All 7 major weather models predict Tropical Storm Wilma will hit Florida

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid=6171389&cKey=1129638932000

Wilma veering towards Florida

NEW YORK (Reuters) - All seven major weather models predict Tropical Storm Wilma, expected to strengthen into an intense hurricane later Tuesday, will strike Florida's Gulf Coast late this week.

The models show the storm moving northwest to between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, where it will turn northeast towards the south-central Gulf Coast of Florida.

Wilma will probably spare U.S. oil and natural gas rigs and refineries on the Gulf of Mexico which had been badly battered by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in late August and September.

In an advisory at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said the storm's maximum sustained winds were nearly 70 miles per hour with higher gusts.

[Nikki Stone 1]

1. We need a giant cooling system for the Gulf

That's me dreaming again....

[Jacobin]

32. We already have one

It's called: hurricanes.

[KG]

2. AAAAAHHHHHhhhhhhhh.......

it's headed my way!

[Divernan]

4. Good luck, KG; I have relatives in Ft. Myers.

Hope you all stay safe.

[William769]

11. Fort myers here myself.

But I have a plan. I've crossed my fingers.

[soup]

13. Not only is your plan more sensible than mine,

it takes much less energy and is just as likely to stop the storm.

I was thinking we Floridians should all join together and protest outside the weather centers until they change their forecasts. Yah, that'll work.

[Lisa]

15. faith-based emergency preparedness!

Hey, try calling the White House. You might end up the head of a new agency!

[ixion]

6. Yeah, me too...

Water has cooled down considerably though... we'll see how it goes.

:popcorn:

[banana republican]

3. God's Gift to the Red States....

[LuCifer]

18. ARG! WE ARE NOT A RED STATE!!!!!!

Butt thanks to Jeb BUSHitler and KKKunterine HairAss, I guess WE ARE...gee THANKS...

Lu

[banana republican]

38. God Bless you...n/t

[SteppingRazor]

5. Those rat bastard hurricanes won't get this Floridian! Or maybe so.

Time to board the windows again. The cabin fever sets in after a couple of days, and combined with the paranoia induced by all the weed -- because what else do you have to do other than sit and smoke? -- it can be a real bear. Terrible, terrible. The good times have stopped rolling.

Wilma seems to be heading just north of us here on the southeast coast, and it will probably be weakened by passing over the state before it gets to us, but it could still require that sort of bear-in-winter, hunker-down mentality. I can't do it anymore. Maybe I should just step outside and let the storm take me. That seems the wisest course, at this point. Go out in a blaze of glory.

I can only hope that it weakens heavily after hitting the West Coast. As for you poor bastards in places like Fort Myers and Naples, take it like men!
OK!

[mithnanthy]

7. I'm in Ft. Myers...

..and am keeping my eye on this one. We're still paying for repairs from Hurricane Charley, last year. Plus, my husband was fired for evacuating for Ivan, after 13 years employment at a Beach Bar, which was still being renovated from Charley's damage. UGH!

[SheilaT]

10. Your husband was fired

for evacuating for Ivan -- that would be funny if it weren't so sad. I don't suppose there's any chance he could sue to get his job back?

I'd love to see the Bar's employee manual. There's probably a clause which says employees are expected to show up for work regardless of weather or evacuation orders. I hope he has found other, better employment.

[mithnanthy]

12. Thanks SheilaT...

Yes, it is illegal and we're independant contractors, so many rules for regular employees don't apply to us. This was an employer you don't want to mess with,anyway. My husband is an entertainer and is finding work...but unfortunately some are establishments on the water. Well, we and our 4 cats are going to bunker down because the way it looks, nowhere in Florida can be counted out as a possible hit.

[SheilaT]

36. Ahhh, an independent contractor.

Alas, unless you had a good signed contract I suspect there's not much you can do. Presumably you've sought legal advice and are proceeding from there, but it sounds unfortunately as if there's nothing you can do.

I'm quite sorry to hear this. On the other hand, perhaps if this was an evil employer, you'll eventually be better off. I know that's probably not much consolation at this point.

What makes hurricanes so terrible is that they can cover such a wide swath, and while there's always a certain amount of warning, it's never completely certain until it actually hits. I live in tornado country myself (Kansas) and while tornadoes can be devastating, they're short lived and simply don't do such wide-spread damage.

Good luck to all.

[HereSince1628]

8. But it's still awfully early to know just where...

If this hurricane season has taught me anything it's that landfall can't be predicted accurately until it's too late.

