Fitzgerald will not issue indictments,

[sasha031]

As Lawrence O'Donnell explains why

Will Fitzgerald issue indictments? Washington and cable news care about nothing else these days. The answer is: No, he won’t. The most Fitzgerald will do is ask his grand jury to issue indictments. It’s really all up to them. Which raises the question: who are they? A federal grand jury has 23 members.

A typical Washington, D.C. grand jury is about 75% African American. Fitzgerald’s is slightly more than that. This is not the kind of group Karl Rove feels at home with. He has no professional experience trying to appeal to a group like this. He has been so unsuccessful at it that his boss’s job approval rating with African Americans is now 2%, which, factoring in the margin of error, could actually be zero. To make matters statistically and demographically much worse for Rove and Scooter Libby, only 12 of the 23 grand jurors have to agree to indict them.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/up-to-the-grand-jury_b_9288.html

[Walt Starr]

1. Very true! n/t

[Catherine Vincent]

2. Funny.

[mmonk]

3. my favorite part:

"only 12 of the 23 grand jurors have to agree to indict them".

[FreedomAngel82]

So does that mean it's going to happen??

And will more people come along for indictments?

[mmonk]

13. the odds are good.

[Virginian]

21. Those 23 grand jurors don't have congressional representation

because DC doesn't have a voting representative in congress.

I had to mention it. DC needs full representation just like the rest of the nation. A voting rep and two senators would be a nice gift to them once the dems are in power again.

[alfredo]

51. Here is the chance to be heard loud and clear.

Let the fascist at 1600 feel the real will of the people, not some manipulated stream of one's and zero's from some Diebold voting machine.

[MsKandice01]

4. Oh my!!

This just gets better and better!!

[cassiepriam]

5. Can Rove do a Delay? Ask for another judge, jury etc etc

Move things out of this jurisdiction?

[Walt Starr]

8. He can ask

but there's no precedent to cite for asking, so it will be denied.

[cassiepriam]

26. but delay is doing it in texas?

[MadisonProgressive]

11. Sure and I can ask Bill Gates to send me a billion dollars

[cassiepriam]

29. Actually I think Rove should do that too.

He just might need a few bucks for legal fees.

[sasha031]

14. think maybe the 2% will be there?

A typical Washington, D.C. grand jury is about 75% African American.

:bounce:

[Ignacio Upton]

6. You got me very scared reading that title.

Until I realized that the Grand Jury gives out the indictments.

[Delphinus]

12. You got that right!

I was sitting here with my mouth agape screaming "WHY???!!!!!!!"

[MidwestTransplant]

16. Me too! Mean thread title....

[sasha031]

18. sorry didn't mean to do that

[Catherine Vincent]

63. yeah you did!

:P

[FreedomAngel82]

7. Maybe this is why Fitzgerald isn't going to

Maybe he knows they will. So this way they can't blame him but the jury.

[Garbo 2004]

50. In cases where there is a grand jury it is the grand jury that votes

whether or not to indict and on what charges. Generally the prosecutor lays out the case and provides the charges for them to consider, based on the evidence. The prosecutor may ask the grand jury to issue indictments but it's still the grand jury that decides whether to indict or not. The grand jury issues the indictments, not the prosecutor. That's the procedure.

A grand jury say in murder cases, etc, where the prosecutor presents his virtually completed and shaped case before the grand jury, is often considered just a tool of the prosecution. Hence the saying, a prosecutor could get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich.

But here the grand jury clearly was an investigative tool and part of a long investigative process. If they issue indictments I'm thinking it likely won't be merely as a rubber stamp of a prosecutor's decision to ask for indictments. They'll have seen the case developing and the folks testifying for themselves.

[lonestarnot]

9. They will absolutely do the right thing!

I have no doubts!

[Buddyblazon]

10. Boy oh boy!

"A typical Washington, D.C. grand jury is about 75% African American. Fitzgerald’s is slightly more than that. This is not the kind of group Karl Rove feels at home with. He has no professional experience trying to appeal to a group like this. He has been so unsuccessful at it that his boss’s job approval rating with African Americans is now 2%, which, factoring in the margin of error, could actually be zero."

You'd think for this reason (known at the time of Hurrican Katrina), these guys would've bent over backwards to make sure the Black population in NO and the south had been taken care of a little better.

How arrogant do these MFer's have to be to not even TRY to have helped them down there? I mean, are they just that out of touch? Are just that cocky?

This is sweet irony.

[IntravenousDemilo]

69. And after all...

George W Bush hates black people (and midgets, too).

[xchrom]

15. it's like a boomerang.

bushco delivered evil to the people.
and the people will deliver justice to them.


well, i hope anyway.
my faith in ''the people'' went with my belief in leperchauns.
so, we'll see.

[Junkdrawer]

17. The wheels of justice grind slowly.......but exceedingly fine....

:evilgrin:

[ComerPerro]

19. "After factoring in the margin of error, could be zero" LOL

[Pepper32]

20. Oh really...

"A typical Washington, D.C. grand jury is about 75% African American. Fitzgerald’s is slightly more than that."

lol, how ironic.

