treatments, other than flu vaccines, to weaken an overactive immune response.

At all times, sentries circulate in our bloodstream, called white blood cells, that are the first to sense if a virus or bacteria has infiltrated. Immediately, our body sends defenders from the immune system, T-cells, to the site of the infection. During this stage, our immunity functions properly, and T-cells attack the microbes so they do not get too strong a foothold in our lungs.

However, the mere presence of T-cells clustered at one site, especially the lungs, alerts other T-cells that a full-scale war has started. In the second stage, even more T-cells, known as cytokines, flood the lungs. This propagates a Cytokine storm where far too many immune cells are caught in an endless loop of calling even more. The Cytokine storm ends up inflaming the tissue of the lungs and crowding air passages, causing breathing difficulties.

Not only can severe inflammation damage your lungs permanently, but a prolonged Cytokine storm will eventually shut down your breathing. Airducts get clogged and cells no longer properly absorb oxygen. This is what makes the Cytokine storm so deadly in certain epidemic strains, such as bird flu. Even bronchitis, other varieties of influenza, pneumonia, and possibly rheumatoid arthritis are susceptible to triggering a Cytokine storm.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

78. Thank you for the link and for the information

I think that one thing we all can do is to prevent the spread of the virus. That means the barrier method I talked about, sanitation, and, if need be, quarantine. When I was a youngster, I was quarantined for the usual childhood diseases and one that was more serious. I have seen some posters here recoil in horror to the concept of quarantine, but it might be the most effective way of stopping the spread of a virus, especially if used in the early stages of an epidemic. What we must be sure of is that Bush doesn't use it as an excuse for marital law.

[gkhouston]

149. LOL, I think you meant "martial"

but the problem with Bush and quarantine is that we've only heard talk about the most drastic type of quarantine. People feel like we're about to be herded into the Superdome at gunpoint. Quarantine doesn't have to be so extreme. It could mean that schools and malls churches close and people stay in their houses if they're sick. How much of it really has to be done at gunpoint? My impression is that most of the quarantines in 1918 were not done that way.

[tavalon]

93. Not more vulnerable, actually less vulnerable

but if you get this kind of flu despite a good immune system, your good immune system will have a greater response to this flu and you are more likely to drown in the fluids created in your alveoli. That said, getting a poor immune system takes a lifetime of bad choices and a smattering of bad genes and isn't really something to be striven for.

[cat_hair]

127. Where did you hear this?

Perhaps you could post a link? I'd like to read it myself.

Thanks.

[tavalon]

91. Better to get N95 respirator masks

but otherwise, your advice is stellar. And even if you aren't willing to get that kind of mask, a regular one will remind you to not touch your mouth or nose while in public. Never touch your face unless you've just washed your hands. Always a good idea, even better during regular flu season and if a pandemic comes, absolutely imperative.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

70. Nice. Attack the messenger to discredit the message. Real nice.

[JanMichael]

79. Get over it.

The OP and I had a decent conversation; s/he changed their original post to include some of their thoughts I thought were important enough to be included. Did you miss that part?

[tavalon]

89. You want constructive advice

Okay. You didn't ask me but here it is. Watch the information about avian flu carefully so you know when to go to ground. Get a N-95 particulate mask for each of your family members. Make sure they know how to use them and don't go out in public without them when the flu hits. When the flu hits, stop going to work or wear the mask at work at all times. Take your children out of school and homeschool for the period of the epidemic. Never touch your face and wash your hands frequently. Eat healthily, take your vitamins and especially take extra vitamin C, take Echinacea and Goldenseal as soon as you hear that the flu is coming. Make sure you have enough food and water in your house to stay home as much as possible. Get Tamiflu if you want but it might not work or you might need much higher doses than usual for longer time periods. Research it and make your decision based on your research.

This could in fact be really serious. You need a plan. Panic isn't a plan so it isn't what you should do. These posts are meant to encourage people to stop blowing this off. Yeah, this administration and the media are fearmongers. That doesn't mean the possible pandemic from avian flu should be blown off just because the media is fearmongering. That's just, well, dumb.

[artemisia1]

140. Your right. Whoever posted the "hurricane about to Hit New Orleans" was

way out of line for scaring people with "that shit". After all, there was nothing we could do about it...

[iamjoy]

5. But What Can We Do?

Really, short of quarantining ourselves in some shack like some Ted Kaczynski or Ted Nugent or other right wing anti-government whack job, what are our options?

Most of us work outside the home, some have children going to school. So, if/when this happens, we are going to be exposed, doesn't seem like we can avoid it.

It may not be a bad idea to stock up on non-perishable groceries and other household items, because if this thing is as bad as they say it could disrupt delivery systems.

But other than that, I am worried about a pandemic but have decided since there is nothing I can do about it, I need to just live my life.

[JanMichael]

7. That's why I hate these damned posts...there isn't anything you can "do"

other than make sure you are as healthy as you can be, and wash your hands alot.

Panic, be scared, panic, be scared.

Jesus Christ, it's ridiculous. So much for the security of living in a super power country, eh?

[smoogatz]

10. Okay, let's all pretend everything's fine.

How is that going to help? Just curious.

[JanMichael]

12. This is Stephanie; I have been reading DU since day 1. There has not

been ONE freaking hour that I know of on this website where anyone has tried to pretend like everything is "fine."

Things haven't been "fine" for a long time. Like say, since the day someone took a clay tablet and decided to try to write something.

What I object to is a post that says "don't panic...but, you need to be afraid." Your answer about proprietary information among drug companies is great...that's something that needs to be addressed asap. I agree with that.

[smoogatz]

15. I never said you need to be afraid.

That's you talking, not me. I said my knowledgeable relatives are concerned. When the bug makes the H2H jump, then it's time to be afraid.

[tavalon]

101. I disagree with that one

Fear is not a plan. My reason for posting on these different threads is because there are concrete things we can each put into place as a plan. I know that this is really, really serious but fear won't help. It's hard not to go there but a solid plan will help, IMO.

I'm a healthcare professional. I've been watching the avian flu for about three years now. Until this year, I wasn't concerned enough to formulate a plan. I don't think it's coming this year but I'm no longer confident enough to go without a plan.

[malmapus]

143. Besides its not like our government is going to come up with a plan anyway

Our best hope is planning for ourselves it looks like on this one, getting as much info as possible (all that knowledge is power and what not).


EDIT: This is the first time I've posted to a recent "bird flu" thread. Mainly because I do feel that Bushco is seeing how "TERRA" isn't working anymore so they needed the next thing to throw into the American psyche.

But I do know that this strain of Avian Flu has been discussed on DU for a LONG time even before Bushco picked up on it. I'm one that likes to know what might be coming my way, I guess its the soldier in me still. But if there's a way I can prepare myself and my family for what may be around the corner, just down the road, shit even if its years away then I'm there.

[tavalon]

99. It was always an illusion anyway

We were just the last to know.

[smoogatz]

8. See my answer to the above post.

Big pharma's proprietary vaccine production system has got to go, in this case.

[nashbridges]

21. There cannot be an effective vaccine

Until the outbreak occurs. It's a chicken/egg thing. Companies that want to make a profit cannot do so until they have a sample to combat against.

