November Election Predictions: Post them right here!!

[CMT]

Four big contests

Philly Mayor

Kentucky Governor
Mississippi Governor

and on Nov. 15
Louisiana Governor.

What are your predictions?

Here are mine: A week ago I thought maybe we would lose all the Governor's races but i'm revising that.

Dems win Philly Mayor, Mississippi Governor (due to Musgrove's hard-hitting ads against Barbour on NAFTA and a huge African-American turnout.).

GOP wins Kentucky Governorship--due in large part to unpopularity of Gov. Paul Patton (thanks to his womanizing ways).

Louisiana Governorship--I'm getting more confident here too and think Blanco can beat Jingl.

[HFishbine]

1. Hoggard

in a suprising upset, defeats an incumbent and wins a seat on city council.

on edit, at Goober's request: Greensboro, NC. Will report tomorrow.

[goobergunch]

3. City? (n/t)

[goobergunch]

2. Mine:

Philly: Street wins with 52%-55% of the vote.
Kentucky: Fletcher wins with 55%-61% of the vote.
Mississippi: Barbour wins with 50%-51% of the vote. (I'm not real confident about this one...it's a TOSS-UP)
Louisiana: TOSS-UP. I'm not calling this one yet.

GPR will be up shortly.

EDIT: See posts #4 and #7.

[CMT]

4. wow!! 57-63% in Ky!!

that will probably pull in the GOP candidates for Sec of State and Auditor who have tight races as well. I hope it isn't that decisive.

[goobergunch]

7. I'm being pessimistic there

That should probably be downgraded to 55%-61%.

:spank:

*goes and edits post*

[childslibrarian]

5. Street will win in Philly

Johnnie Ashcroft's attempt to subvert the election having caused the opposite effect--go Philly!!!

[tom_paine]

12. But that's what we thought about the Attempted Coup of 1998!

That the Repigs had exposed themselves for the swine they were and that it wasn't possible that Gore would not get elected because of it.

(come to think of it, Gore DID get elected, didn't he?)

But Uncle Karl and the Bushevik Capos think longer-term and deeper than that.

[DealsGapRider]

6. I'm actually rooting for Haley Barbour in Miss.

His election will be of great value in 2004. What better figure to rally minority voters? And the Dem running against him is basically a Republican in Dem clothes anyway. All you have to do is point to that fat, pork-rind eating racist and ask minorities, "Think the GOP is for you?" Boom, election won.

[Hawkeye-X]

8. my prediction

A stunning Democratic sweep of all states mentioned, setting the stage for a giant Democratic sweep in terms of Presidential, senatorial elections.

I also predict next year will be the setting of a Democratic majority of the House. Nancy Pelosi will be kicked out and another Speaker of the House will be installed.

[Zynx]

13. I wish I had that optimism.

Here's my predictions:

Kentucky: Fletcher-52 to 53%
Mississippi: Musgrove 50.5%(Yes I am being precise)
Philly: Street in a blowout
LA: Jindal 53%

[NewJerseyDem]

15. That's ridiculous

It is possible that the democrats could sweep, but very unlikely. All the races are very close but we would need a lot of luck. I don't see a great sweep in 2004 though. I best we will win narrowly.

Why do you want Nancy Pelosi gone though? She is basically one of the most liberal members of the entire House of Representatives. Who do you want to replace her?

[nayt]

21. eternal optimist

weren't you making similar predictions last fall?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. Here's Mine:

Philadelphia: Street 55% / Katz 45%
Missisippi: Musgrove 51% / Barbour 47%
Kentucky: Fletcher 52% / Chandler 48%

[tsipple]

10. Two Out of Three Governors

Musgrove and Blanco, probably.

[NewJerseyDem]

11. My predictions

Street wins with about 56%
Musgrove wins with about 50%
Fletcher wins with about 56%
Jindal wins with about 53%

Also, the NJ state legislature is up and that is all that really matters because New Jersey is the most important and best state in the country. It has probably been more expensive than the other campaigns anyway. The democrats spent $3.3 million on one state senate campaign!!!!!

State Senate: 21 Democrats 19 Republicans
State Assembly: 42 Democrats 38 Republicans

[PROGRESSIVE1]

17. Louisiana votes on November 15th and...

Jindal will most likely loose!!!

Blanco can get about 54% and win it!

[Peace_Place]

14. My Guess

Philly Mayor D 54-57%

Kentucky Gov. R 57% that will hurt some down ballots, too.

Alabama Gov. The last poll I saw was registered voters 41/40 Dem. Registered versus Likely voters usually means R 53-56%

Louisiana Gov. D 52%

[quaker bill]

16. We could do well

maybe even a sweep. The Bush coattails are getting a bit heavy. The kick the bums out sentiment is growing, but this race is too early to gain full advantage.

I think Street's a lock. Anyone doing battle with John Asscroft has to look like a folk hero right now.

On 2004, I think the Iraqi's will have much more of the same to say. More Americans seem to be listening every week. The Iraqi opinion of the Bush* administration is becomming quite loud and clear. This will make for rather tough sledding for Bush* and the Republicans.

If this stuff keeps up and we present a strong slate of candidates, we could be looking at some new majority leaders.

[burr]

18. the fate of our two-party system is at hand..

Philly Mayor...Democratic

Kentucky Gov...Repuke

Mississippi Gov...Repuke

Lousiana Gov...??? this one will decide whether or not John Breaux runs again, we can only recruit so many new candidates in a single year!!! With Graham retiring, having Breaux leave could make this a disaster!

[althecat]

19. Watch out for the machines.......

Kentucky - DREs
Louisiana - Levers/Dres
Missisipi - Optical Scans

...and - in case you start thinking I have a one track mind.... Wasn't the Philly Mayor the one who the FBI was caught spying on for no good reason... and could this indicate some monkey bizness there too...

[Bucky]

20. "no good reason"

There wasn't exactly "no good reason" to spy on Mayor Street. Ashcroft may have saved his corrupt tooshy. Hopefully the bad PR will force him to clean up his act. But citizens have got to get more involved in policing their pols or we'll keep on seeing crooked Democrats as well as crooked Republicans.

[Lexingtonian]

22. they're pretty clear

Kentucky - Fletcher(R) by ~15%
Mississippi- Barbour(R) by ~4%
The Christian Right and Bush fetishists will be out in force. Musgrove just doesn't have enough to show for his years in office, and Chandler plain didn't have enough of anything in hand to be a serious force.

Phil. mayor - Street(D) easily
Very D town, and he's got all the major constituencies sufficiently pleased.

Louisiana- Blanco(D) by ~5%
Voters just don't seem to go for young and smart in Louisiana, it seems to me, and not being from one of the Louisiana ethnic groups ultimately costs Jindal. But this is the hardest call of the bunch.