2006 Election Results (prediction)

[the other one]

Despite pre-election polls showing big wins for Democratic candidates, Republicans will manage to win ALL incumbant seats and add 20 seats in the house and 5 in the Senate. The conventional analysis will attribute the gop win to three factors:

1) innacurate (and liberally slanted) polling
2) a large turnout by the religious right
3) a feeling among the electorate that despite republican flaws, voters are just not ready to trust democrats to govern.

Please feel free to plame my cynicism.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

1. If all votes really counted Democrats would sweep

And yes, the media would spin it that way. Problem is people are waking up to the republican agenda.

I wonder if there were a Democrat sign in every yard, how they would justify the bogus election results?

Speaking of which, I have always had suspicions of why the Kerry campaign would not make more signs available?

[Kookaburra]

2. The likelier factor:

4) Diebold

[the other one]

3. For some reason that won't be mentioned.

[Botany]

4. Good test

Watch Issues 2 - 5 in Ohio this Nov. to clean up the vote

The Repugs are now spending $ to stop 'em. Overwhelming
public and newspaper support for the issues ..... let us see
what happens.

[mtnester]

15. Issues 2-5 in Ohio are a good start, however

they do NOTHING to clean up electronic voting.

Until it is verified balloting, Ohio stays under the red cloud

[dusty64]

5. I think the powers that be

along with their "voting" machine allies will realize that a few token rethugs will have to be thrown under the bus in order to maintain the illusion of democracy. 1 or 2 Senators like santorum will be sacrificed, a Governor or two like NY ( but doubtfully CA, gropeinator will eke out a "win"). A handful of particularly corrupt House members will be given the boot, but control of both houses will not be ended just enough to keep the People at bay and make them continue to believe that we still have elections in America. Sadly this is my prediction, it didn't have to be this way if our so called "opposition" had addressed this critical problem but they apparently can't be bothered.

[DainBramaged]

6. I believe in polls, yes I do, and my gut too

And butterflies and puppy dogs too. But every time I read a poll about this subject, I realize that we will own 2006, and all we need is the Senate or the House to fuck up the * agenda, that's all. I'm betting the Senate.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

"In your opinion, do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"

-----------------Republicans Democrats Neither (vol.) Unsure
10/12-16/05---------- 30-------- 38------ 22-------- 9

[Prodemsouth]

7. If Republians do make gains they will not be as big as you

suggest. At this time, Democrats are likely to pick up seats according to all political reports. All of them say to exect gains for Democrats just not taking contol of either Chamber. You are right about a trust issue among voters. Two main reasons: Lack of a national message. National security is another issue. Democrats need to tell them that we take protection of the country very seriously. I also believe these machines need a serious examation. If any Dem is leading or close in a state that has voting machines. They should yell about Diebold.

[greekspeak]

8. With the political climate the way it is, it is time for dems to use some

political capital. They have it; they constantly tell us they do, and they are saving it for a rainy day. Its pouring outside; a deluge. If they want the house and/or senate back, or at least a lot more power in either or both chamber, they are going to have to work for it. They are going to have to stop their rightward movement. They are going to have to bitch to anyone and everyone who will listen about these damned machines. They are going to have to yell back at the MSM. They are going to have to put the pukes on the grill, cook them up, and serve them hot. This sitting in Washington just waiting for the pukes to implode is not going to work. They are going to have to be PROACTIVE. They are going to have to speak up. Even if the pukes do implode, someone has to be there to fill the power vacuum. The MSM is slamming the dems for having no plan, even as it lets forth rivulets from the bulging dam that is the puke's smoke screen. They need a message, a strong one, and fair voting MUST be at the center.

[SheilaT]

9. You are absolutely correct.

I've been trying to get people to pay attention to exactly this probably scenario for quite a while now.

For about 18 months before the 2004 election, I kept on saying that predictions of a Democratic win, whoever the nominee would be, depended on a free, fair, and honest election, and I didn't for one minute believe that would occur.

