Was 2004 presidential election stolen? Bucks County Courier Times

[helderheid]

Was 2004 presidential election stolen?

Bucks County Courier Times

Sen. John Kerry won Bucks County by two points and took Pennsylvania by three, but lost the national race to George W. Bush.

Like me, you probably thought this was old news and that Election '04 was settled.

Not Stephen Freeman, a visiting professor at the University of Pennsylvania, whose soon-to-be-published book will make a case that the Bush/Kerry election was riddled with "corrupted counts" that deserve high scrutiny, perhaps a recount.

Freeman stops short of saying Bush stole the race, but he comes close. His case is this. On the afternoon of Election Day, exit polling - which Freeman said is quite accurate - showed Kerry was winning with 51 percent of the vote, to Bush's 49 percent.

When the polls closed, however, the numbers reversed. Bush won.

The reversal is highly improbable, Freeman claims. He wants to review national exit polling data.

<snip>
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/219-10202005-557661.html

[texpatriot2004]

1. Wow. Great find in a local newspaper. Go Freeman. Freeman

recently debated Mitofsky and Freeman WON.

[helderheid]

3. ooooh I hadn't heard --- link??

Yea!!

[texpatriot2004]

8. It was last Friday. I read about it in our Election Forum. I think

there is some thread there with slides now. The people who watched the debate voted and Freeman won 51-48.

[helderheid]

9. ah, but was the vote rigged? hehehehe j/k

[helderheid]

10. found the link! Thanks! :)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=397502&mesg_id=397502

[The Doctor.]

20. He who has the most facts

and the best command of logic wins.

He who has something to hide loses.

I love debate.

[converted_democrat]

2. Great find!! Thank you for sharing!! k&r....n/t

[Broken_Hero]

42. yes,

a fantastic find....:) i thought it was dubious when the exit polls showed GWB losing, and then all of a sudden...he is in the lead...very suspcious to me...

[reprehensor]

4. Hell, yes.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4369575&mesg_id=4369575

[FreedomAngel82]

5. Wow

I hope he's successful. *crosses fingers*

[helderheid]

6. thank you - GREAT post everyone should read!

[helderheid]

7. another post that needs to be seen

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5111415

[meganmonkey]

11. K & R

It's good to see this stuff still getting out there :)

[tex-wyo-dem]

12. Great find!

I hope one day that the outrageous theft that was the 2004 (and 2000) elections will one day be understood and appreciated by the American public. We just have to keep yelling into the bullhorn.

One of my hopes (although I'm not holding my breath) is that when the neocon/repub cabal crashes down from the weight of the CIA leak scandal that election theft whistle blowers will begin to emerge *crossing fingers*

[The Doctor.]

18. I was thinking the same thing...

The machines aren't quite so prolific to preserve Republican majorities in the House in the face of national disgust.

Should the Dems gain control, Bush will be impeached. Republicans will have to vote the will of their constituencies because Democrats will do away with the corrupt machines and Republicans will have to play by the rules again.

"{The election?}... it's over, we won. It's all over but the counting, and we'll take care of the counting." Rep. Peter King-R 2003

-They will no longer feel so aloof.

[helderheid]

21. hope you're right!!

[IndyOp]

13. Smiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiile -- This is HUGH!!!!!!111!!11!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[helderheid]

15. LMAO!!

[ourbluenation]

14. Read the whole article - the turd basically says freeman has sour grapes

is anyone else seeing this?

[peekaloo]

16. Yes.

He (the author) seems to be proud of his lack of mathematical skills. Uses that as a comedy prop to discredit.

:eyes:

[helderheid]

19. Since I wasn't smart enough to figure this out and was part of the problem

in not reporting it at the time, I will discredit it.

:eyes:

[helderheid]

17. yes, I am. He has his email [e-mail] - we should

enlighten him. [e-mail] anyone know how to get this to TIA?

[bleever]

36. I PMed it to him over at progressiveindependent.com.

He posts over there under the same name. The site is structured much like DU.

[mod mom]

22. I think it's important to keep this notion in the back of people's

mind, so when the truth is told they will have some recollection and be more accepting of it.

[WiseButAngrySara]

23. Thanks for the post. I too, hope that Plamegate, Niger Forged Documents,

and Bogus illegal, immoral Iraq War will awaken everyone to the corrupt Diebold, ES & S won election 2004.

