Howard Dean leading among Dems in latest ABC Poll.

[mzmolly]

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 26-29, 2003. Registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"

Dean is steady and Gep is moving up. Kerry is now below Lieberman?


Howard Dean 17
Richard Gephardt 14
Wesley Clark 14
Joseph Lieberman 13
John Kerry 8
Al Sharpton 7
John Edwards 5
Carol Moseley Braun 3
Dennis Kucinich 2
None (vol.) 5
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 10

[CMT]

1. Gephardt could be the dark horse

but anybody's ball game right now.

[caledesi]

2. Run Howard Run! (surprised kinda about Clark) nt

[quinnox]

3. Go Gep!

n/t

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Clark is hurting Kerry

no doubt about it now.

[Speck Tater]

8. Clark is hurting Kerry? I think Kerry is hurting Kerry

He's been coming on too negative and too desperate.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Well I find stereotyping white southerners in pick-ups as racists

is a little desperate.

[Forkboy]

11. Thats good

sadly,that has nothing at all to do with Kerry.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. Sadly, too many Dean supporters overlook such stupid gaffes

in their uniquely uncritical way.

[Forkboy]

22. Maybe

but that still has nothing to do with Kerry.

I've said this to others and I'll say it to you;attacking another candidate is no defense of your own.

[Scott Lee]

25. I think your critical skills need a little honing

In your anti-Dean verve you forgot to analyze his comments enough to support your (unsupportable) accusations.

Even a cursory analysis of Dean's "confederate flag bearing Southerners" comment would reveal that he was talking about getting support from a geographic/economic area that really won the residency for President AWOL.

Now you are free to ignore the South, like you did the last so called election, but then again you are also free to live another four years under the Bush Horror. But hey, at least you got your digs in on Dean, huh?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

35. cursory analysis of Dean's comment reveals a stereotyped description

of said geographic/economic area's residents.... and I do know what Dean meant, and I know what he said. And he said something unnecessarily narrow minded to make his point.

[Justice]

44. StereoTyped Description is the Real Story

I made this point yesterday on DU.

[Capn Sunshine]

54. well, you could have tried looking at it in context

but that would be a stretch if you support Kerry.

[sendero]

45. stop crying in your teacup...

... and get over it.

[livinontheedge]

5. I think it will be a race between Dean and Gephardt.

Dick is from my home state and my husband's home district. He's a good man. I was so upset when he supported the war that I didn't eat for two days . . . seriously.

Dick is probably the strongest candidate we have in the general election but his war vote will cost him the nomination.

The only candidate I can't stand is Weasely Clark. I hate his flip-flops on the war, his admitted lie about the WH call to link Sadamm and 9-11, and the fact that it took him 4 days to decide if he would support the $87 billion. Gephart is on the wrong side of the war issue, but at least he stands on principle and doesn't waffle.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[wryter2000]

7. War vote

I can support someone who voted for the war as long as he backs away from it now. We were all lied to, but it sounds like the folks in Congress got a bigger dose of lies than the rest of us.

Dean's my guy, but Gep's fine with me, too.

[Justice]

17. The only standing Gephardt did...

was next to Bush in the Rose Garden in support of the Iraq resolution, while his colleagues watched him on TV, mouths open wide because he never told them he was going to do it. He was minority leader, yet he felt no need to give his colleagues any advance notice.

I ask you, did Dick sell out his colleagues because he was running for President and wanted the great press for standing with the president?? I think Dick did sell out. His actions shut down all debate on the resolution, when debate and discussion were desperately needed. While the resolution might still have gone thru, we would have had more discussion, more clarification and had more on the record.

You are wrong about Wes Clark and a WH call. That has been debunked eight times over. Read the transcript.

[moz4prez]

34. huh

when did Clark admit to lying about anything?

[newyawker99]

49. Hi moz4prez!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[w4rma]

36. Pundits won't stop spinning Clark's phone call

http://www.spinsanity.org/columns/20030903.html

I don't see any reason to believe that Clark lied about the phone call you refer to.

[paulsbc]

10. Dean vs. Gephardt

Is what it is coming down to. Dean will win, IMO, given his campaign and message with the primary voters, but it is still early to make a clear cut call. I wish the others would drop out and let the 3-4 main people debate for real...

[jsw_81]

12. Gephardt vs. Dean

People would be insane to support Gephardt if it was between him and Dean. We haven't elected a Congressman to the White House since 1880! Governors and former governors, on the other hands, have won four of the last seven presidential elections.