And we'd best hope that SOMEONE wants to make a profit after the virus makes the jump to humans, otherwise we are fucked. The mortality rate for this virus is higher than the 1918 outbreak.

[smoogatz]

29. I don't think that's correct.

My understanding is that work on a vaccine is already underway.

[Desertrose]

37. How can you have a vaccine for something that doesn't (yet) exist?

If this thing hasn't mutated yet or hasn't even crossed over to humans yet, how exactly do you propose they MAKE this vaccine??

How long does it take to test said vaccine?? I think if people are depending on vaccines they are gonna be REAL disappointed...seriously.

And haven't the makers of tamiflu or whatever, refused to give the patent to other companies to make more of this flu preventative??

Something just smells pretty fishy here folks.

I'm sorry, but everything I've read on this makes me think it is bushco pumping it all out of proportion to allow quarantine & martial law, IMO thats a lot more scary.

[smoogatz]

44. My understanding is that enough is known about the genetics

of this strain of avian flu that work on a vaccine can proceed, which will speed up the process of producing a "final" vaccine once the flu bug "jumps." Apparently the process of making this vaccine differs from other vaccines, which use eggs as a medium--because bird flu kills chickens. I'm not a physician or a scientist, though, so my understanding is extremely limited.

[kestrel91316]

45. My understanding is that the strain of virus used on the vaccine

WHICH IS NOW IN THE TESTING PHASE is the one that in fact jumped p2p in Thailand(?) a while back. It is the best available choice for a vaccine strain - it's what they have to work with, and a close approximation to what they expect with a pandemic, so they are running with it. What the heck else would you have them do, sit on their hands and whine about the situation?

You do the best you can with the hand you're dealt. Everybody here should be thanking their lucky stars that they live in a country where epidemiologists and virologists and immunologists exist and work and can do this thing called vaccine production. It wasn't always this way, you know. And if the faith-based/pseudoscience crowd gets their way with our educational system, we will look back on this time someday and wonder how the hell we regressed so far, so fast.

[Mojorabbit]

62. What worries me is

"The third essential defense is an avian flu vaccine. In early August, the National Institutes of Health heralded successful test results involving a prototype H5N1 vaccine developed by Sanofi Pasteur.

In fact, as the eminent British journal Nature immediately pointed out, the trials were actually a great disappointment to researchers. Such large dosages of flu antigen were required to produce a successful immune response in volunteers that large-scale production would be unlikely.

"If the entire U.S. production system," wrote Nature, "which can produce 180 million seasonal flu vaccines, was devoted entirely to making pandemic vaccine at this concentration, it could make enough for 15 million people: barely 5 percent of the U.S. population."
From
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/10/16/INGFTF7EMR1.DTL

[Media_Lies_Daily]

72. There is a very good chance that the strain that jumped p2p....

...a while back will NOT be the strain that eventually jumps p2p very easily. At this point in time, H5N1 has been found in a wide variety of birds (domestic and wild), and a number of mammals, all with a very high death rate.

MY guess, from the extensive reading I've done on this subject, is that the strain that will jump easily fro p2p has not yet emerged. IMHO, any attempt to create a vaccine from any of the current H5N1 variants will be little better than creating sugar placebos. But, it certainly creates good PR for a company claiming to be working on a vaccine, doesn't it?

[tavalon]

106. I feel like I'm repeating myself but in case you don't read back

They've decided to culture the 1918 flu strain to make the vaccine. They're hoping it (and there is some solid science behind it) that it will be similar enough to convey immunity to the not yet mutated avian flu.

They're also putting it on an island and will only culture females so it can't breed.*

*Jurassic Park joke for the humor and specifically gallows humor impaired.

[kestrel91316]

114. I don't see how that would work at all - 1918 was not H5N1.

Do you have a source for this? I would be interested to read more. Maybe they know something I don't. I suspect it's a reporter mininterpreting somethin they heard.

[tavalon]

119. I read about it at work.

I'll try to find the information and get back to you.

[kestrel91316]

121. Thanks

[tavalon]

133. Here's the article

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_27302.html

[Mojorabbit]

128. it does not make sense to me either

From what I have read we have partial immunity already from the 1918 strain of the flu and for the new one we have none.

[tavalon]

104. Yes, but based on the 1918 flu strain

There's some hope that this one will mutate in a similar fashion and that the vaccine will be similar enough to convey protection.

[tavalon]

103. Maybe not correct

It's possible that the 1918 flu may be similar enough for a vaccine to be created from it. I nearly shit when I heard that they had decided to culture the 1918 flu strain from an eskimo woman who was frozen from that time. I felt like I had stepped into a bad Jurassic Park remake. OTOH, it could be the golden goose. I guess it's worth a try. I hope they don't fuck it up.

[tavalon]

98. Here's what we are going to do

There are currently three adults and one child in our family. If this happens this winter (I'm thinking it won't but I'm prepared), the two women will stay home (not sexist, one of us isn't working right now and I am a nurse and will NOT go down with that ship) the man will continue to go to work but will wear an N95 respirator mask whenever he is out and will wash his hands and take a quick shower when he gets home. The child will be pulled out of school. We will homeschool. If we need to leave the house for any reason (like, say, food) we'll wear the N95 respirator mask as mentioned and will follow the same plan when we get home.

If this happens next year or thereafter, we will gather at the house outside of Seattle and just all go to ground, no one will need to work outside the home. N95 masks for necessary trips otherwise staying on the compound.

Meanwhile, other than keeping our ears to the ground so we can be prepared for when it comes, we live our lives. Fearlessly, knowing we have a plan and that is the best we can do.

[0007]

17. "Bean me up Scottie"

Avian Flu for Profit

In response to SARS, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, Michael Fumento, published an economic thesis in Toronto related to the one I advance here. The "Super-bug or Super Scare," he wrote was published in Canada’s National Post. Canadians were warned to "quarantine themselves," wear masks, and in some cases stay home. The Ontario Health Minister declared a "health emergency," as the media dubbed the "mysterious killer" a "super-pneumonia.” Recoiling from the hype, Fumento asked and answered a few “real questions . . . How lethal, how transmissible, and how treatable is this strain?” The answers, he concluded, “leave no grounds for excitement, much less panic.” The same may be said for this new curse of avian flu.(1)

Lethal?

At this writing, the avian flu is said to have killed “about 65 people” in Southeast Asia during the past two years! Little to no data is available on these individuals who most commonly had immune-compromising medical conditions. Further, all deaths were in Asian countries with questionable health services.

Conversely, other forms of flu kill more than 40,000 North Americans annually, generally the immune-compromised elderly.

Transmissibile?

According to USA Today (October 9, 2005), “European health officials are working to contain the virus, which so far has not infected anyone in the region.” Although, allegedly “more than 140 million birds have died or been destroyed, . . . and financial losses to the poultry sector have topped $10 billion.” This propaganda actually admits, “the current virus, known as H5N1, has not yet mutated to the point at which it can easily spread from person to person.” In fact, it is likely to have never spread from person to person other than during laboratory handling!(5)

Treatability?

