Is Dean's Campaign Dead Or Not?

[DrFunkenstein]

It is becoming more and more clear that Dean cannot pull away from the pack. There is a strong suggestion that he has a ceiling of support in the party with the rabidly anti-Bush, anti-war crowd of people who read their news on the internet.

The Dean campaign has repeatedly alienated the other campaigns through lies and distortions, creating a backlash that has been swelling since September - and especially since he lashed out at Clark as a Republican.

Further proof comes from the last debate in Detroit, where Dean's final comments aimed only at his own base of activists with no attempt at outreach. Although expected to "mellow out" once he became the frontrunner, he has continued to play to his hardcore supporters.

The effect of this is the notable rise of both venom and gaffes in his speeches. Were he used to compare Bush to the Taliban, or shrug when asked if it was good that Saddam was gone (which will play well in TV ads), now he is comparing fellow Democrats to cockroaches and bringing back the "Bush-lite" comment - to the audible groans of the audience. Hardly Presidential stuff.

Which brings us to electability. Many people register their protest in the polls, but polls don't win primaries. Votes do. And most primary voters are ultimately pragmatic. More than anything else, they want a winner - not a sitting duck. The Governor of a state with a population of about 610,000 people that signed the nation's only civil unions bill and radically opposed the war from its start is the equivalent of a barnside for target practice.

Bush will have about $200 million in TV ads rolling non-stop in 2004, plus a bully pulpit. If Dean can't sit still while Gephardt aligns him with Newt Gingrich, how will he fare against the Rove machine. If he plays it angry, he will play into Rove's hands - kind of like Return of the Jedi. And unless Cheney throws Bush down a steam pipe, that doesn't bode well.

Did I mention that Dean has yet to do well (as opposed to not poorly) at ANY of the debates? I have also yet to see him perform effectively on any of the political talk shows, especially on Sunday morning. It seems that Dean only does well in monologue.

So despite a big media shot during the late summer, and headlines as the frontrunner ever since, Dean has yet to command any sort of credible lead. Considering that most other camps will vote for someone BESIDES Dean first, I just don't see it happening. He's riding a slight bubble now, but we all know what bubbles do best.

<>

A young Jedi in the making? Tron?

[tsipple]

1. Yes. Dean's Campaign is Dead.

Now that we've got that out of the way, where's my checkbook? :-) :-)

[quinnox]

2. Oh no, bets on how long it

will take the Deanies to get this thread shut down for being critical of their glorious leader.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. I Kept Checking For The Kerry Thread

But I think I've made a legitimate point of discussion that goes beyond just poll watching and name calling.

[RetroLounge]

3. Uhm no, but nice try. Thanks for playing...

[DrFunkenstein]

7. How Does This Contradict My Point?

There is a strong suggestion that he has a ceiling of support in the party with the rabidly anti-Bush, anti-war crowd of people who read their news on the internet.

Further proof comes from the last debate in Detroit, where Dean's final comments aimed only at his own base of activists with no attempt at outreach. Although expected to "mellow out" once he became the frontrunner, he has continued to play to his hardcore supporters.

[RetroLounge]

17. "Further proof comes"

no proof at all, just more warped hopes and dreams while your candidate tanks, whomever he is, since you never say anything positive about it, just more Dean Bashing from the desperate...

:boring:

[ryharrin]

23. Where do you see this suggestion?

Are 30+% of the people polled in NH " rabidly anti-Bush, anti-war crowd of people who read their news on the internet?" How about Iowa? 17% nationally? Do you really think that we're that well represented in the democratic party? Why is he leading in states around the country(except the south, where is still doing rather well)?

[theivoryqueen]

5. Why would anyone use the term "dead" on any current major campaign?

It seems counterproductive. Plus it's still so early. I have seen this question repeated several times today, with different Democratic candidates names in the hot spot. What's up with that?

[DrFunkenstein]

10. That's What I Thought To

But then I realized that there may be a point to discussing the inherent contradications in the various campaigns and their effect on the primary and general election seasons.

[theivoryqueen]

11. okay (reluctantly)

but the spin is: even Democrats have trouble deciding if their candidates are worthy and can make it for the long haul.

