If Rove is indicted 2005 will be the best year for Democrats since 1998

[Ignacio Upton]

In all honesty, the Democrats have not had a "good" year politcally-speaking since 1998 when we massively reduced the Republican's margains in Congress and toppled Newt Gingrich as a result of a backlash toward impeaching Clinton. Case in point, here is my summary of our party from 1999-2004

1999: Bush announced candidacy with media gushing over him. Fissure in Democratic primary between Al Gore and Bill Bradley. Dispite this, as far as I remember, the Republicans didn't make any political victories in that year, so it is sort of a neutral year.

2000: Bush stole Florida and the election, with Gore's campaign advisors, the Mainstream Media's shilling for the Republicans, and Ralph Nader all playing factors in making the election as close as it was. Even though we tied the Senate (hell, Ashcroft lost his Senate seat to Mel Carnahan who was already killed in a plane crash several weeks earlier.)

2001: Bush passed his tax cuts and the Democratic party in general bowed before him, until we got the Senate when Jeffords switched. Bush was appearing to be a lame duck until September 11th, when he instantly rose to 90% approval numbers from the public. The only other good of the year was when we gained the Governor's mansions in New Jersey and Virginia (both of which are up for grabs right now).

2002: The fearing of another 9/11, combined with the march to war in Iraq, combined with Democratic ineffectivness in rebutting Bush and offering a cohesive campaign message led to us losing control of the Senate.

2003: The Iraq War itself, and the media smearing of Howard Dean and false conventional wisdoms. We also lost Governor's races in Kentucky and Mississippi (we will probably get Kentucky back in 2007 because of Fletcher)and Blanco got elected in Louisiana (although I don't know if she will get re-elected because of the perception that it was her fault during Katrina.)

2004: Bush managed to get people afraid of a Democratic Presidency on the issue of terrorism. Kerry was also swift-boated, and a last minute Bin Laden tape helped Bush win the popular vote. In Ohio, I'm not going to go into detail because it is still up in the air what really happened.

This year, we have seen Bush lose in his battle to privatize Social Security, more revelations about his incompetence in the War, and his mishandling of Katrina. DeLay's indictment has also hurt. If Rove and Libby are next, and it could be a knockout blow for Bush in 2006. Most of these events this year will not hurt Bush politcally until people go to the ballot box next year, only if we remind them about what Bush has done though.

[eallen]

1. The major sea change is that social issues now define the GOP.

The Republicans are now the Party against abortion, against gay rights generally and gay marriage especially, against stem cell research, against reproductive technologies, etc. Strategically, that has its benefits and weaknesses. It virtually guarantees them the vote of the religious right. The flip-side is that it should be easy for the Democrats to capture the vote of everyone who cares about civil liberty.

Should be.

[Vincardog]

3. They are also the party against open Fair elections.

Paper ballots hand counts now

[eallen]

4. Not openly so. Yeah, I know: deeds and words are different.

But a lot of politics is about words. The new GOP has been very good at spin.

[AX10]

2. We need massive wins next year.