“The U.S. Senate has already approved a $3.9 billion package to buy vaccines and antiviral medications, and the Administration is also preparing a request for an additional $6 billion to $10 billion,” according to a current BusinessWeek report.( 6)

“Beam me up Scottie, there is no intelligent life on this planet.” This largely explains why the public puts up with this deadly deception. Even USA Today bemoans, “there is no human vaccine yet.” So how come the U.S. Senate is rushing to spend all these billions for an avian flu vaccine?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20051012&articleId=1071

[smoogatz]

19. Exactly the kind of crap I'm talking about.

The government is actually trying to get out in front of a potential crisis for a freaking change--is that a bad thing?

[Karmakaze]

27. Crap?

You report a "maybe" as a fact, and call that article crap?

The government is NOT getting in front of a potential crisis - it is poring money into things that will have NO EFFECT if "Bird Flu" WERE to mutate and become the disease they keep saying it is.

You can't make a vaccine for a disease that doesn't exist, and this mutated "Bird Flu" doesn't exist.

So what is the government doing? Giving handouts to corporations - as usual.

[kestrel91316]

47. Reconstruction of the 1918 bug has shown that VERY LITTLE mutation

was needed to make a deadly pandemic strain. So the current vaccine strain COULD very well be an extremely close match for the pandemic, when or if it happens.

At least scientists are doing the best they can with what they've got. If you think you can do a better job of it, I suggest you inform the CDC and maybe they will hire you as a special consultant.

[0007]

81. Smoogatz has a hard time knowing what's crap and what's real

indeed.

[kestrel91316]

46. Some folks just don't understand the thing about an ounce of prevention.

[0007]

53. I believe the government is putting out all kind of crap and trying

to scare the shit out of the nation. I guess you didn't read the link, eh?

[Vinnie From Indy]

22. Is there ever a time when "panicking" is helpful?

"Not time to panic, but"

When we do decide to "panic" how do you we suggest we do so? Should we run around and scream while pulling out our hair or should we just flop to the floor in a pile blubbering paralysis?

[smoogatz]

25. Either would be fine, I think.

We all have our personal styles. I prefer to take fistfuls of nembutal while lying in a hot bath.

[NNN0LHI]

56. Caught em didn't you? Oh yes, don't be TOO afraid. Bwaaaa n/t

[0007]

74. Like we did with Anthrax scare, or the Sars fiasco, and how

about the Y2K thingy, and then there's Ebola and West Nile Virus.

Don, please read what Leonard Horowitz has to say about this latest paranoia.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20051012&articleId=1071

[Mojorabbit]

75. Wow

"Why Asia?

How convenient that Asia is said to be the origin, as with SARS, of this latest plague when Chinese-Anglo-American relations are strained to say the least."

Don't most flus start in Asia? I think I have never read such a paranoid article.

[0007]

84. Dr. Leonard Howowitz doesn't write propagada articles,

Not sure what you're talking about. But if you did read the article you wouldn't have made such a remark.

Author Leonard G. Horowitz, D.M.D., M.A., M.P.H., is an internationally known authority in the overlapping fields of public health, behavioral science, emerging diseases, and bioterrorism. Dr. Horowitz is best known for his national bestselling book, Emerging Viruses: AIDS & Ebola - Nature, Accident or Intentional? (Tetrahedron Press, 1998; 1-888-508-4787) which recently resulted in the United States General Accounting Office investigating the man-made origin of AIDS theory. (See: http://www.healingcelebrations.com/gao.htm ) Dr. Horowitz's work in the field of vaccination risk awareness has prompted at least three Third World nations to change their vaccination policies. His stunning testimony before the United States Congress' Government Reform Committee, literally brought the hearing to a halt. (See: healingcelebrations.com) Dr. Horowitz questioned government health officials regarding a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) secreted report showing a definitive link between the mercury ingredient (i.e., Thimerosal), common to most vaccinations, and the skyrocketing rates of autism and behavioral disorders affecting our children and the future of our nation.

Dr. Horowitz's most recent book is DNA: "Pirates of the Sacred Spiral", a reference text on the electro-genetics of biology, disease therapy, and human spirituality. This work also details links between the anthrax mailings and human genome project heist, and leading intelligence agency, genetics industry, and pharmaceutical company officials.

For more information about Dr. Horowitz’s books, videos, CDs and DVDs link to www.healthyworlddistributing.com and www.tetrahedron.org, or by calling 1-888-508-4787. His official website is www.drlenhorowitz.com.

This article was provided courtesy of Dr. Leonard G. Horowitz and Tetrahedron Publishing Group. It’s copyright is relinquished for widespread distribution.

[Mojorabbit]

129. I did read it

and I stand by my opinion. I found several parts of the paper that made no sense. I am a retired critical care nurse. The snippet I posted above was just one of the things I found ridiculous. . Lines like "physician-assisted mass murder" and "Expensive hospitals and long-term care facilities are virtual concentration camps" are a big red flag to me.

There have been pandemics throughout history well before there were biolabs though I do not discount a lab created bug getting out and causing a serious problem.

[0007]

141. Most nurses question doctors on a regular basis, I suggest that

you re-read Dr. Howowitz and try and understand the context he was using when he used terms that are big red flags to you.

[tavalon]

108. That's funny

I've been trying to say that. But you said it better. You said it as well as Jon Stewart would. :)

[oblivious]

134. Yes, that line made it difficult for me to even open the thread till now.

It's hard to imagine something serious coming out of that.

[Karmakaze]

24. Bull.

Worry about HUMAN flu first - it kills 250,000 to 500,000 people PER YEAR according to the WHO website.

In other words, since "Bird Flu" hit the scene, 500,000 to 1,000,000 people world wide have died from NORMAL HUMAN FLU.

In that time "Bird Flu" has killed less then 100.

When Bird Flu comes even NEAR to being as deadly as NORMAL HUMAN FLU, then I wmight worry. For now, all I see is BILLIONS in contracts for pharmaceutical companies and epidemiologists and doctors and all sorts of health industy people for a disease that is less threatening than even Dengue Fever - a disease that has killed 9 to 10 times as many people in the last few months, as "Bird Flu" has killed in the last 2 YEARS.

Even SARS was more of a risk, and that was overblown hype too.

[smoogatz]

26. That would make sense if the current avian flu strain wasn't so close

to the 1918 flu. You might want to read up on that pandemic before you dismiss the danger of avian flu out of hand. That said, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

[Karmakaze]

28. So close my BUTT.

Our DNA is 95% Identical to Chimp DNA - Genetically we're "SO CLOSE" but there is a vast difference.

The fact is only by MUTATING can "Bird Flu" be as dangerous as NORMAL HUMAN FLU. And even THEN it may end up WEAKER - that's the thing about mutation, you can't be sure what will happen.

Of course, you can't be sure it will mutate either. So What YOU and the scaremongers are saying is: "IF Bird Flu mutates, and IF it remains as deadly, and IF it is resistant to common anti-virals, and IF it spreads easily, then MAYBE a pandemic might break out that MIGHT be as dangerous as 1918 Flu."

Thats a whole lote of IF's for so much "certainty".

[smoogatz]

32. And your expertise here is...?

You're an epidemiologist, I assume? A virologist? Given your certainty, you must at least have a medical background. Otherwise, you're just talking out of your ass.