Kerry, in effect, was nothing special in how he lost the election. Yes, his campaigning style and specific blunders were his, and I won't belabor the point to say how Dean, or Kucinich, or Clark, or any other potential nominee would have been attacked or what mistakes he and his campaign might have made. Everyone has vulnerabilities. The Bush cabal is exceptionally good at exploiting them, and the Democrats do not do a good job of either fighting back or exploiting Republican flaws. The mainstream media is no help whatsoever in all of this.

Your first two factors are the most important in how they will get away with stealing the election.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. I disagree. The Dems will pick up a lot of seats.

And, I'm not a cheerleader or a yellow-dog. I'll be voting Green in '06.

That being said, I believe that BushCorp has pushed corruption to unbearable limits. The American people are awakening to the fact that the Republican Party is dedicated to enriching it's friends, pushing a rather frightening rightwing religious agenda, has lost another war and. that waving the flag and shipping the troops out has consequences.

The mood has, at last, changed in the country. Even a few Democrats are starting to act like they belong to an opposition party in response to that mood change.

My prediction is that the Dems will pick up seats in both the house and senate. The bad news is that that won't change much of anything.

The interesting bit of political nonsense will be in 2008 as the Repugs try to adjust to the leftward shift of the people and try to nominate a "moderate". And, the Democratic bosses try to prevent the party from moving to the left.

[SheilaT]

11. The question I have for you is

what makes you think there will be a free, fair, and honest election in 06?

After the election was stolen in 2000, I kept on pointing out that our current government had come to power in a coup, and that such people do not give up power readily, least of all in an election. It was so clear to me that they'd steal the election again in 2004, and of course certain results in 2002 were highly suspicious, and never really got much coverage.

They simply did it somewhat more smoothly in 2004. By now, many people honestly believe that exit polls are highly unreliable, and both the mainstream media and the polling outfits have allowed that lie to be perpetuated. Which means no matter what the last minute polling shows on November 6, 2006, the day before the election, no matter what the exit polls say in the morning of election day itself, they'll adjust just enough electronic voting machines to take all the seats they want.

You certainly are right that even if the Dems pick up seats in both the House and Senate it won't change much of anything. The current Democratic party is terrible, and sometimes I'm ashamed to call myself a Democrat.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

13. When did we ever have "free, fair, honest" elections.

Throughout our history elections have been rigged, stolen, etc. I don't buy the 2004 "electronic" rigging scenario. If there is so much proof of it, as the believers say, why no prosecutions? I've asked that question before, and all I've gotten in reply was some vast conspiracy theory that would require thousands of people from both parties to be collaborators in a massive cover-up.

I agree that our electoral system is corrupt, but not because of sneaky IT types adjusting voting machines. It's corrupt because it's controlled by the money pumped into it by corporate/wealthy interests that buy the political process, and the politicians who sell out for campaign money - if not outright bribes.

[SheilaT]

14. Interesting.

Do I understand you to say that the final vote count last year was accurate, and that a light majority of people in this country actually voted for George W. Bush? Keep in mind, that immediately before the election his approval rating was actually slightly below 50% by most polls. And the exit polling clearly showed that he lost.

The reason there were no prosecutions is because that those who should have done the prosecuting had a vested interest in not doing so, that is, they themselves are Republicans and benefited from the stolen elections.

I really do hope you, and other people I know who think we'll win big next year are right. But ask yourself, why would those who came to power in a coup give up that power by means of an honest election?

[WI_DEM]

12. Sorry, I see a big repudiation of the GOP in '06--why?

1) Continued High Gas prices
2) An economic slowdown/recession
3) Ethical problems within the GOP
4) The continued War in Iraq
5) The GOP base depressed; the Dem base rejuvinated
6) Better recruiting of candidates by the Dems
7) With GOP problems, their fundraising will falter, Dems will soar.

I think there is a very good chance that Dems can win back both the House and Senate. It could be a repudiation for the GOP that is akin to what the Dems had in '94 when we lost the house and senate.

[SheilaT]

16. I'm going to save this.

Between the first and the last posts we have a very succinct summation of two possible ways the 2006 election could turn out.

And I'm saving, not so I can go back and rub someone's face in being wrong, but just to compate how we felt and what we predicted to the actual outcome.