BTW, I recall reading Freeman's analysis of exit poll data analysis on DU after the election. Does anyone else remember or have links? I downloaded so much info on exit poll data last year,that unless its labeled with his name (which isn't likely in a DU title thread), I won't find it.

[second edition]

24. I don't understand how you can think this man is promoting

Freeman's claims. He does just the opposite in this piece and even calls for everyone to move on-Bush won.

[helderheid]

30. I didn't say he did

I think he's full of crap and too lazy to do his homework.

[Neil Lisst]

25. STOLEN! In Ohio and Florida.

no doubt IMO


bush considers cheney replacements ...
http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst

[helderheid]

31. stolen accross the board. Think he ACTUALLY got the popular vote? PUHLEEZ!

:)

[IndyOp]

26. My letter to the author: Biased & Uninformed Journalism

Dear J. D. Mullane -

I read, with dismay, your article, "Was 2004 presidential election stolen?"

You noted in the article that you are a journalist and that you are - your words, not mine - lousy at math. I am not a journalist. I am not lousy at math. I teach statistics at ________ University and I very much wish that someone with an understanding of statistics -- and an open-mind -- had covered the Freeman-Mitofsky debate.

I have not made up my mind about whether the polling data from 2004 does or does not provide evidence that John Kerry won the election, but as an open-minded person who understands statistics I am interested in learning what Freeman had to say and what Mitofsky had to say. I believe that some of your other readers could say the same.

It seems that you made up your mind before you arrived at the debate - based on your statement that "my blood ran cold after reading the title of his slide show presentation: "Polling Bias or Corrupted Count? Accepted Improbabilities and Neglected Correlations in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Exit Poll Data." You did not want to believe election fraud could have occurred, you wanted Freeman to be wrong.

If you do not possess an understanding of statistics and polling, and if you are unwilling to expend the time necessary to become something of an expert on these topics, then you should not have 'covered' the Freeman-Mitofsky debate.

Juan Cole - political analyst - has commented that only in America would journalists who do not speak Arabic be sent to Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries to report. We send 'generalist' journalists who know no more than anyone else about the history and culture of the country to report so that the report is 'unbiased'. Journalists from other countries who cover Iraq speak Arabic and are knowledgeable of the history, culture, and political systems of Iraq. They are capable of 'reportorial authority' - of objectively reporting events and commenting on the import of those events. Such journalists are capable of thinking for themselves, capable of coming to their own conclusions instead of taking the word of 'experts' who speak English and tell them what to report.

If you do not possess an understanding of statistics and polling, and you are unwilling to expend the time necessary to become something of an expert on these topics, then you won't be able to sort through the information provided by Freeman and Mitofsky -- and provide a thoughtful critique of both presentations for your readers.

Politics is not like baseball - lives are in the balance. Our democracy is at risk when elections are vulnerable.

If eternal vigilance is the price of liberty, how are we citizens to maintain our liberty, to fulfill our responsibility as citizens of a democracy, if journalists are close-minded and incapable of assuming a position of reportorial authority?

IndyOp

[Peace Patriot]

29. IndyOp, I would add to this letter that VOTING SHOULD BE SIMPLE, and

ELECTIONS SHOULD BE TRANSPARENT, and not this gobble-de-gook esoterica of electronic voting, that can only be monitored by EXPERTS.

Who won should be perfectly clear, auditable and recountable, by ordinary people!

I would also add that the goddamned war profiteeting corporate news monopolies DOCTORED the exit poll data to FIT Diebold's and ES&S's secret formula "result, so as to HIDE the evidence of fraud from the American people. No other democracy on earth would put up with this. Exit polls are used everywhere to verify elections and check for fraud. Only here do they fiddle them to confirm fraudulent results!

And why the hell hasn't Mitofsky released his raw data yet?

I guess I'll write my own letter. Good letter, IndyOp! Give 'em hell! Call them a "Judith Miller journalist"! (No beef; all propaganda.)

[IndyOp]

38. You GO Peace Patriot! Post your letter here if you like --

We'll all enjoy knowing that the author will be a bit more informed in future.

:kick:

[helderheid]

32. hell of a letter! Love it!

[Pacifist Patriot]

33. Brilliant! Thank you.

[mnhtnbb]

40. Great letter

You should also send a copy--abbreviated--to the editor of the paper.

