Prediction: 8-member Supreme Court until 2009

[bustarbusto]

Bush, practising his particular specialty as seen in Iraq and fiscal policy, has painted himself into a corner once again with the Harriet Miers nomination. The stealth candidate who was meant to slip under the radar of the left, Roberts-style, while being blindly accepted by the cynically sanctimonious right, will not be accepted by either side. Her confirmation is a guaranteed dud. Worse for Bush Inc. is that following her failure all sensors will be active on both sides. The wacko contingent of the radical conservatives won't accept anyone who is not a vocally unequivocal anti-abortion advocate with a solid paper trail to prove it, the liberals won't accept anyone who is.

If Bush pushes through a transparently anti-Roe candidate, the Republican party will lose their moderate base and be doomed for decades. And if Bush were foolish enough to submit another nominee who is hazy on that issue, he'll be crucified by the neocons.

Any nomination Bush submits after withdrawing Miers' name (and there's no way she'll make it past the confirmation hearings) is suicide. Get ready for a four-four court for the next three years.

Just a prediction.

Plug: http://www.avantnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=146">Here's an optimistic prior-to-the-fact transcript of the not-going-to-happen Miers hearings. Optimistic in the sense that I strongly doubt there will be a hearing for Miers. Still, it's 17,000 words worth, and it's rather droll. If you had the stomach to read the entire transcript of the Roberts hearings, you might find much of it eerily familiar.

[jobycom]

1. That's a possibility. You know, Bush can make a recess appointment

to SCOTUS. It's happened before, and he was rejected when the appointment expired. Not that I know any details, I just saw it on a list of SCOTUS justices once.

Here's something: What if Bush packs the Supreme Court? We can campaign in 2008 on the partisan Court, win the presidency and Senate, and raise the number of justices to 11. Just a thought.

[lonestarnot]

2. I like the sound of this!

[Jack Bone]

3. O'Connor has said that she'll stay on the court until..

her successor has been confirmed...so we'll still have 9 total judges, barring any unfortunate passings...

[bustarbusto]

4. That's a good point.

I'd forgotten that her retirement is conditional on a replacement having been confirmed.

I hereby revise my prediction to a 9-member court with O'Connor continuing as associate justice until the next democratically elected president, i.e., a democrat, can name her successor in 2009, barring, as you say, ill health or passing.