[Karmakaze]

36. No expertise needed...

Im not the one saying something will happen. Im ALREADY RIGHT. Something has to CHANGE for me to become wrong, and YOU are the one claiming it will.

I say "Bird Flu" is not a threat. And it isn't. No doubt about it, "Bird Flu" right now is NOT a threat. MAYBE that will change, but I highly doubt it.

I can say this - billions are being spent to protect from a disease that doesnt even exist. Yep, thats right the disease you are talking about doesnt exist. No one is claiming otherwise, not epidemiologists, not virologists, not WHO, no one.

The disease they are all "warning" us about does not and may not EVER exist. So why should I be concerned when diseases that DO exist kill so many people each year, and all those epidemiologists, virologists and organisations are not warning us about those?

Here is a question for you - why is "Bird Flu" more likely to mutate into a deadlier version of Human Flu than Human Flu is? Why arent all these experts constantly warning us that Human Flu might mutate into "the next 1918"? Could it be becasue we are all immune to the fear of Human Flu? Familiarity breeding contempt?

What better way to scare up new funds than to pick on some rare never before talked about disease? First SARS, now "Bird Flu". Same shit, different day.

[smoogatz]

40. Okay...

You asked: "why is "Bird Flu" more likely to mutate into a deadlier version of Human Flu than Human Flu is? Why arent all these experts constantly warning us that Human Flu might mutate into "the next 1918"? Could it be becasue we are all immune to the fear of Human Flu? Familiarity breeding contempt?"

I'm not a virologist, but my understanding is that this strain of bird flu is unsettling because it's extremely virulent and extremely deadly--it passes quickly from one host to another, and it kills a high percentage of those infected; it also kills them within a few days. It's different from other "normal" flu strains for those reasons, and also because it infects cells deep in the lungs that normal flus don't infect--which makes it much harder to treat than common flus. My understanding of the mutation issue is this: a mutation such as the one you describe--a common flu suddenly becomeing a killer flu--is highly unusual and therefore unlikely. A mutation such as the one that the public health community is concerned about with avian flu--a flu that's only passed from animal to animal or animal to human "learning" how to jump from human to human--is very common; in fact it happens all the time. So, you have a very virulent, very deadly, fast-working and hard-to-treat bug that appears to be on track for a very common mutation. That's why it's a greater concern than common flus, as I understand it.

I should add that the 1918 Spanish flu was also an avian flu that "jumped" to humans (i.e., mutated to transmit from human to human). A CDC study just completed found that the current avian bug and the 1918 flu are strikingly similar.

[kestrel91316]

49. "No expertise needed"??? HAHAHAHAHAHAH

I am reminded of the old saying: "A little knowledge is a very dangerous thing".

Ability to parrot words and phrases in no way connotes comprehension.

[Mojorabbit]

59. This is why

http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com /
It is from a nature article apparently.

One other result in this short paper is of interest. The authors compared viral binding to both α-2,6 and α-2,3 sialyl glycopolymers by the H5N1 virus from the patient, an H5N1 bird flu virus isolated from a Mongolian duck in 2001, and a human flu virus. The α-2,6 sialyl glycopolymer is characteristic of viral receptor on human cells, while the α-2,3 sialyl glycopolymer is characteristic of bird viral receptors (receptors are chemicals on a cell's surface where the virus docks prior to entry and infection). The H5N1 viruses both bound to the avian receptor, but the Vietnamese virus also bound to some extent to the α-2,6 human receptor, while the H5N1 bird virus from 2001 did not. The human flu virus (A/Kawasaki/1/2001) bound strongly to α-2,6 (characteristic of human receptors) but only weakly to α-2,3 (bird receptor). This suggests that the Vietnamese H5N1 had evolved from its 2001 form to one better adapted to a human host.

This is not a good sign

[tavalon]

113. It isn't the only bad sign

If this doesn't mutate into a pandemic, then we as the human race can count ourselves really lucky. I've been watching this one gear up for the last three years.

[smartvoter]

34. self delete

[kestrel91316]

48. The difference is that regular flu kills mostly the elderly, frail,

chronically ill, malnourished, infants with other problems, etc. The Avian Flu so far hasn't bothered to discriminate, and if it is like 1918 it will kill primarily healthy young and middle aged persons at the height of their productive lives.

Consider the societal impact.

[NNN0LHI]

57. Both of my parents are elderly and frail

Do you think your life is more important than theirs is regardless of how old and frail they are?

Don

[tavalon]

115. I think what that person was saying is

that people who run the infrastructure (as your elderly parents did before) are going to be hit hard and so the structure of society will be damaged.

[kestrel91316]

117. Why would you imply I don't think your parents' lives are worth

what mine is?????????????????

I am specifically referring to the impact on society when people at the height of their productivity, whether financial or otherwise, are struck down disproportionally. We expect the frail and elderly to die. They do so with considerable regularity, I hear. But how often do you hear that your grandmother's young or middle-aged physician has been struck down in the prime of their life? How about your daughter's friend in high school? Or the guy who drives the trash truck? When working people die like flies, I guarantee it will affect all of us more than if the same number of deaths occurred in nursing home residents.

Simple fact of life. Don't take it personally.

[NNN0LHI]

131. How about the elderly people who work for an Outreach Program...

...that are feeding and clothing the poor five days a week like my parents are doing? Their Outreach Program which is made up mostly of elderly and frail people volunteering like my parents do to provide services to over 200 needy people every week? Do you think the services my parents help provide are important to the people in need?

You need to understand that all this countries elderly people are not in nursing homes. Many are providing services that no one else has the time for. Just because they don't get paid for their work doesn't mean someone isn't depending on them. And the ironic thing is most of the people they are assisting are young and in their prime of their lives.

Don

[kestrel91316]

151. Why are you continuing to imply that I personally attacked you

and/or your parents?? I don't know you. I don't know them. And I have no opinion of any of you.

I was discussing the impact to society of the loss of large numbers of people in the prime of their lives. I guess THEY don't matter to you, because they are not family?

Some of us care about more than just family.

[tavalon]

110. Don't worry

but do make a plan.

[smartvoter]

30. Yep.

I have known about and paid attention to the bird flu for years. The fact that dirtbags are willing to exploit it this year for their own agenda doesn't negate reality. The flu just needs to get inside someone also infected with a common, person-to-person flu and share data to make the leap -- a process that happens frequently.

It's amazing how many DUers are willing to ignore the science on this issue when we rail against the other side for ignoring science on a wide range of issues, such as global warming.

But if you point out that it's real, they accuse you of fear mongering -- I've seen it many times out here on this issue.

[smoogatz]

41. It's bizarre, I think.

The left has apparently decided it's okay to politicize science and find scientific consensus "a matter of opinion" when it's in conflict with your personal beliefs. It's not all that surprising in a community in which half the members are wearing their tinfoil hats pretty much full time--especially given Bushco's predictable failure to "get" the threat of avian flu, and Bush's belated, confused and frightening response.

[kestrel91316]

50. Thank you. Very well said.

It's amazing to me how people with no medical or science background whatsoever presume to tell us that scientists and experts in the field are just STUPID DOLTS who do not have any comprehension of the truth.