[glitch]

41. I hope you cc'd his editor - if they don't have qualified journalists to

send on assignments perhaps they need to hire a qualified stringer for the job.

[Peace Patriot]

27. I just searched for it at Amazon.com. Not there yet. Let's make it a...

BEST SELLER! We can DU it!

There is this great progressive American majority out there (I can establish this beyond question, but I won't go into it here. Check out the issue polls--you'll be amazed!) Many if not most members of this majority feel isolated and alone--feel that they are "the only one"--because of the illusions created by the war profiteering corporate news monopolies, and the Big Trumpet they have given to minority rightwing views. And once this majority gets wind of what was done to them in the 2004 election--their votes 'tabulated' by SECRET, PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by far rightwing Bushite corporations, the complicity of the news monopolies (CHANGING their own exit polls, on everybody's TV screens late on election day, to FIT the result of Diebold's and ES&S's secret formulae), and the bipartisan corruption in the $4 billion electronic voting boondoggle--we are going to see American Revolution II.

Even negative articles are helpful, because the American majority is a lot savvier and hungrier for real information than anybody gives them credit for, and they can read between the lines. They KNOW something's wrong. They KNOW that most of the people THEY know are good, common sense people who voted to oust the Bush Cartel. They have Republican friends who voted against Bush. They know their old curmugeon uncle who never votes got out and voted THIS TIME, to get rid of Bush.

Give them half a chance, give them an honest, transparent election system, give them BACK THEIR RIGHT TO VOTE, and they WILL set this country right again.

They just need to know HOW to do it--what is the problem?

The great majority of Americans are not stupid, and they are not sheeple. They are DISENFRANCHISED!

And when this darker secret comes out--the "trade secret" programming in our voting system, and the corruption around these new voting machines--they will start to take their country back, and woebetide to the criminals who have hijacked our democracy and those who have colluded with them.

Hats off to Stephen Freeman for INFORMING AMERICANS ABOUT WHAT THEY MOST NEED TO KNOW: The election was stolen!

-------

See also...

"MythBreakers," an easy to read pamphlet on the perils of electronic voting: www.votersunite.org

A plan for statistical monitoring and challenging of the '06 and '08 elections: www.UScountvotes.org.

[Peace Patriot]

28. Here are the Freeman urls:

--"The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" (11/10/04), and "Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy " (draft 2/05), by Dr. Steven Freeman, Professor, Center for Organizational Dynamics, Univ. of Penn.; Karel Steuer Chair for entrepreneurship, Univ. de San Andreas, Buenos Aires; Professor of Management, Central Amer. Inst. of Business Administration (INCAE). Reports: http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

"The Corrupted Election," In These Times, 2/15/05, by Dr. Freeman and Dr. Josh Mitteldorf
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1970

-- US Countvotes: "Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report"

Nine Ph.D. experts in statistics say: a) the skew to Bush that is revealed in the official tally (Bush won) vs. the exit polls (Kerry won) cannot be explained by random chance or sampling error, and the odds against it are 10 million to one; b) there is evidence that the Exit polls were actually skewed to Bush (contrary to news reports), meaning that the discrepancy (Kerry's margin) was likely even higher; c) the official explanation for this discrepancy (that Republican voters were shy of the pollsters) is without foundation--in fact, the data reveal that the opposite is probably true; d) there is evidence of unexplained discrepancies in all methods of voting except for paper ballot; and e) the 2004 Election should be investigated (and they are initiating their own).

Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D. - Temple U. Statistics Dept.; Stephen F. Freeman, Ph.D. - Center for Organizational Dynamics, U. of Pennsylvania; Brian Joiner, Ph.D. - Prof. of Statistics/Director of Statistical Consulting (ret), U. of Wisconsin; Frank Stenger, Ph.D. in mathematics - School of Computing, U. of Utah; Richard G. Sheehan, PhD – Dept. of Finance, U. of Notre Dame; Elizabeth Liddle, MA - (UK) Ph.D. candidate at the U. of Nottingham; Paul F. Velleman, Ph.D. – Dept. of Statistical Sciences, Cornell U.; Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D. - Dept of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve U.; Campbell B. Read, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist U.;Kathy Dopp, MS in mathematics - USCountVotes, President. Also Peer Reviewed by USCountVotes’ core group of statisticians and independent reviewers. Contact: Bruce O'Dell, USCountVotes, Vice President [e-mail]. Report: http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf

---------

Freeman withdrew his second study ("Hypothesis...") from internet circulation because his book was coming out. In it, he basically argued--from many sources of information, not just the exit polls--that they flipped 4 million votes that should have gone to Kerry (when you add up the Gore/Bush 2000 voters, and the 2004 independent voters, former Nader voters and the many new voters, most of whom voted for Kerry). (Who else is there? Rove's "invisible" get-out-the-vote voters? Uh-huh.)