[Justice]

13. Hold On There.... Poll Says Race is Still Wide Open

No candidate can take any comfort in this poll.....

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Politics/election_yearaway_poll031103.html

"The race for the Democratic nomination is itself a mash: The candidates are not well known, not well differentiated and not firmly supported. Just four percentage points separate the top tier: Among registered leaned Democrats, 17 percent support former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean; 14 percent Gephardt and retired Gen. Wesley Clark alike; 13 percent Lieberman. Kerry has slipped into single digits, joining North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, the Rev. Al Sharpton, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich."

"Dean does best among liberal Democrats, who predominate in primary turnout, while Gephardt's best group is moderates. Clark does a good deal better among men (17 percent support) than women (7 percent)."

"Still, among people who have a preference, a paltry 23 percent say they'll definitely vote for that candidate. Seventy-six percent say instead that they might change their minds — and 53 percent go so far as to say there's a good chance of it."

Sounds like the race is wide open (at least among Dean, Clark, Gephardt). Dean's strongest support is from liberal democrats -- we need someone who can beat Bush in the general election - not someone who can win the democratic primary.

[returnable]

14. Interesting point

"Dean's strongest support is from liberal democrats."

As the Doctor has said himself, he is no liberal.

Which leads me to believe that the 76% who say they may in fact change their mind will probably do so once they start becoming more familiar with each candidate's platform.

[Justice]

21. Agreed

on this: "Which leads me to believe that the 76% who say they may in fact change their mind will probably do so once they start becoming more familiar with each candidate's platform." The race is still wide open.

Is Dean saying he is not a liberal is enough for Dean to convince moderates that he is their guy -- without losing the support of the liberal base that supported him because they thought he was liberal (wonder why they did).....

[returnable]

27. It's the nature of the primary system.

Candidates have to run in one direction to get the primary vote, then run back in the other direction to win the national election.

It's not surprising that the leading candidates - Dean, Clark, Kerry, and Gephardt - have to fight off charges of "flip-flopping" on issues. They're all playing the same game.

[HFishbine]

24. Hmm. If that happens

it would bode well for Kucinich.

[returnable]

28. Assuming he stays in the race long enough...

...to change some minds :)

[sendero]

47. or...

.... an alternative viewpoint is that mainstream Americans will support his centrist opinions. Cuts both ways I'm afraid, and the idea that liberals are going to dive to a candidate with 2% of the field upon "learning the truth" is equally unlikely.

[blm]

23. The poll also shows that Gep and Kerry do BEST vs. Bush

while Dean doesn't hold up as well.

This is mlloking more and more like 84 when John Glenn had the best numbers to beat Reagan, but, the primary numbers went to Mondale.

[Scott Lee]

26. Absolutely - three republicans to choose from!

Why wouldn't it be an easier race? Bush v. Gephardt, Bush v. Kerry....the public gets to choose their republican.

Aint that wonderful?

[JohnKleeb]

30. Youre a republican if you vote with Ted Kennedy 94% of the time

I missed the memo apparently. If you look at Kerry's record, you will find it is a good one, I feel that way and I *gasp* am a Kucinich supporter. Dont know who you support personally but it is my opinion that Senator Kerry is a democrat. On Gephardt, yeah hes screwed up in recent years but hes no republican, Ive never met a republican so friendly to organized labor. The man happens to be my grandfather's candiate and while I am disappointed in Gephardt as of late, I have to admit on many levels hes a good democrat, I especially like him on labor.

[Forkboy]

33. I think he's a good man

but an increasingly cowardly politician (but wait,I repeat myself).

[blm]

37. Gep and Kerry are WAY left of Dean

and Kerry's lifetime rating is closest to Wellstone's of ANY candidate. Your comment is INCREDIBLY ignorant of the differences between a candidate closer to Wellstone and the candidate who is actually closer to Bush - Dean, the Libertarian leaning centrist.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

38. take civil unions away from Dean and you've got....BUSH! nt

[mzmolly]

40. Huh, I though he was the next McGovern..

You bashers can't make up my mind.

[Flaming Meaux]

48. Give me a break.

Doc's got at least 50 IQ points on the idiot from Crawford, and I doubt he harbors the kind of odious neoconservative poison the Bushies do. People who support Dean do so because he'll put the national house back in order, not because he supports/opposes lefty issue X or conservative issue Y.

[mzmolly]

42. I take comfort in the fact that Dean has been 'solid' for many months

now and the others are all over the place.

