Cancel your Cozumel Vacation now! Wilma forecast to hit Cozumel at Cat. 5!

[Up2Late]

Wilma forecast to hit Cozumel and Cancun at Cat. 5!

I really hope they have evacuated that Island, a Cat 5 hitting Cozumel could be VERY deadly! Cancun might have a slightly better chance.

This is the current wind model and track, the purple part of the line at Cozumel and Cancun is the Cat. 5 part of the track. Click the links below for more info and graphics.



<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200524N_0H.html>

21 hour Forecast (the landfall)!
<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200524N_2H.html>

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200524N.html>

<http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/051020113116.t0vdq6t8.html>

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4358876.stm>

[Metta]

1. Hm. Two for two, hurricanes and coastal resorts.

Add in the tsunami and Pakistan and we're looking at something. How's the ozone layer doing?

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

6. Earthquakes have nothing to do with global warming...

...or the ozone layer.

As for the ozone layer, it's doing quite poorly.

[Metta]

11. Putting it all together looking at a greater picture.

The planet is manifesting what we as a people are going through emotionally. It's long taken on our excesses and negligence.

[AngryAmish]

21. No it is not

Otherwise the weather would fluctuate with human suffering.

For example, what sort of natural disasters hit during the Great Leap Forward? Were not vast numbers of people emotionally upset because they were starving to death?

During the Mongol conquest of Persia - what did the Earth do? Again, as a percentage of humanity, most were miserable. Or why leave it at the conquest of Persia. During the initial Mongol conquests -- the Earth did what? The Mongols were the most disruptive force the human race has seen since the last Ice Age.

What did the Earth do from 1500-1600 ad. You know, when hundreds of millions of native Americans died from disease. How did the Earth react?

[Metta]

27. Sometimes there's no apparent direct connection.

I understand your point. What makes more sense to me is seeing things in the reverse relationship, how world climate events trigger vast, emotional responses.

In my understanding, the old saying that misery loves company applies to world events even if we can't see it. There's always some sort of pecking order for energy to settle into even if climate isn't directly involved. Even positive, beneficial energy will cause some kind of upset if its not expressed.

[Toucano]

25. That's not known for certain.

There is speculation that the increased and redistributed wieght of water from the melting polar ice cap can contribute to increased seismic activity.

A link may not have been demonstrated yet, but the hypothesis exists so I wouldn't rule it out completely.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

26. Well...

Any time you redistribute mass around the surface of the earth it can affect seismic activity. That is why it is a bad idea to build huge dams in earthquake zones. Add a lot of water (mass) to the surface, you put pressure on the rocks beneath which may or may not increase the likelihood of an earthquake occuring.

But that is on a very small scale and has absolutely nothing to do with large-scale plate tectonics in places like the trench west of Sumatra, and there's no ocean water on the fault in question in Pakistan.

This gives me a headache. There is literally nothing out of the ordinary about events like those in Pakistan and Sumatra. Hell, the earthquake in Pakistan wasn't even especially strong - it just hit an area where buildings were poorly constructed. The same earthquake might do some damage if it hit LA or the Bay Area, and it would likely kill some people and cause significant property damage, but it certainly wouldn't render MILLIONS of people homeless.

Just because we haven't had a massive tsunami like the 26th December tsunami within the past 30 years doesn't make it unusual. The interval between large quakes can be long or short. And it has nothing at all to do with global warming. Sumatra exists because of large earthquakes. Large earthquakes and volcanic activity associated with the plate boundary built Sumatra. Sumatra is where it is because of strong seismic and volcanic activity, not in spite of it. And Sumatra, I'm sure you would agree, does not exist because of global warming.

[Oreo]

2. Had that happen last year

We were ready for a nice vacation in Grand Cayman last October. It was scheduled for a week after the hurricane pretty much destroyed the island. We went to Aruba instead (pre Natalie Holloway!). Cayman is much nicer in my opinion.