Yep. When I went to college it was eight straight years of a vacuum hose stuck to my ear sucking my brains out. Uh huh.

[tavalon]

116. Well said

and correct

[motocicleta]

31. May I suggest another approach?

Just heard some smart guy on Science Friday the other day - he suggests that during the 12 to 18 month time span this flu likely would be out in the world doing its damage, pharma companies at their best would maybe be able to help out .5 of 1% of people. Not very good odds. He did say, though, that the biggest complicating problem would be the normal delivery of vital goods and services, food, fuel, health services, etc, while the illness was devastating the populations trying to deliver them. He suggested the vision of '5000 wars' being fought - each community will largely be on its own. So doing community organizing now, with the energy being spent on getting each community set beforehand with extra food and supplies to try and remain self-sufficient, say during a time when food and fuel is scarce and we also get a bad winter storm.
Obviously, this flu may never happen, but it sounds like the experts think that if it does, we're not going to be able to rely on anyone other than ourselves to bail us out, and whether we live or die is going to be dependent not only on our own bodies, but also on our ability to deal with complicating factors.

[smoogatz]

33. I heard that, too.

And you makean excellent suggestion.

[motocicleta]

38. Thanks smoogatz

Basically it looks like we need to foster some of the interrelational skills our culture has been working so hard to destroy for the past, oh, say, 150 years. Civility is going to be necessary, and yelling at each other about this one is really not necessary. If the pharma companies can somehow outdo the scientific predictions, great, but I'm not relying on them. In my opinion, their track record the last few years isn't so grand.

[Raster]

42. good post. welcome to DU, motocicleta. Harley or Honda?

:hi:

[motocicleta]

55. Italian Harley

Ducati and Honda. You?
Thanks Raster

[Mojorabbit]

65. A diary on KOS

had wonderful advice on planning for emergencies
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/9/161748/9747

[mainer]

35. Thank you for this post. I agree entirely.

Avian flu is NOT Bushco propaganda. Anyone who's been paying attention for the last few years knows that the EU has been worried about this for some time, and they were the first to get in line to order Tamiflu. Bush took his eye off the ball, and focused instead on terrorism -- a threat that might kill a few thousand Americans at a time.

While avian flu could kill millions.

We're a medical family and for several years we've been reading bulletins from WHO, Harvard Public health, and other journals. The latest advice we're hearing, from our own public health colleagues, is that first responders (medical personnel, emergency workers) would probably be wise to purchase their own personal supplies of Tamiflu. That's how concerned they are.

I see so much mis-information on DU about this issue. That bird flu has only killed "immunocompromised hosts" or the weak and elderly. That this is a Pharma plot. That a flu vaccine will save us all in time, if only Pharma weren't so damn greedy.

Recently I was discussing this with a business colleague of mine and she said that recently she'd gone through old family albums and noticed that a number of her relatives had died at young ages, all in 1918. She hadn't thought to ask why until recently -- and found out they all died of the flu. But no one in the family had wanted to talk about it.

[motocicleta]

39. Smart guy on science friday suggested that Tamiflu is

also not a magic bullet, no matter what Bushco did about getting it. Idea was that you had to be taking it at the right time for it to matter, not just after getting ill, and since the flu should be around for 12-18 months, how would you know when to take it?
Does that sound right, or is Tamiflu better than smart guy thinks?

[Raster]

43. I've taken Tamiflu. It stops the reproduction cycle of the virus. You

HAVE to take it at the right time in the viral cycle when the virus is replicating madly. It's usually given as ten doses. One every 12 hours for five days. If you catch the cycle early enough, it will considerably shorten the life cycle and thus the severity of the viral infection.

True story: One year I got the flu shot, as usual, and then ended up getting the flu. That year the flu vaccine didn't cover the most common viruses. Just about the time I was over the flu, I went to the doctor and was diagnosed with another case of flu. I argued long and hard I couldn't have the flu again because (1) I had received the vaccine; and (2) had just gotten over the flu. My doctor explained how and why I could get the flu again and prescribed tamiflu. Five days later I was definitely on the up side and back to work on Monday.

[muriel_volestrangler]

51. It's thought to have some effect if you take it quickly

And the plans allow for Tamiflu to be given only to people who have had symptoms of the flu for less than 24 hours. There are medical grounds for this, as this is the period during which it is effective.

Ministers will also announce they have finalised a contract to supply a vaccine to essential workers that they hope would blunt the effects of the disease, although it would not provide complete protection.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article319992.ece

Though that 24 hours may be based on existing human flus, rather than with people who have caught bird flu - I'm not sure.

[Raster]

52. Tamiflu doesn't kill the virus. It interferes with its reproduction cycle

on edit: thus the necessity of taking early in the infection cycle.

[motocicleta]

54. Well that's some hope anyway

I still can't put too much faith in big pharma at this point, but that's better than I had thought.
Thanks

[mainer]

63. it's useful within first 48 hours of symptoms

And it's not 100% -- there is some indication that relenza may be necessary if Tamiflu resistance becomes more widespread.

The reason to have it? Because in case of a pandemic, normal transport lines will be disrupted, hospitals will be overwhelmed, ventilators all in use, and citizens may well be on their own taking care of their families. If your family member becomes ill, there's really nothing more you can offer him.

[Mojorabbit]

60. A great editorial today

Playing chicken with avian flu Government took years to rouse itself to the danger that a killer pandemic could be headed to our shores
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/10/16/INGFTF7EMR1.DTL

The good news is that God and Karl Rove have finally told President Bush to worry about avian flu. The bad news is that the White House's sudden willingness to spend billions on stockpiling antiviral medications and vaccines won't assure adequate supplies of either until 2007. By then, several million of us might already be dead.

At a news conference two weeks ago, the president expounded with his usual rambling ineloquence, "Wait a minute, this is an important subject. ... I am concerned about avian flu. I am concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world. I am -- I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean.

snip

Despite official registrations of alarm by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the HHS, the White House was seemingly too transfixed with the quagmire of its own creation in Iraq to pay serious attention to Vietnam's desperate pleas for scientific and economic assistance. Although individual CDC experts have played heroic roles in advising Vietnam public health authorities, the Bush administration -- lobbied by domestic poultry interests -- has refused to provide requisite aid to Vietnamese farmers or to make a decisive contribution to the faltering veterinary surveillance campaign of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

see link for more

[Kazak]

61. Hmmm...I've heard...

that this particular strand of flu virus essentially turns a person's immune system against them, and therefore those who are in particular danger are those with strong immune systems (as in, NOT the elderly and children, rather middle aged people with strong immune systems). Perhaps that was just hysteria though, or possibly coming from someone who is simply misinformed. :shrug:

[mainer]

66. You're correct. Young adults would die of this.

In 1918, vast numbers of young and healthy adults were stricken, and their robust immune systems worked against them by actually damaging their own pulmonary tissue.

[cynatnite]

64. I read Roche isn't planning on sharing a vaccine...

I don't think it's a bushco plot or anything like that. We should take this seriously, but I don't believe people should overreact.