But, it aint over till it's over, that's for sure :)

[CWebster]

15. Jeez, don't post this

You know how riled up they get and in no time the Dean bash fest will commense again with indignant cries of racist or draft dodger or Newt fan, etc.

[mzmolly]

41. Oh, I know...gives em something to do.

:shrug: ;)

[kath]

16. Oh GACK, can't stand Gephardt

What a frickin' lame-ass! Would probably have to go to the polls with a clothespin over my nose to vote for him (and would *certainly* have to use the clothespin if Leiberman's the nominee)

[Brucey]

31. I agree.

But Gep is good on some issues, particularly labor, and does know his way around so maybe could actually get some policies enacted. Dean is liked by liberals not because they think he is a liberal, but because he took a clear stand on the war, tax cuts, and deficit before anyone else. Most of the Dean supporters are unlikely to switch.

[spindoctor]

19. Don't get too riled up yet

Quinnipiac University Poll taken last week, shows the exact opposite. 14 for Dean and 17 for Clark.

But Clark supporters shouldn't get carried away yet either.
When asked "what if Hillary Rodham Clinton would run for President?" they both have to eat dust, with a whopping 43% (down from 48% in Juli) for Mrs. Clinton.

[Bandit]

20. Sharpton only one point behind Kerry and one point ahead of Edwards

I find that encouraging. Sharpton has a lot of good things to say and apparently people are listening. I think he is running for a cabinet appointment. I would like very much for Sharpton to be in the next President's cabinet. Maybe Sec of Labor or some such.

[HFishbine]

29. Sharpton has the most to gain from early drop outs

When Mosely Braun and Kucinich drop out, I think Sharpton will get the biggest kick from those voters. It could easily put him past Kerry and if Lieberman's slide continues, Sharpton could find himself in a close fourth place.

[donotpassgo]

32. but...but...I thought Dean's campaign was dead. I just read it on DU.

wishful thinking by many. Dean IS the frontrunner, like it or not.

[Demobrat]

39. The word is

imploding. Just ask Kerry.

[Endangered Specie]

43. Congradulations

to Kucinich finishing dead last, again. Maybe you kucinich fanatics will finally see the light.

even if kucinich won the primary, hed be lucky to get 3 electoral votes against bush

[NewYorkerfromMass]

46. Kerry could use that support transferred his way

and I'm sure he'll get most all of it when the time comes.

[Demobrat]

51. Ummm....

I'm a Deanie. Diehard.

On edit: It's congratulations, by the way.

[Woodstock]

50. what accounts for Gephardt's surge?

he was at 5% in a recent Zogby poll

he voted for the abortion ban, so he is at the bottom for me

[Andromeda]

52. This poll is especially interesting...

Because Gephardt and Clark are tied for second. Whether this will translate into a win for either candidate remains to be seen. Gephardt is working his fanny off to win in Iowa and has been campaigning essentially since 1988 to become POTUS and Clark is a relative newbie on the political scene.

Clark has made the biggest impact in such a short period of time despite the fact that he's passing up the Iowa caucus, along with Lieberman.

There's still plenty of time for a major shift in candidate popularity because the electorate has just recently began to awaken from a long apathetic slumber since the 2000 election. It 's become obvious that Bush isn't the "compassionate conservative" he said he was and that his favorite game is "lets pretend."

It takes extensive training and hard work for a Naval officer to earn his/her wings and Bush the Great (NOT) got his wings playing dress-up.

You have to wonder what took so long for the good people of America to see what's really going on with the squatter in the WH and his imcompetent administration. Make no mistake about it, Bush still has his hardcore supporters who will stick by him even if he continues to say nuc-U-lar instead of nuclear.

There's a steady drip now and that will get louder and louder. Even Rex Reed can't save Bush now.

[Peace_Place]

53. It's Dean and Gephardt

If Dean wins Iowa, don't think he will but if he does the press will hound Gephardt in NH and all he will be able to discuss is what happened in Iowa not the issues. One saving grace is Gephardt is not competitive in NH and losing by 17% or 25% is no different.

Big problem is if Edwards and Clark can stay in the race. If Gephardt loses Iowa, NH to Dean and SC to Edwards or Clark, when does Gephardt win? When will the money run out?

[onebigbadwulf]

55. What the fiz?

Why is Gephardt so high? He's already got the mark of loser on him! If the repuke 'fear him the most' that means he's the last guy we want!!