[Ksec]

22. Im takin bets

I say indictments are definite .
Id be willing to bet big bucks.

[WiseButAngrySara]

23. Why only 12 out of 23? This is strange. Just a slight majority. Where

did they come up with these numbers?

[Davis_X_Machina]

36. Grand juries only sign off on whether there's enough evidence...

...to warrant the full process of a charge, trial and disposition.

It's the legal equivalent of 'jacks or better to open'.

It's not the play of the hand -- a trial -- itself.

And the simple majority is the voting version of 'the preponderance of the evidence'.

[WiseButAngrySara]

43. Thanks! But why 23? It seems like 24 (twice the number of a regular

jury) would 'make more sense'...(and for a simple majority, you'ld need 13 out of 24).

[Pithy Cherub]

62. Odd numbers just like SCOTUS.

there is always, if you will, a tie break vote.

[WiseButAngrySara]

75. Fascinating! I'd not thought of that. Thanks. eom.

[northzax]

40. for a federal grand jury

you need a simple majority to issue an indictment. it's where the old yarn about a prosecutor being able to indict a ham sandwich, if he wants to.

don't buy it. If the prosecutor wants indictments, he'll get them. if he doesn't, he won't but he's calling the shots here.

[WiseButAngrySara]

47. Thanks! I hope they'll be indicting 'ham sandwich' Porkie the Pig KKK...!

eom

[AspenRose]

24. So THAT'S why Bunnypants is at Howard today!

*snarf* Another "colored folk photo-op" to circulate in DC. The timing is suspect.

I smell DESPERATION....

[Skidmore]

30. Bet they really are regretting how they handled NOLA, huh?

And then there's all that dissin' of the NAACP and the CBC...

[Duer 157099]

25. I have a problem with this comment:

"... (Bush's) job approval rating with African Americans is now 2%, which, factoring in the margin of error, could actually be zero."

I realize that it's sarcasm, but there's no way it could actually be zero. Statements like that make the writer lose credibility imho.

[Pepper32]

27. Yeah, you're right, can't leave out Condi and Powell

[cassiepriam]

28. I am curious, why couldn't it be zero?

[meganmonkey]

31. Well, it isn't sarcasm, because statistically it could be true

It most likely isn't true, but it could be...

:shrug:

[cally]

35. No, it couldn't

I'm hoping someone comes on that is better able to explain this.

[demobabe]

48. Sure it could.

This is margin of error we're dealing with - the imprecise part of the poll - not whether or not Bush has PRECISELY zero black supporters.

Suppose we could get his approval among blacks that was 100% accurate with no margin of error, and it was 0.3%?

Then technically, his approval rating would be 0% among blacks.

So what these reporters are saying is accurate and possible as it is within the margin of error. They aren't saying his approval rating is 0% among blacks, just that it is possible within the margin of error.

[cally]

61. First, I haven't looked at this particular poll, but the sample

size has to increase to accurately predict small numbers. I would expect that the margin of error on the 2 percent figure is much larger than for the entire poll. Secondly, mathematically the number cannot be zero. It could be 0.3 percent and reported as zero but it can't be zero.

[Orangepeel]

70. I don't think you need a bigger sample size because the result is smaller

although you are correct, that the margin of error is probably bigger for African Americans because there will be less of them in the sample. But, of course, a larger margin of error won't make it less likely that the actual number is closer to zero than a smaller margin of error. It just means that the actual value could be between, say 0 and 7 instead of 0 and 5.

I don't see why the number can't be zero mathematically. It can't be zero practically, because we know that there is at least one African American in the country that supports bush. But theoretically, there's nothing to stop population percentages estimated by a sample from being zero.

[Orangepeel]

65. I don't see why not, theoretically

of course, it isn't 0, because there are going to be some African Americans who approve of him (since we can be pretty sure that Condi Rice and Clarence Thomas approve of him, we can be pretty sure that the number is not 0). But, theoretically, if all African Americans disapprove, then the percentage that approve would be zero.

A margin of error of +/-3% means that 95% of the time, a sample of the size taken (assuming no other sources of error), would produce results that are within 3% of the actual value. So, the actual value could be anywhere from 0 to 5.

[cally]

72. No, the poll itself found a few blacks that support

* so it could never be zero.

[Orangepeel]

74. You are correct

the minimum number is the actual number of African Americans they asked that said they supported bush (because theoretically, they could have coincidentally polled all of them)

[Duer 157099]

52. Zero has a very specific meaning

It means NONE! Surely statistics has a way to communicate the idea of very small without saying zero? I do recall learning that sort of thing in calculus.

[cally]

32. Several journalists have used that line

and every time it makes me cringe. Haven't they ever taken a statistics or math course?