[raccoon]

9. God is P.O. at Jeb Bush.

Once Floridians kick him out of office, hurricanes won't come that way any more. Just like Jonah in the Bible. LOL.

[Baclava]

14. Latest steering currents

...or the world as a lava lamp.

[flyarm]

16. i have home on clearwater beach..any word about the st pete/

clearwater beach areas???

does anyone know?? its my winter home..i have not heard yet where its supposed to hit..
does anyone here live in fla and know if warnings have been issued??

i was just there but just returned to nj to my summer home..

to all my fla neighbors..stay safe...

fly

[Baclava]

17. Still too early for predicting landfall...

The cone, the cone, the cone is wide...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5_sm2+gif/145344W_sm.gif

[karlrschneider]

19. I'm inclined to think it will be in the northern 10% of that track cone.

Between Tampa and Sarasota is my estimate.

[Baclava]

21. Once it turns, it will take off like a bat out of hell...

At least - that's what the models predict.
Supposed to pick up lots of speed once it turns...to like 25mph.
A lot of people not paying attention could be surprised by this one.

[redsoxliberal]

23. the main question is... will it then phase with that mother of all troughs

coming through the great lakes?


If it does, the northeast will experience a strong hurricane as well... and the models are trending in that direction.
:\

[karlrschneider]

28. I'm looking at that strong hi pressure ridge in the western gulf...

a lot depends on how fast it drifts northeast. I have a feeling it will move a little quicker than the conventional wisdom is predicting and if it does, it will nudge Wilma more to the north. But we'll see in a few days. ;-)

[Jacobin]

33. Thanks Karl

You were RIGHT ON with the last two, days before they hit and you were 150 miles closer to correct than NOAA.

Hat's off to ya pal.

I'm bookmarking this.

[karlrschneider]

34. Hey, what're friends for?

:D
:toast:

[stop the bleeding]

20. Nothing concrete yet, but people from here around are keeping an

eye on it.:hide:

[redsoxliberal]

22. which do they classify as the major ones?

and are they referring only to globals?

[Baclava]

24. Crayon colors

[Catherine Vincent]

25. One of them predict it to head toward LA, they're way off.

[redsoxliberal]

27. the extrapolation... ie continuing its current motion

[redsoxliberal]

26. I would have to be so unbelievably high to refer to those as the "major"

models lol.

GFDL and UKMET deserve to be on that list for tropics... and probably one of the BAM suite (depending on the strength...) but what about the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS (okay... not a very good model, but still better than many of those,) and maybe the FSU superensemble... it's an embarassment to my future profession that that is what the media is claiming are the "major models."

[Baclava]

29. Believe what you want

WTNT44 KNHC 182042
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A
DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS
IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE
WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS
EXPECTED. ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS
FOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

[redsoxliberal]

30. I think it will hit Florida as well... I believe that very much

and I believe that that model representation is, for once, going to be quite accurate. BUT! I would never, NEVER refer to them as the "major models."

I strongly agree with the NHC forecast to landfall in FLA.

It gets dicey afterwards... does it phase with the oncoming trough or not?

There's a trend with the models to say that it may very well phase, in which case the northeast could be severely impacted as well... not just rain, by a MAJOR hurricane.

Still time... but there may be more than one landfall here.

Look up hurricane Hazel and 1938 hurricane for further info on the type of scenario (after FL landfall) that I am referring to.

[Baclava]

31. "AccuWeather" is ramping up.....

Hurricane Wilma continues to explosively strengthen over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The storm will reach Category 3 strength early Wednesday and should become a Category 4 hurricane by the end of Wednesday.

It is not out of the question that Wilma reaches Category 5 strength some time Wednesday or Thursday, which would set a new record for the most Category 5 hurricanes in a single year. The AccuWeather.com forecasted track of Wilma shows the storm becoming a serious threat to Florida this weekend. Deviations in the path are still possible, but currently we feel southern and central Florida will experience the full fury of the storm.

When the storm makes landfall this weekend, the west coast of Florida somewhere between Tampa and the Keys could be pounded by winds over 100 mph and a destructive storm surge. Torrential rain brought by the storm will be widespread across a large portion of the state.

Story by AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologists John Kocet and Ray Martin.

[redsoxliberal]

35. I hate accuweathre generally... but I see nothing wrong with this forecast

except I am generally dubious that it will hit cat 5... though it's certainly not out of the question.

[Baclava]

37. Strength forecasting is iffy at best.

Calling for a Cat 4/5 this far out is only good for ratings.