[Hawkeye-X]

6. Try as you must...

but your rant just went down to the toilet, and into the sewers where the alligator lives.

Dean's campaign continues to be very strong.

He's already pulling away from the pack in New Hampshire, and soon will pull away once the Iowans and South Carolinans have their say.

Hawkeye-X

[returnable]

21. "South Carolinians have their say"

And Clark is way out in front of Dean. John Edwards is the only other candidate polling in double figures.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

Dean still has a lot of work to do. South Carolina is every bit as important as NH in this accelerated primary season.

[ryharrin]

27. dean is still in third place there

And once the national exposure from winning Iowa and NH kicks in, i think he'll be right in it in first or second place. The fact that clark is also doing well isn't relevant to this discussion, as this thread is based on a thread calling Kerry's campaign dead. I think there is no way in hell to argue that Dean's campaign is in worse shape than Kerry's.

[meegbear]

8. It'll never die ...

the cult of dean will live on! Longer than Jesus! Longer than God!

[Nicholas_J]

9. A real problem is

That no one is paying attention to the portios of the pollthat say NONE or would not vote when certain candidates are at the top of the polls. This is more reflective of the disatisfation with the candidates on top, than it is those who are the middle or bottom,or in those polls that indicate OTHER as a selection.

In most cases this indicates in some polls that as much as ten percent of the registered democrats polled will vote for NO one (usually one percent) and anywhere from 6 to nine percent for either NONE or OTHER, which translated into a loss of as many as two million voters for the democratic candidates in 2004. These figures have stayed fairly firm for the last 6 months.

[HFishbine]

24. 6% to 9%

Really? Do you have a source for that?

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[E_Zapata]

13. He was great on Leno

He did the party good that night.

And a good leno appearance translates into votes (unfortunately in this weird society we have).

I agree with everything you have said, but I don't get the part where you are buying into Dean being "radically against the war" and him being 'anti-war." It's clear as day, Dean would have done the war differently. That's not anti-war.

And I think his ceiling is based on issues like that -- for every supporter he gains now, he loses one, and that keeps him flush where he's been for the last month or so.

The more he is forced to delineate his views, the clearer picture people have of him, and he isn't an ideal DEMOCRATIC candidate. Far from it......to the right, that is.

And, you're right, he doesn't have the intellectual/emotional disposition to fight the Rove machine. Talk about a blood bath. wooooo. Now, if he were more forthright about his exact positions and didn't waffle around the way he does in his over attempt to kind of blur the policy details just to get people to support him based on the IMPRESSION he gives, then I think he could build a solid base. Problem is, he doesn't want to put his policies under the microscope and LOSE votes in order to gain them. He's trying to play all sides of the street. And that makes me think: WTF? I want a president who above all believes so passionately in what s/he proposes that s/he will scream the details from coast to coast. I want someone with that much conviction.

I just feel like Dean is running a campaign and that he isn't really a man running for president. Like it's just a competition. I am looking for more substance...more conviction, more passion. Lord knows we need a strong horse in this race.....a horse that doesn't just want to win for winning's sake, but wants to win because our country needs the opportunity to heal.

Ohhhhhhh, that would be Dennis!!

[DrFunkenstein]

22. Not Really Radical - Appears Radical

I should have made the distinction. For people who say he's centrist (and he is) that doesn't make him seem moderate. He speaks in very polarizing language. That makes him seem radical to a country in search of security.

Dennis is much more liberal, but he speaks in ways that embrace people rather than setting up harsh "us and them" dichotomies.

[JohnKleeb]

33. On Dennis K

He and I myself have turned my dad from apathenic to caring again. He may not win this presidential primary but he has made a difference to me, my dad, and others, and thats important no matter what. My dad right now is mailing out Kucinich flyers to friends and family. He is really liking this man as am I. I believe it was Shaw and later RFK who said some men say why and I say why not, I agree with that, why not, why not peace, why not the America we so need, and why not. Polls and money raised are the last thing I look at, its the message that got me supporting DK in the first place. I have so much admiration for this man. He comes from the heart and I love that. He remembers where he came from and I think thats just the most beautiful thing, I love it when he talks about Ellis Island,
"Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shores. Send these tempest-tossed, to me. I lift my lamp beside the golden door".

