Gerth: Experts sound warnings on Oil Production Capacity

[oregonindy]

just got back from drudge....yeah I feel dirty but....anybody have any other links to this?

GERTH: EXPERTS SOUND WARNINGS ON OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY... secret intelligence report warns of doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand oil capacity... Developing Thursday... MORE...secret intelligence report warns of doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand oil capacity... Developing Thursday... MORE...

[yltlatl]

1. Funny...

I was about to post from the NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/27/business/worldbusiness/27oil.html?pagewanted=1

"There's always been this tenet on the American side," said Nawaf Obaid, a consultant to Saudi Arabia on energy security, "that the Saudis knew what they were doing and rightfully so."

But a senior intelligence official, who insisted on remaining anonymous because he was not permitted to speak publicly on the issue, said that the Saudi plans to increase production by nearly 14 percent in the next four years were not enough to meet global demand. Even the Energy Information Administration recently scaled back its expectations of how much more oil the Saudis could pump in 20 years.

<--snip-->

Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, told reporters after the meeting that the Saudi program was "a very good plan because it addresses the underlying issue you have when you talk about price, which is an issue of availability of oil and availability of capacity."

But there are doubts about the Saudi assertions about how much oil they have. Data about reserves is tightly guarded, and the Saudis dismiss skeptics as uninformed.

But they do not dismiss Edward O. Price Jr., the former head of exploration for Saudi Aramco and an adviser to the United States government about Persian Gulf oil during both Iraq wars. He questioned future reliance on Saudi capacity in an article in The New York Times last year and wanted to know from his former colleagues how they reached their estimate of more than 150 billion barrels of extra oil. Twenty years ago, a detailed study by geologists from four large American oil companies then in partnership with Aramco found little in the way of undiscovered oil resources, he said.

Mr. Saleri, who manages Saudi reservoirs, met with Mr. Price in the United States last year. Saudi Aramco officials declined to respond to questions about the meeting. But Mr. Price said in an interview that Mr. Saleri told him that the basis for the higher oil figures was a global study in 2000 by the United States Geological Survey estimating Saudi Arabia's undiscovered resources at 87 billion barrels.

Mr. Price said he responded that the estimates "by the U.S.G.S. had no credibility and far exceeded the detailed studies by the old Aramco team." The Aramco study, unlike the survey estimate, involved detailed field work.

Questions about Saudi Arabia's long-term estimates were also raised last year in a report by the National Intelligence Council, an advisory panel that produces the government's most authoritative intelligence estimates, according to a government official who insisted on not being identified because the report was classified.

This is the biggest Peak Oil news I've seen in a while. Notice in particular the expert who a) pokes holes in the Saudi reserve estimates and b) shoots down the U.S.G.S. survey the Saudis used to justify their claims. Does anyone else notice anything strange about Saudis relying on U.S.G.S. surveys--and ones unsupported by field work at that--to justify their optimistic (er... false) reserve claims?

[IDemo]

2. This old news, just in - Saudi's continue to lie about oil reserves

Saudi Aramco, the state owned oil production entity of Saudi Arabia, doubled their 'estimated reserves' twenty-so years ago, and have recently added another ~200 billion barrels on to dispel any doubts about their ability to remain the most important energy supplier on the planet. Problem is, the geological evidence seems to point to an end of easily discovered/extracted 'sweet light crude' (low sulfur). They are currently pumping an ocean of water each day (7 million barrels) just to herd the remaining oil towards producing wells. Unfortunately, the output at the wellhead has an increasingly unprofitable 'watercut', or percentage of water/oil (30-55%):

http://www.energybulletin.net/401.html

[Mojorabbit]

3. If we knew for sure they

only had a small amt of oil, their rule of that country would end and they know it. Self preservation to lie.

[IDemo]

4. We do know for sure

And so does Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, (also know as "Bandar Bush", for his close relationship with the Bush clan).