[IntravenousDemilo]

71. Sometimes you just have to make allowances for satire. n/m

[mod mom]

34. I believe it was Keith Olbermann who had it a -1. He hasn't lost

crediability with me. ;)

[dalaigh lllama]

37. Actually, the margin of error was + or - 3%

So their approval rate COULD be -1%.:D

[Zynx]

39. It could be low enough that it is statistically close to zero.

[cally]

46. Yes but the sample size would need to be larger to predict thatF

[WilliamPitt]

53. Funny. I said it just the other day.

Whole swaths of the electorate are abandoning this White House en masse. The single most profound swing comes within the African-American community, which gave Bush a 51% approval rating in the months after 9/11. Well, you can take those chips off the felt. "In what may turn out to be one of the biggest free-falls in the history of presidential polling," writes Dan Froomkin in the Washington Post, "President Bush's job-approval rating among African Americans has dropped to 2 percent, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The drop among blacks drove Bush's overall job approval ratings to an all-time low of 39 percent in this poll. By comparison, 45 percent of whites and 36 percent of Hispanics approve of the job Bush is doing."

Two percent. That's within the margin of error, so it is entirely reasonable to suspect that not one single African American in the country approves of the job Bush and his crew are doing. For an administration that had been attempting to make electoral inroads into this voting bloc, and had spent a good deal of money and time to do so, that tiny little number represents a staggering body blow.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/101405Q.shtml

[Duer 157099]

54. Will... what about Condi?

"...so it is entirely reasonable to suspect that not one single African American in the country approves of the job Bush and his crew are doing."

[WilliamPitt]

58. Um...

People in the Cabinet don't really count.

[Duer 157099]

60. LOL, well can't say I disagree

however, surely she must have family members who are similarly deluded. Maybe family don't count either. Hmmm. Friends? Nope, not them.

OK, maybe it can be zero then.

OH! Wait, there's Blackwell in Ohio. Are all politicians exempt too?

This is approaching zero.

[demobabe]

33. I don't understand much about grand juries

Like who/how/where they are picked.

But if this grand jury is picked from people from Washington, D.C., another thing to remember is that in the 2004 election, 90% of ALL voters in D.C. voted for John Kerry.

[tx_dem41]

38. Is anyone else bothered by the fact that O'Donnell is implying that...

African-Americans would be biased (citing the 2% approval rating) going into the grand jury process and not reasonably/fairly weigh ONLY the evidence presented to them?

[Pepper32]

41. Well,

With a 38% approval rating for * the majority of Americans (62%) could be considered bias.

[tx_dem41]

44. Everyone is biased. But, the grand jury system (and the jury system...

...in general), rests upon the fact that we set aside those biases when participating on a jury. It seems too many, including O'Donnell, don't believe that African-Americans are capable of doing that.

[Pepper32]

55. Really? lol

Contrary to prejudice opinions African Americans can and do make intelligent decisions based on the facts.

However, I agree everyone is bias (black, white, brown or yellow) yet despite this FACT this issue doesn't come up with any other race.

[tx_dem41]

56. We agree on that. It never seems to.

I wonder why so many people, regardless of political ideology, buy into that. Most have on that particular subthread upstream, sadly enough.

[Catherine Vincent]

68. No, I am not bothered by his implication.

I am sure the jurist are very articulate.:)

[DemsUnited]

42. Washington DC went 90% for Kerry in 2004. Bush got 9%.

That was before Katrina.

DC Does Not :loveya: Bush.

[tx_dem41]

45. What does that have to do with participating on a Grand Jury...

and fairly weighing only the evidence presented to you? :shrug:

[demobabe]

57. I understand the point you're trying to make

but let me ask you this: what would you think if the grand jury happened to be comprised of a little over 75% white Texas Republican oilmen.

Would you suspect they would weigh the evidence and make the same judgment as Fitzgerald's grand jury?

[tx_dem41]

59. If not, they shouldn't be on the GJ. I would expect the voir dire process

to weed out those that were biased. Call me an idealist, or call me someone that doesn't buy into stereotypes (not implying that you are, btw).

Thank you for taking the time to respond.

[demobabe]

64. So you are saying that

you would believe, 100%, that the grand jury made up of white Texas oilmen would return the exact same verdict as Fitzgerald's grand jury?

[tx_dem41]

66. Yes...

again...call me naive. Or call me someone that actually knows some white Texas oilmen.

[demobabe]

73. Well, it should work that way

Yes, that would be ideal. I would love to see things always work that way.

But there is a difference between how things should work, and reality.

Tom Delay shouldn't have gotten special treatment when he was arrested. But he did.

The Supreme Court should have stayed out of the 2000 election. But it didn't. And they wrote a partisan decision for their own political ends - which should never have happened.

Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 911, yet our troops - including children of DUers - are over there getting wounded and killed and blown apart, for a fake war built on lies.

The fact is the odds for ONCE appear to be going in our favor - not by bias but more by statistical profile, and here you are trying to politically correct it to death.

Maybe the fact that 98% of blacks disapprove of Bush and 90% in DC voted against him means they see through the bullshit and are less likely to buy into this load of crap the corrupt ones want to sell us? Even the white Democrats can't see that clearly.

Nobody is saying black folks are less likely to be able to weigh the evidence without bias - if anything, I think these journalists are saying the grand jury is more likely to not buy into the bullshit folks like Karl Rove will lay on them to get the free hall pass they always expect.

[deadparrot]

49. Damn, and I was all ready to get all huffy,

and tell everyone to chill out. :)

Very clever.

[AngryAmish]

67. He will indict because we are not failures