There's entirely too much of 'the sky is falling' attitude which disturbs me given the fact humanity is faced with situations like this 24/7.

I mention the Roche because it seems like the big pharmas are more interested in profit than helping people. What you said is what's going to wind up being at the heart of the matter, IMO.

[gkhouston]

146. Roche has the patent for Tamiflu and is refusing to license a

generic form for it. (Tamiflu is an antiviral drug.) A company in India has announced that they are going to manufacture generic Tamiflu, anyway, although they won't have product until sometime in 2006.

[mainer]

67. remember the swine flu? there's a reason Ford was concerned.

Ford got a bad rap for trying to be in front of a crisis. As it turned out, swine flu didn't turn into a pandemic. But it well could have.

[mainer]

69. It will migrate next to Africa -- very worrisome indeed.

The avian flu outbreak in Turkey and Romania is following birds' migratory patterns. Next stop, for birds headed south, will be the African continent.

Africa, with its political chaos, lack of health care resources, lack of effective monitoring, and close daily human-animal contact. If we thought isolating bird flu in southeast Asia was difficult, what happens when H5N1 appears in Africa?

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

73. Bush and Co did take their eyes off of the ball

European countries have been aware of and planning for this for quite awhile and stockpiling Tamiflu while we did nothing. I wonder if this is another case of a politicization causing death, a la FEMA. If Europe was on to this early, why weren't we?

There is some evidence that this flu has already built a resistance to Tamiflu. For the person above who scoffed at the death count so far, it is worth noting that so far all of these cases have been bird to human transmission and I think there have been around 110 reported cases with deaths in the sixties. That is outrageously lethal. The pandemic starts when human to human transmission begins.
As others have pointed out, if this is anything like the Spanish flu, it is the immune system of the victim that ironically causes death.

I think the best hope is that if the flu does make the jump that it quickly mutates into a less virulent form naturally. And some of the best protection may be low tech - yes, we might all find ourselves wearing masks and carrying anti-bacterial hand wash gel around.

[NNN0LHI]

76. Are there any Tamiflu salesmen or Roche stockholders posting here?

Just curious?

Don

[0007]

80. It appears maybe two or three, LOL!!

[mainer]

82. An M.D. here, not a drug spokesman.

and I've already bought my family a supply of Tamiflu. That's how concerned I am. After consultation with public health colleagues, who are advising it, I felt I would be irresponsible toward my loved ones if I didn't.

Go ahead and ignore it. I won't.

[NNN0LHI]

83. You are an MD with no connections to the drug companies?

Who are those vultures in cheap suits with their sample bags in my doctors office waiting to see him when I am in there? Car salesmen?

I will wait for the vaccine thank you very much. Keep your Tamiflu.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5050172

Don

[mainer]

85. I no longer practice medicine. I have no connections to Pharma.

And I'm sure as hell glad that at least I know what I'm talking about.

[NNN0LHI]

86. You avoided the question "doc". A good doctor would never do that

Why did you stop practicing medicine by the way? Was it your idea to stop? Wanted to spend more time with the family perhaps?

Don

[mainer]

87. I left medicine to stay home with my kids.

And this is leading up to what? That those of us who actually know something about a subject have to defend ourselves with bona fides? Are you demanding our medical school credentials as well?

I don't really care whether you believe in Tamiflu or not. I am simply following the lead of what CDC uses for its own employees exposed to influenza. I only post here about this because I just can't believe the level of ignorance about avian flu. And if I'm so ignorant about it, then I guess all the EU countries who've invested millions to stockpile it are idiots as well.

Pharmaceutical salesmen are a fact of life in medical practices. Many doctors I know simply refuse to see them because they are pretty much a drain on your office time.

[NNN0LHI]

88. When someone claims to be an MD and begins giving medical advice...

...as you did here:



mainer (1000+ posts) Sun Oct-16-05 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #39

63. it's useful within first 48 hours of symptoms

And it's not 100% -- there is some indication that relenza may be necessary if Tamiflu resistance becomes more widespread.

The reason to have it? Because in case of a pandemic, normal transport lines will be disrupted, hospitals will be overwhelmed, ventilators all in use, and citizens may well be on their own taking care of their families. If your family member becomes ill, there's really nothing more you can offer him.




Then yes I feel it is my right to ask for some credentials. And if that offends you perhaps giving medical advice on an internet chat board is not your forte? I also think most licensed physicians would know better than to be giving medical advice on an internet chat board.

Don

[mainer]

92. You consider THAT medical advice?

Every piece of advice I've given is straight from public health sources. It's not exactly like telling you to take two tabs BID x 5 days.

[smartvoter]

95. I have no medical background and I have known everything you have posted

from watching and reading news accounts.

You are being harassed by a novice that can't tell north from south. He is way out of line and is beyond confrontational and is one of the many who are evidently anti-science when they don't like what it says.

I appreciate that you are trying to help people make sense of this confusing issue.

[NNN0LHI]

102. You consider this NOT medical advice?

>>>If your family member becomes ill, there's really nothing more you can offer him.<<<

So its either purchase and have available the 2 stinking drugs you are pushing or my family member will have no other options available to them if they become ill? Isn't that what you are saying?

Well friend you are either woefully uninformed or you are lying. I am not sure which one.

There are several experimental vaccines being tested for H5N1 avian flu right now. Why no mention of them in any of your posts? All we get from you is just buy these drugs or its curtains for all of you. And you claim to be an MD?

Don

[mainer]

109. So you're saying -- treat a sick family member with a vaccine?!!

If your family becomes ill with H5N1, a vaccine will certainly not cure them. A vaccine is only good prior to exposure. And until the virus has mutated into its pandemic form, it will take months to manufacture the most effective vaccine. In the meantime, what do you do? What options do you have?

Let's consider the scenario.

The 1918 flu killed most rapidly through the pulmonary system. Ventilatory support can keep patients alive, and in fact is how most Southeast Asian patients did survive -- with ventilatory support and antivirals. But there's already been an estimate that in a pandemic, U.S. hospitals will quickly run out of enough ventilators and that hospital beds will be full. In other words, you will have NO ventilatory support. If you have a secondary bacterial infection, yes, antibiotics will help.

But for the actual viral onslaught on your body, antivirals will be needed. And we are talking about a scenario in which the country is at a standstill, truckers are not delivering supplies of food or drugs, emergency responders are ill, and even power plants will occasionally black out.

Again, I'm extrapolating from 1918. Because it's the only model we have for such a catastrophe.

So the hospitals are full and taking no patients. And you are home with your kid who has just spiked a fever and is coughing in the midst of a national pandemic.

Umm... what is YOUR solution?

[NNN0LHI]

112. My solution is to stockpile 250 million doses of this vaccine ASAP

And if there ever is an outbreak give it to people BEFORE they get sick.

Don

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=31390&archive=true

Military taking steps to guard against avian flu

<snip>The Defense Department, which does not have to undergo the same Food and Drug Administration testing system, already has an experimental vaccine and has begun its own testing, according to Marianne Coates, a defense department health official.

She said Pentagon officials are working to eventually stockpile between 2 million and 20 million doses of the vaccine for military use. Winkenwerder said that would only be used in the event of an outbreak.