[HereSince1628]

3. Doesn't a red track mean Cat 4? Wait I see it tiny lilac line

going in.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Looks like a direct hit on Isla Mujeres....

Is everything of beauty in the Caribbean going to be destroyed this year?

[murray hill farm]

5. Isla Mujeres!

i am still here on the island of isla...tried to get off last night and this morning...but could not..ferry no longer running...so, i am stuck to ride it out. my daughter called to say that isla mujeres was completely evacuated except for officials..saw it on weather channel, but not true. Shelters set up at schools on the island, but i think i am better to stay where i am..about mid island...the neighbors next door have a second story..so i will stay with them...already raining and high winds here.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

7. Damn.

Just... Damn. Good luck. There's no chance you can get off the island?

[pitohui]

9. keep safe & keep us informed when you can

we'll be thinking of you

[Rowdyboy]

12. Please keep in touch as much as possible...

Our thoughts, prayers, karmic wishes-whatever you like-are with you.

[northamericancitizen]

13. Sending "good vibes" your way. Be safe.

[Up2Late]

14. Do what you can to stay safe, this is going to be a very rough ride.

I hope your shelter is very strong and very high above the sea (20 feet or more)

Good luck, and keep us informed when you can. :hide:

[BiggJawn]

8. Well, poop! I was gonna sail my 53-footer to Roatan this weekend!

:sarcasm:

[Berserker]

16. I was on Roatan last December

I would NEVER recommend anyone to go their. That place needs lots of work. Prostitutes go for $2.00 thats two dollars American just to give and Idea of whats going on. I feel sorry for the people and I also feel sorry for the people on cruise ships that stop their.

[BiggJawn]

19. No Worries.

In THIS economy, the only way I'll ever be in the Caribe is if somebody mails a box of my ashes to be scattered there.

[VolcanoJen]

10. I heart Cozumel.

:-( :-( :-(

I also heart Costa Maya, on the Yucatan mainland, and I'm thinking of this wonderful little beachfront bar/shack called Tapas.

Take care, Costa Maya, and the beautiful island of Cozumel.

:-(

[Up2Late]

15. Tourists flee as woeful Wilma roars toward Mexican resorts (AFP)

Tourists flee as woeful Wilma roars toward Mexican resorts

20/10/2005 21h06


Hurricane Wilma ©AFP/NOAA-HO

CANCUN, Mexico (AFP) - Packed buses raced thousands of tourists away from Mexican Caribbean resorts amid frenzied last-minute efforts to escape an expected wallop from Hurricane Wilma.

Though the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic has lost some strength, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it remained a dangerous category four hurricane on the five level Saffir-Simpson scale.

Tens of thousands of holidaymakers cut short their vacations along the sun-bathed Yucatan coastline here and fled for airports or inland shelters before the storm makes a forecast hit. The peninsula is very popular among European and US tourists.

A 33-year-old Mexican woman was electrocuted and killed in Cancun as she readied for the arrival of the storm, authorities said. "It was an unfortunate contact with a high-tension wire that caused the woman's death," said Felix Canun, a spokesman for the city of Benito Juarez, which includes the resort area.

<http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/051020210620.7pvsfaqx.html>
(more at link above)

[Puglover]

17. We have a little place

in Playa. But the walls are cement and 2 feet thick. I doubt much will happen but I worry for all our friends and the many people there who don't have much of a shelter at all.

[Roland99]

18. Winds are now 150mph sustained; 184mph gusts.

[Lex]

20. Update on Wilma. Not so good . . .

Wilma's impact on Mexico

Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding.

Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[radwriter0555]

22. OUCH. Well, maybe it's a good thing I didn't buy that investment land

about a half kilometer north of Playa... Looks like it's going to get wiped out.

What a shame. Such a beautiful area, great people.

[Up2Late]

23. Wow. That sucks.

What a horrible prediction. I don't envy any of those folks down there.

[Up2Late]

24. Here's a Close-up view from the Cuban Weather Service

(Click on the thumbnail that says Zona de Interés for the Close-up)

<http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=SAT>