(Note: The Dems blew the Repubs away in new voter registration in 2004, nearly 60/40.)

--------

I have a long list of urls related to this subject--other articles published on the exit polls, some great sites on electronic voting (like Chuck Herrin's), etc. Anybody want me to post it here?

[helderheid]

34. that top link is golden

[helderheid]

35. Please post those links. We need to shift from framing the issues to

EXPOSING the fraud!

[ourbluenation]

37. listen up my peeps...stop recommending this thread!

This article is a "bush won get over it" article - read the whole thing. Mods - get it of the greatest page puhleeease!

[IndyOp]

39. I think some of us recommended because we did not understand

that the article was slamming Freeman as a whiny conspiracy theorist --

The thread now contains a kick-ass letter to the author of the article (if I do say so myself :blush:) and it contains links to Freeman's articles available online and brings a bit of excitment to the news that his book is coming out soon.

We might as well put the work of the 'enemy' up front at DU and let people read the rebuttals in the thread. Keep your friends close and your enemies...closer.

:)

On edit: I originally had two t's in 'rebuttals' then took them out, then looked up the word and am now editing my post. Wow - a SPELL-CHECKER here at DU would be nice! We'd have to add a lot of 'new words' -- like moran, Puffy-McMoonface, and so forth... :)

[Melissa G]

43. Freeman summary from Freeman with Freeman response to this

article on the Debate here in the election forum.. Please vote it up to Greatest so we can replace this article with better info

Link Here. Please Nominate!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x397828

[CalmMan]

44. Freeman's response (from MG's thread)

Freeman wrote a response. It doesn't seem like they published it, at least not yet, but here it is (I got it from Melissa G's thread).

* * * * *

I would like to thank the Bucks County Courier Times for covering my presentation to the American Statistical Association (Re: Was 2004 presidential election stolen? by J.D. Mullane http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/219-10202005-557... ).

But what kind of journalism is it for a reporter who acknowledges that he “is lousy at math” to render a pronouncement on a presentation to statisticians without even taking the trouble to try to understand what “correlation” means? Wouldn’t your readers be better served by learning what the statisticians and others in the audience thought?

Just to set the facts in order, the thrust of my presentation was:

We had an election in which (1) extensive malfeasance and count corruption has been documented, and far more has been alleged, but has gone uninvestigated; (2) in Ohio, a state in which Kerry had a decisive edge in the exit poll numbers, a manual count which could have verified the official count was obstructed by the Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell, who also served as chair of the Ohio Bush/Cheney campaign; and (3) 30% of Americans cast their ballots on electronic voting machines providing absolutely no assurance or verifiability that votes were counted as cast.

Given such a context, an exit poll discrepancy of 6 percentage points between the official count and exit poll projections warrants investigation. Especially given a nationwide 6.5 percentage point Precinct-Level Deviation. This is the difference between how 114,559 voters in selected precincts across the nation reported casting their ballots in confidential questionnaires as they exited the polls and the official counts in those very same precincts where the exit polls were conducted. Moreover, these are the final numbers, not the “half-time score” as Mitofsky and Mullane imply.

My talk to the American Statistical Association showed that the official explanation that Bush voters disproportionately – and by a large margin – refused to fill out the questionnaires offered by pollsters is unsubstantiated by the facts. I documented 17 statistical improbabilities and mathematical impossibilities that result from this hypothesis. Readers can read the text and view the slides in the presentation at a web site I established for this research: http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

By the way, Mullane should brush up on metaphor as well as math. “Sour grapes” refers to a rationalization made by a hungry fox as he walked away from succulent grapes that eluded his reach.” I am saying exactly the opposite, that nothing could be more important than a clean election. As John Roberts acknowledged in his confirmation hearings, the right to vote and have that voted counted is “preservative of all other rights.” Because of that, we can’t just move on and walk away from damning evidence of a stolen election.

Steve Freeman
Center for Organizational Dynamics
University of Pennsylvania