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I've looked at it a while and...in a sense the 2002 and 2004 elections were all about stupid people getting to act up. (The 2000 election was more deeply insane and bizarre stuff, even, but not as organized.) Black, white, Latino. It was people getting crap in their heads out, dogmatism and stereotyping and ego and 'religion' and vanity beyond belief everywhere.
The election results were IMHO, in a sense, that the net impoverishment and idiocy and other pain of the Bush years were not as hard and scary for the people on the Republican side as the way the world has been changing from what it has been. Defective as that past has been.
Every election now the ground slips and the big uniformly voting blocs of voters that are the conventional 'wisdom', the castes and classes of a Sixties/Seventies/EIghties U.S., seem to be less in evidence. Instead, voters split ever more along generational and 'religious'/cultural lines. Elections- despite what the Parties pretend they are 'about'- are in voters' eyes collectively very simply about voting for the Past/Stasis versus for the Future/beginning to accept Change. I guess 2005 will go down as when the the scale between the two things finally tipped from resistance to adaption.
As for Latino voters specifically, the latest halfdecent polling of them (Zogby's, 2-3 days ago) has Latino Bush approval at 21%. A year ago the Latino vote for Bush was a little under 40%. As a white guy and onetime Southern Californian who spent all kinds of time exploring everyplace between Houston and L.A. it doesn't surprise me, intellectually, that both facts can be true in the span of a year. Emotionally it's harder, though. I'm trying to rationalize it as the Spanish colonial legacy/'tradition'- the authority assumed by the Catholic Church, the deference given certain kinds of powerful white people and not others, the extremified gender roles, the rigid feudal/agrarian mores, the crude mercenary elements of economic life- fanned up in a major way one more time. If so, hopefully it has burned out a lot of fuel.
Your last paragraph is essentially why Kerry decided to gamble his run at the Presidency on Ohio and Florida, dreary and corrupt and mismanaged stuff that they are politically, rather than the Southwest. Splitting off the relatively educated and not terribly religious moderate Republicans, who happen to be very largely whites, that's where the national mandate for change (also fatal damage to the GOP and the choice to live in the past it represents) really happens to be. Which makes for that wierd politics that Kerry and Hillary Clinton are engaged in that a lot of DU tries to give them grief about. It's unfortunately made for a vacuum in national Democratic efforts in the Southwest for the time being.
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