I am willing to support the democratic nominee but I have much admiration for this man.

[ryharrin]

37. Do you actually think that Dennis's shrill rhetoric is more

palatable to the average person than Dean is? I agree with most that Dennis says (except the "get the troops out now" stuff, I'd like it if it wouldn't screw over the iraqis completely.), but I still can't stand him.

[E_Zapata]

38. Yeah, Dennis is a uniter type

And the truth of the matter is he speaks from a place of truth and conviction and that just doesn't normally create burrs under folks' saddles as a rule.

Like the difference between Bill Graham, Sr. and Pat Buchanan. Both fundies. But, Graham......now there's a man who preaches what he truly, truly in the depths of his heart believes. Buchanan? a bunch of hot air and a lot of self-doubt. What do the two men manifest? Graham - folks follow him or they don't, but I think he has across the board respect. Buchanan? breeds contempt...

Just that law of nature that you manifest that which you put out.

[caledesi]

14. And Paul McCartney is dead too. nt

[mandyky]

15. Keep hoping and wishing

Dean's MeetUps grew by 2000 this weekend.
Wait til they see him on Rock the Vote on Tuesday.
Also, stay tuned for the day after MeetUps (Thursday).

[tsipple]

16. Hey, DrFunk, What's That Photo?

I have no clue where that photo is from. Any details? Thanks.

[Forkboy]

18. Flame bait

and not even an original one at that.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

19. maybe you're right

but maybe you're wrong. How advantageous will having been an anti-war candidate be a year from now? Is this war going to get more popular or less popular? I think the nation will move toward Dean, rather than Dean having to move toward the nation.

[DrFunkenstein]

26. I Don't Think Being Anti-War Is The Problem

But Dean's anger makes him seem unstable to people who want security. You can be against the war and not polarize people into "us and them." I think even pro-war Americans have their misgivings, but Dean keeps them at shoulder length as the opposition.

It could work as a strategy. I don't think it will.

[HFishbine]

20. Yep. Dead

And I guess that Bush war chest you warn about will have to go unchallenged now. Too bad, but thanks for bringing it to our attention.

[hey2370]

25. Shorter DrFunkenstein

I hate Dean. I really, really hate Dean. I don't know if it is his looks or his accent or his hair. Maybe I resent him for having so much support at DU. Or for calling out the national party. Whatever, it is not important to me why I hate Dean, I just do. But many others don't share my hate, so I have to come up with seemingly rational arguments to convince others to hate Dean as well without admitting my intense irrational feelings, as they might discredit the rationality of my argument.

;)C'mon, people. Make your vote, support your candidate, whatever. But can we quit bashing these guys? Except Lieberman. Man, that guy....:D

[DrFunkenstein]

31. Actually, A Dean Supporter Gave Me The Idea For The Thread

And I don't hate Dean. Clearly, I don't like him. That's after months and months of campaigning. It is not out of jealousy. If it were Clark, I would be cool with it, because I think he's a nice guy. I don't think Dean is a nice guy. Does that mean I hate him? Not really. If he wins, I'll support him and do whatever needs to be done to eliminate Dubya. Until then, I think my observations stand.

[Jim Sagle]

28. This thread ain't nuthin' but shit.

[RetroLounge]

34. Sure it is.

It's shit plus a whiff of desperation...

:puke:

[Gman]

29. Dean has peaked way too soon...

which is the worst sin possible in a campaign. I noticed it about the time Clark got in the race.

Dean is as good as he's going to get. It's only downhill from here.

[CMT]

30. Dead?

"He hasn't pulled away from the pack"--has any candidate? especially Kerry.

Who first attacked Clark as a Republican?--Lieberman and Kerry. Compared to what they said Dean has been pretty mild.

Electability? he has done as well against Bush as Kerry and Clark in some recent polls.

Thank you for pointing out that he signed a civil unions bill and opposed a fundamentally flawed war. I don't quite see either of those as a liability.