While unusual for humans to contract the avian flu, the virus seems to be spread through exposure to sick birds, bird feces, uncooked poultry and contaminated surfaces. The virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of chickens, ducks and geese across Asia and might have been discovered in birds in Turkey over the weekend.

DOD ordered combatant commands to develop emergency plans akin to those developed when Pacific Command faced the occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003.

[mainer]

120. We don't know if it even works.

TUESDAY, Oct. 11 (HealthDay News) — While initial testing of an avian flu vaccine shows promise and trials should be completed by the end of the year, questions remain about the vaccine's ability to protect large numbers of people, U.S. researchers say.



Among the potential problems: The vaccine dose needs to be much higher than that given for other types of flu, according to Dr. John Treanor, a professor of medicine and associate professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry....


The problems with a high-dose H5 vaccine are twofold:

First, since people have never been exposed to H5 viruses, a "primer" vaccination would have to be given, then a month later another dose would be required. Because of this two-dose regimen, immunity wouldn't take hold for about six weeks, giving the virus a bigger window to infect even immunized individuals, Treanor said.


Second, the higher dose would place a strain on manufacturers' ability to produce enough vaccine, he said.


It's also not known if the vaccine being tested now would protect against an H5 virus strain that might trigger a flu pandemic.



http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Healthology/story?id=1203161

[NNN0LHI]

124. Orville to Wilbur Wright: "We don't know if it even works"

Well lets never try to fly it then Orville because "We don't know if it even works". OK Wilbur lets go have another beer. And that was the end of that story...

Personally if there is another pandemic during my lifetime (I have lived through two pandemics already) and this is the only vaccine available I will take my chances with it and find out if it works.

And if we don't have another pandemic while we are waiting for one they can be working on an even more effective vaccine while this one is being manufactured and stockpiled.

Don

[tavalon]

125. What the good doctor was revealing there

is that the medical system will not be able to handle the coming epidemic. The hopitals will fill up, the doctors will have nothing left to give but good wishes and you will be taking care of your own.

Decide what you're going to do now. Later will be too late. Whether you choose to get tamiflu or not, choose now, not later. You won't have the choice as of about 3-4 weeks into the epidemic. That's me telling you, not the doctor.

[NNN0LHI]

126. As I said I will wait until the current vaccine becomes available

That sounds like a more viable option than stockpiling medications that I will more than likely never need and making some internet Tamiflu salesman rich.

I just think all the options should be on the table. It allows people to make clear and reasoned decsions rather than trying to make someone decide on something this important using only fear and ignorance as their guide.

Don

[mainer]

97. Tamiflu vs. Relenza

The Manila meeting report contains information on only a single case where Tamiflu-resistant virus was recovered from an H5N1 patient. That case, a 14-year old Vietnamese girl who fell ill in late February, is currently the only publicly acknowledged finding of a Tamiflu-resistant virus.

A detailed analysis of viral clones grown from a specimen taken from the Vietnamese girl was released Friday by the journal Nature.

DARN those news services! Giving medical advice without a license!

------------------

"There was some initial confusion attached to the publication, which a number of experts felt represented new evidence of resistance to the drug.

Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka, senior author on the Nature paper, had not been at either WHO meeting, nor had he read the report of the Manila meeting. He confirmed Saturday that the virus he and his collaborators studied bore the same identification number as the one reported on at the Manila meeting.

"It must be the same virus," he said.

The analysis Kawaoka and his co-authors produced showed that while the girl's virus was at least partially resistant to Tamiflu, it was fully susceptible to another neuraminidase inhibitor, zanamivir.

The authors suggested their findings point to the practicality of adding zanamivir -which is sold as Relenza by GlaxoSmithKline - to national pandemic stockpiles."

http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=bd866740-2f4f-42d0-a327-6f7bddbe3227

[tavalon]

123. That wasn't medical advice!

That's a riot!

[kath]

135. mainer, what did you have to do to get Tamiflu for your family ?

TIA, Kath (who also left medicine to stay home with kiddos)

You can PM me if you like.
<on edit - Sorry you're getting so harrassed here. Sheesh. And you were only trying to be helpful and give people a reality check as to what things will be like if it becomes a serious pandemic.>

[cynatnite]

96. You approve of getting medication for people who don't need it?

This is very troubling for me. I worked in a variety of clinics both civilian and military. None of the doctors I worked for would ever consider prescribing a medication for someone who does not need it. They consider it highly unethical.

IF this hits and becomes a pandemic as is the worst fears, there is nothing to say your or your family would get it. IF this happened, there would be a run on this medication and those who need it the worst may find themselves without because those who can afford it and have the ability to aquire it are hoarding it even though they may never even get it.

[mainer]

100. So... the EU is unethical for stockpiling it for their citizens?

The point is, Bushco has been completely irresponsible. He has not stockpiled enough for American citizens. At the moment Tamiflu is available, and stockpiling is advised for first responders.

But by your logic, we should all sit back and let Bush handle everything.

[cynatnite]

105. I still get amazed when so much is read out of my posts...

LOL

No doctor should prescribe medication to people who do not need it. It has been considered unethical before I worked in the medical field.

IF this happens and hits the US as bad as some believe, there will be a run on this medication. Those who need it the most will have to do without because people stocked it on their shelves when they didn't need it.

buscho is irresponsible as hell, but I consider the hoarding of medication for those who DO NOT NEED IT to be unethical and insensitive to the needs of the population as whole.

[capi888]

107. Question,

Is Tamiflu a prescription product?

[mainer]

111. Yes.

[capi888]

118. Thank You mainer.

Ounce of prevention and certainly appreciate reading this information. I think we need to be aware of the possiblility of this Flu. You have given us a heads up! I had the Flu about 4 years ago, and was really sick. I recovered without medical assistance, however, have lost my taste buds from the fever. Did the ol fashion , Mother taught remedy's which worked. Chicken soup, rest, green tea! But this strain is different. Thanks.

[tavalon]

122. I'm also in healthcare

A nurse not a doctor. I've been getting some of those same bulletins you've mentioned and I've been watching this for about three years. Last year I considered making a plan. This year, the plan is in place. I hope we don't have to use it until next year or even later but I'm not that confident.

I decided against the Tamiflu because of the logistics problems around it. But we have the respirator masks. We haven't had the fit lessons yet. It's time.

[Prajna Sword]

77. A few facts

This is serious. I am a researcher on the faculty at a medical school. A pandemic is VERY possible. I have been analyzing these issues for some time. It is not some Bush propaganda hoax. It is real.

Epidemiological models suggest that a human-to-human transmission form of the virus can infect half the European population within a period of 3-10 weeks! This does not mean that everyone infected will die. The case fatality rate will depend on a number of unknown factors.

The EU, which has a larger population than the US has stockpiles of antivirals like oseltamir (i.e., Tamiflu) to cover 20-40% of the population. The US has enough stockpiles for 2% of the population.

There is no vaccine for H5N1 right now, and in the early phase of a pandemic, people will need to use antivirals. However, the mechanism of action of antivirals facilitates the evolution of oseltamivir -resistant influenza strains. It is possible that even if we find a vaccine, a mutant variety might arise as a result of the use of antivirals.

