My thoughts on why Fitz is squeezing Rove

[onenote]

To get evidence to use against Libby, as follows:

Reading a detailed account of the Plamegate affair in today's paper, and then going back and re-reading the indictment, it suddenly hit me as to what may be going on between Fitz and Rove. This obviously is just my best guess, but I think it makes some sense in the context of everything that Fitz has said and done.

It is widely accepted that Rove is Official A. According to the indictment (para 21), Libby and Rove spoke about Plame on July 10 or 11 -- before Libby's conversation with Cooper (and at least one of his conversations with Miller) and possibly before he spoke to Russert.

What I think is going on is that Rove hasn't been forthcoming about his conversation with Libby. If Rove testifies that he discussed Plame with Libby before Libby spoke to Cooper and that their conversation supports the conclusion that Libby learned of Plame's identity from government sources, not reporters, it will strengthen the case against Libby.

In other words, Fitz is trying to get Rove to roll over on Libby. If not, Fitz probably will charge Rove with making false statements and/or obstruction of justice (but probably not perjury).

There may be a lot more to it than that, but my guess is that this is what is going on....

onenote

[comradebillyboy]

1. Fitz already has Libby dead to rights

I think he's looking higher up the food chain, like maybe to the dick himself. and with any luck such luminaries as bolton and ari as accomplices

[H2O Man]

2. Interesting point.

A number of things support your theory. For example, when Karl went back for the 4th time to testify in front of the grand jury, he was looking to protect himself. He testified for 4 hours and 15 minutes, which would indicate he was talking about more than his chate with Matthew Cooper.

In the days that followed, Rove's legal team leaked to the press that Karl and Scooter had talked to each other about their contacts with journalists about Wilson and Plame. The indictment notes that an unnamed government official spoke to Scooter about Novak; this was clearly Karl.

Besides the lie about Russert, on which Libby is caught in an obvious lie (not a failure of memory at all), the talk with Rove about Novak -- who Libby then called -- is strong evidence that Libby was fully aware of what he was doing.

However, what I would suggest to you is that Rove has already helped nail Libby. I think the pressure is being applied on Libby himself to reveal some private conversations that Libby had with Cheney. Rove has already pointed his finger in the VP's direction. But Fitzgerald wants more evidence before nailing the vice president of the United States. Libby has what Fitzgerald needs.

[AussieDave]

3. Ah, but will Libby flip on Cheney ??

I guess it all depends on whether the downfall of Cheney would REALLY hurt Bush - if not, then Cheney is expendable.

If it would, then Libby could be induced to shut up and do the time, if it's not TOO long and could be done at a Club Fed.

[H2O Man]

4. Incarceration.

It's one thing for a guy like Scooter to talk tough from the safety and comfort of an administration office. His tough guy routine may have impressed many at the republican cocktail parties. But the cushioning and comforts he has enjoyed are soon to disappear.

I do not think Scooter wants to be incarcerated for a long period. And, while he is not going to be in the dungeons of the state prison systems, I do not think that the "Club Fed" thing is real. The truth is somewhere in between. Judith Miller was in a detention center, and it took a toll on her. Any prison in the country is less inviting than a detention center.

Scooter is in the desert now. It's a place where other people can't really help you. You have to deal with yourself. Even a guy who prides himself on mental self-discipline will find his mind beginning to play tricks on him.

When a person's mind begins to play those tricks on him, be it from ingesting substances, fasting, insanity, or any number of external factors, there is a fairly common event. The "conscious mind" experiences the "watcher." And the conscious mind asks, "Who are you?"; the watcher responds, "Who wants to know?"

Scooter is going to find out who he really is.

[DoYouEverWonder]

5. Especially now that the White House

has ordered everyone on staff not to talk to him anymore. That has to be devastating and isolating a man facing 30 years in prison, might not be such a good idea after all.

[cassiepriam]

7. In addition he will be asking WHO ARE MY FRIENDS?

WHOM CAN I TRUST? Right now he may well be asking these questions. No doubt he is being promised much by those he is protecting. But Libby knows full well how little they can be trusted and how dangerous they are. The line between co-conspirator and victim is a thin one.

[countingbluecars]

6. Can Libby really afford

to trust his fellow conspirators? He knows how they all lie. Can he really be sure that he will receive a short time in prison or an eventual pardon? Will they forget they even knew him once he takes the blame? It must be tough being part of a pack of liars-you can't trust your own.

[cassiepriam]

8. Won't they have to pardon him, just to prevent him from singing later?

[porphyrian]

9. 'Cause he's such a cute widdew fatty, yes he is...!

Oh, you didn't mean literally. Sorry.

[LunaC]

10. In TV-land it goes like this.....

(as I posted on another thread...)

A crime has been committed. The perps have been identified and separated from one another. Each is told that The Other Guy is pointing the finger at THEM! (cue Sam Waterston saying "You better level with me or you're taking the Fall all by yourself...") Trickle, trickle, trickle.

The prosecutor goes back and forth, playing one perp against the other, and with each new tidbit of info they volunteer, the Big Picture starts to emerge with greater clarity until the crime is solved. Cue closing credits. Dissolve into commercial.

Fitz has effectively cornered the perps - Rove and Libby can't strategize with one another any more and it's every man for himself. Rove has taken the bait, is fishing for a plea bargain and is cooperating, hence no indictments for right now.

Libby, on the other hand, is playing hard-ass so he’s been treated to “the squeeze”….tell the truth or face hard jail time. While he professes his innocence and demands his day in court, a public trial is the Cabal’s worst nightmare…no one can risk having their dirty little secrets revealed under oath and WH hierarchy refusing to testify “on the grounds that it may incriminate me” will be damning testimony in and of itself.

Libby. Rock. Hard place. He wonders about the witness protection program but realizes his days are numbered. There is no good ending to this story for him. And Rove isn't entirely off the hook yet either.

This is just the first few minutes into the drama and we've gone into a commercial break. There's more to come. Someone is going to crack sooner or later.

It's entirely possible that Rove will give up Cheney as the instigator of the leak and tie-in Libby as a fellow henchman in exchange for a reduced sentence - 3 to 5 yrs. instead of a hard 30. If Libby corroborates Rove's version, he may get a reduced sentence too.

[AussieDave]

12. I love that scenario - stay tuned........

[lumberjack_jeff]

11. Ali-Bubba and the other 40 thieves...

are all being squeezed simultaneously. Miller rats on Libby, Cooper rats on Rove, Rove rats on Libby, Libby rats on Rove and Cheney.

Just turn up the heat a little and they'll fry themselves. The indictment is primarily to remind everyone that this is serious business.