You point out that Bush will have $200 million. From what I've seen Dean is the only candidate on the Democratic side able to be somewhat competitive in the money race.

Performing well at debates. That is a matter of opinion. While I've said some other candidates seem to be smoother I don't think Dean has performed sub-par in any debate and certainly in any recent debates. What he has done which some of his supporters have criticized is "tone down" during debates from his stump performance.

As far as attacks, Dean has put up for weeks, even months of attacks from nearly every opponent, especially, Kerry, Gephardt, and recently Sharpton and I think their "Newt Gingrich lite" attacks or "anti-black" attacks are far worse than what Dean has inflicted on any of them. That is also an opinion.

As far as Dean not expanding his lead--first, it is a highly competitive democratic race with several good candidates. Yet, when Gen. Clark entered the race in September, Dean was overcome initially from the good General. Now, he is moving up again not only in national polls but in several state polls. Case in point: New Hampshire, California, and Arizona which last month had Clark leading and now shows Dean with an 8-point lead in a poll released a couple of weeks ago.

I would also say that you can't be too sure that Dean isn't the second choice of some of these candidates. I've seen polls out of New Hampshire and Iowa which indicate that he is the second choice. I've worked seven saturdays at Farmers Market in Madison, Wi and while not a scientific poll I've talked with supporters of other candidates such as Kerry and Clark who say that Dean is there second choice.

I know on DU where passions seem to get out of control at times that might not be the case. I also don't worry as much about people who support Dean not supporting the eventual democratic nominee as I do about some of the consistently anti-Dean people not voting for him if he is the nominee. I don't mean to imply you Doctor, because you while you are certainly anti-Dean you also seem to me to be someone who will eventually be ABB.

[DrFunkenstein]

39. At Least You Give An Actual Response - Thanks

"Who first attacked Clark as a Republican?--Lieberman and Kerry. Compared to what they said Dean has been pretty mild."

They questioned him. Dean actually lied to undercut Clark's entrance. Clark said repeatedly that he was bipartisan, and Dean said he was a Republican.

"Electability? he has done as well against Bush as Kerry and Clark in some recent polls."

Actually, Dean is usually last when put directly against Bush.

"Thank you for pointing out that he signed a civil unions bill and opposed a fundamentally flawed war. I don't quite see either of those as a liability."

1. He did almost no work on the bill, and was very hesitant to deal with it at all.
2. That won't matter in the general elections. Several articles have come out saying that gay marriage will be the "aboriton" of 2004.
3. I think it is noble to oppose this war. My problem is Dean's polarizing style.

"While I've said some other candidates seem to be smoother I don't think Dean has performed sub-par in any debate and certainly in any recent debates."

That was my point.

"I think their "Newt Gingrich lite" attacks or "anti-black" attacks are far worse than what Dean has inflicted on any of them."

No one called Dean "Newt-lite." He was said to have agreed with Newt on a crucial issue, which was true.

"I would also say that you can't be too sure that Dean isn't the second choice of some of these candidates."

Honestly, I'm not sure. That is clearly speculation.

"I also don't worry as much about people who support Dean not supporting the eventual democratic nominee as I do about some of the consistently anti-Dean people not voting for him if he is the nominee."

I hope it is obvious that I would vote for Dean. I'm not going to bite my nose. But I have heard many - many - Dean supporters say their vote is non-transferable. That's endearing.

Again, thanks for the actual debate rather than mudslinging. Although we disgree on some key things, I have a feeling we are not that far apart in our feelings about stuff in general (like rational dialogue).

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ScreamingMeemie]

35. I am locking this thread...

Please refer to the rules for posting in GD:

5. You may not start a new discussion thread in order to continue a current or recent flame war from another thread. The moderators have the authority to lock threads in order to contain flaming on a particular topic to only one thread at a time.

Thanks,
MrsGrumpy
DU Moderator

[jsw_81]

36. Yep

Dean has raised more money than all of his competitors, he's in the lead (or close to it) in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he's routinely attracting five or ten thousand people to hear him speak wherever he goes. He's toast.