What is really disturbing is the potential for marshall law. In the event of a pandemic, just sneezing could be grounds to be sent to a quarantine facility. You might not be infected, but you might get infected at the facility! Hospitals could literally become death traps. Gatherings of people would be banned. You couldn't go to the movies or restaurants. The U.S. healthcare system would collapse!

[confludemocrat]

130. Only 140 or so human cases so far, so what the hell are you talking about?

The virus has been present in SE Asia and China, where billions live, for more than a year now. So why didn't it run wild on humans there? The mutations talked about here would be more likely to cause loss of virulence rather than heightened virulence, right? Genetic recombination between a highly contagious human form of a flu virus and the avian flu is what to worry about. But how likely is that? Where are they going to get a chance to recombine? A doubly-infected human maybe. or pig but not chickens since we are killing them. Nobody noticed, correction, nobody gave a flying fuck until it knocked on the door of the rich/white countries now we're all going crazy. Nobody I know is "pretending" that this is a plot and shame on the original poster for that smear, they are upset that the threat is being blown out of all proportion and that is how Bush works--so cool it with the overheated rhetoric and distortions. And stop overhyping as likely that which is merely possible.

[Lisa0825]

142. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Javaman]

132. Call me crazy, And I maybe wrong, but I have read a few things about the

1918 flu outbreak and the one thing that I keep finding is, they didn't have a vaccine.

Let me say that again, they didn't have a vaccine.

So, let's fast forward to today. We have the CDC, the WHO and the HHS. We have people who devote their entire lives to figuring out the flu and it's causes.

Just like every flu season, there are bad ones and there are mild ones.

This one will be nothing more than MAYBE a bad one. People will die, as always. People will get sick, as always.

Just wash your hands, don't share utensils and keep away from people who have it.

oy, folks, oy.

If you want to panic, knock yourself out, me, I'll save the running around in circles with my arms flailing when they report a case of small pox. Now that is nasty shit. That would scare the living crap out of me.

[cynatnite]

136. Small pox is the one we should be afraid of...

There's so much that no one knows about this that I find it hard to get worked up over the terra-like hype the corporate media keeps pushing.

It's there, be concerned, keep an eye on it, and keep a level head. That's the best we can do with anything that can do some damage.

One case of small pox is all it takes. That's when people should really be afraid.

Good post.

[FM Arouet666]

139. I have seen you post this business about small pox in several threads

Explain to me why you hold this opinion?

http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/vaccination/facts.asp

Small pox has an effective vaccine. If we should see cases of small pox reoccurring we have a means to prevent a pandemic.

This is not the case with the avian flu. There is no vaccine, and no treatment, save for Tamiflu. However, this will be in short supply in the face of a pandemic and there are reports of resistance with the H5N1 virus.

When the virus mutates the U.S. must be ready, modern medicine will not be able to cope........

[cynatnite]

145. We don't have the means to prevent a pandemic of small pox...

It's a virulent disease that's very difficult to contain. It's a very real killer and there are stockpiles of the disease all over the world.

The ones here in the US were ordered destoyed several years ago and more than once, but it never happened. There are microbiologists who wish to retain it for scientific research.

That's not counting the military's possession since it's considered for use in biological attacks.

Just a few years ago in New Mexico scabs were discovered inside an envelope in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Fortunately, it didn't have a chance to infect anyone. Viruses can last for many years and while small pox may be considered eradicated by some, others believe it's a disease waiting for a comeback. Hard to predict. Most believe that it would return by way of biological attack. This isn't a stretch for me to believe because of the still unsolved anthrax attacks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox

Duration of protection: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that vaccination protects against smallpox for less than five years after primary vaccination and that substantial but waning immunity can persist for ten years or longer. Protection may last longer when revaccination is performed.

http://www.who.int/vaccines/en/smallpox.shtml

[Javaman]

147. Read, "Demon in the freezer", if you want a good update on the

small pox situation.

I'll put it this way, if there ever was another outbreak, I would wait till the very last minute to get a small pox vaccine. Why? Because, it's even stated by the WHO, that any small pox vaccine would probably not do much good after 72 hours (maximum level of efficiency). Primarily because, any small pox that is released on the general pop will have been genetically modified and any vaccine that is produced to combat it, will have minimal effectiveness. Nice thought huh?

Small pox is nasty ass stuff. It's been termed the most horrible disease in the world.

[Bridget Burke]

144. There's no real vaccine for Avian Flu yet.

The virus needs further mutation before it can be transmitted human to human. They're testing vaccines for the current virus; there's no guarantee they would work against the trulyl dangerous Avian flu.

This year, the "regular" flu virus may be short supply again. No matter what the scientists & health care profesionals do, big corporations & Bush's pals have the power. The current plan: Send in the military!

I'm not panicking, either. By the way--the virus is airborne. That is, you can catch it without "touching" anything. And flu victims are infectious before symptoms appear.

[Javaman]

148. Actually, each year the flu vaccine that comes out...

it is only based upon the best guess as to which strain will be the big one. There is always more than on strain of flu out there. Actually several in any given year.

Read, "FLU", it's a history of influenza in the world. Starting with the 1918 Spanish flu through today.

Sometimes the pick they right one, sometimes they don't.

Frankly, I'm not the least bit worried. I think all of this is more hype promoted by the admin* to derail their very obvious problems.

[BlueWolf]

137. Time to get out the plastic sheeting and duct tape

I think we're all forgetting that in the event of a bio emergency such as bird flu, all we need to do to protect ourselves is to duct tape sheets of plastic over our doors and windows. See www.ready.gov for more information.

[FM Arouet666]

138. Thank you, and your 100% percent correct.

I have been arguing ad nauseum in treads which suggest that the bird flu is a hoax. Your information is correct, and your conclusion is the most important point.

We must put pressure on the administration and the pharmaceuticals to produce this vaccine in a timely fashion. I fear BuchCo will allow big pharma to hold exclusive rights for the vaccine and maximize profits at the expense of lives.

Keep up the good work. I am a physician and I am appalled at the lack of interest in finding the facts about this very serious health issue.

[rustydad]

150. Vitamins??

http://www.cqs.com/influenza.doc

Prepare for Avian Influenza!
by Jonathan Campbell, Health Consultant
<http://www.cqs.com/influenza.htm>
(Updated 10/12/2005)

Various U.S. and U.N. agencies and the Council on Foreign Relations are
spreading the word that the Avian Influenza, if it breaks out this fall
or winter, could be as severe as the worldwide Spanish Influenza
epidemic of 1918, and they are predicting hundreds of millions of
deaths worldwide.

This influenza, currently isolated in China, is a hemorrhagic illness.
It kills half of its victims by rapidly depleting ascorbate (vitamin C)
stores in the body, inducing scurvy and collapse of the arterial blood
supply, causing internal hemorrhaging of the lungs and sinus cavities.

Most people today have barely enough vitamin C in their bodies
(typically 60 mg per day) to prevent scurvy under normal living
conditions, and are not prepared for this kind of illness. (Vitamin C
deficiency is the root cause of many infant and childhood deaths
worldwide, and it is the root cause of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome -
SIDS.)

<snip>