A cool look at a hot poll: Why the outrage?

[Paschall]

By now most of you probably have seen the... how many are there?... seven or eight flaming threads on the poll ordered by the European Commission on EU citizens' opinions about Iraq and world peace. I want to revisit the issue from another angle, please. Because--beyond the official Israeli reaction to the poll--the actual findings have been given little attention. And they are bad news for Shrub, Aznar, and Blair. Very bad news. Having read the whole poll, I now suspect that the Israeli outrage was to some extent orchestrated to shield ShrubCo from this news.

I'm going to quote some of the poll findings I found most interesting. I hope the mods will bear with me; I'm quoting in extenso, but this information is only available in PDF.

I ask that you folks please refrain from all discussion of the Israeli issue here; that discussion... sigh... continues in the Foreign Policy forum. Otherwise, this thread will be locked, and that will make me :-(

The full poll report is now on-line at:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/public_opinion/flash/fl151_iraq_full_report.pdf

Now to the meat, or tofu substitute (except for the headlines, which I've added, what follows is copyrighted material...paid for with my tax euros, so I'm taking the liberty ;-)):

The Iraq Invasion

68% of EU citizens believe that military intervention was not justified.

Only 29% of respondents believe that this military intervention was justified, of which a mere 7% are totally convinced of this.

The United Kingdom and Spain are the only Member States with national troops in Iraq. It is particularly interesting to note that even in these ally countries, the majority of citizens seem to be against the decision taken by their government to support the United States in its decision to intervene by force. In Spain, 79% of citizens believe that this action was not justified (of which 61% answered “not justified at all”) and in the United Kingdom 51% of citizens are of the same opinion.

Management of Iraqi Reconstruction

At the European Union level, 58% of citizens would prefer that the management of reconstruction in Iraq would be entrusted to the United Nations. The United Nations was chosen over and above the provisional government in Iraq (44%), the European Union (25%) and the United States (18%).

Also worth noting is that of those who cited the United Nations for the role of managing the reconstruction in Iraq, only 14% would want the United States to also participate. On the contrary, of those who selected the United States, 46% would wish for the United Nations to partake in the management of the reconstruction. This would lead us to believe that citizens are calling for collective as opposed to unilateral management of reconstruction in Iraq, with the United Nations superseding as the representative of this collective action.

It is worth noting that more British citizens would rather see the provisional government in Iraq manage reconstruction than their allied partner, the United States, chosen by only 20% of respondents. On the contrary, the proportion of Spanish respondents who would entrust the management of the rebuilding of Iraq to the provisional government is lower than in any other Member State, at 23%.

Less than one in four citizens in each Member State would entrust the management of the reconstruction in Iraq to the United States.

Financing Reconstruction

65% of European Union citizens believe that the United States should finance the rebuilding of Iraq, over and above the United Nations (44%), the provisional government in Iraq (29%) and the EU and its Member States (24%).

The combination of responses for who should finance Iraq ... shows that the majority of those who believe that the United Nations should finance the rebuilding of Iraq, are of the opinion that the United States should also pay for the costs incurred as a result of the war, being the case of 54% of respondents.

It seems that while public opinion does not want the United States to manage reconstruction in Iraq, they believe nevertheless that they should pay for it.

Security

43% of European Union citizens place their trust in the United Nations together with their peacekeeping forces in guaranteeing security during the reconstruction period. Next in line, follows the United Nations alone, being chosen by 19% of citizens. According to public opinion in the EU, the United States should not be entrusted with the task of guaranteeing security - only 6% of citizens selected the US and 5% the US and some of their allies.

As the only two ally countries with forces in Iraq it is worth noting that only 4% of Spanish respondents and 6% of British respondents believe that “the United States and some of their allies” should guarantee security.

Humanitarian Aid and Contribution of Troops

82% of EU citizens are in favour of their country’s reinforcement of humanitarian aid in Iraq.

When asked about their view on the sending of national peacekeeping troops to Iraq, European citizens appear somewhat divided with 44% of respondents confirming that they are in favour of this and 54% indicating that they are against.

Transition of Power

EU citizens do not want the United States to manage the transition to a sovereign Iraqi government. Six in ten European Union citizens want the United Nations to take responsibility for the establishment of a democratic government in Baghdad. 44% prefer the provisional government, 23% the European Union, while only 14% want the US to manage this transition.

52% of those who believe that the United States should manage the rebuilding of Iraq would rather trust the United Nations or the provisional government in Iraq than the US in managing the transition to a sovereign Iraqi government.

In each Member State the vast majority of citizens agree that the European Union should support the re-establishment of an Iraqi government in Iraq as quickly as possible. The agreement rates range from 93% in the Netherlands and 92% in Luxembourg to 77% in Sweden.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

81% of citizens believe that the European Union should play an effective role in resolving the peace process, of which 36% “totally agree”. Only 16% of citizens disagree with the EU playing an effective role here.

86% of EU citizens believe in the importance of political and cultural exchange with Arab countries.

The Perceived Threat of Terrorism in the EU

55% of European Union citizens feel that the threat of terrorism in their country is strong, a result which demonstrates the trans-national nature of this phenomenon. A minority of 43% feel that this threat is weak.

The average result at the EU level masks marked differences across Member States in the extent to which citizens perceive this threat to be strong. The United Kingdom and Spain, feel most threatened by terrorism, with 76% of respondents in each confirming their belief that the threat is strong. This high level of fear could be due in part to the fact that both countries are allies in Iraq. Or, perhaps some of this fear could be explained by ETA terrorism in the case of Spain, or republican and royalist terrorism in Northern Ireland.

The only other Member States where a majority of respondents perceive this threat to be strong are Italy (62%) and Germany (52%).

The Bonus Question: Threats to World Peace

The United States

The United States is perceived to be the greatest threat to world peace in four Member States namely, Greece, Spain, Finland and Sweden.

Syria

Netherlands is the only country where a majority of citizens perceive Syria as a threat to world peace, and here this corresponds to the views of 51% of respondents. In all other Member States, a relative majority of citizens are of the opposite opinion and do not view Syria as a country threatening world peace.

[HFishbine]

1. Math Check

"Six in ten European Union citizens want the United Nations to take responsibility for the establishment of a democratic government in Baghdad. 44% prefer the provisional government, 23% the European Union, while only 14% want the US to manage this transition."

60 + 44 + 23 + 14 = 141 ???

[Paschall]

2. Multiple answers

"For this question, respondents were given the possibility of giving multiple answers. In looking at the combination of responses given by respondents, ... it is worth noting that if we take respondents who stated that they would prefer the UN to manage the transition to a sovereign Iraqi government, a relative majority (37%) also selected the provisional government in Iraq to manage the transition to a democratic government. Conversely, of those respondents who would entrust Iraq’s provisional government with its transition to a sovereign state, a relative majority (50%) would also wish for the United Nations participation in its management.

"Also worth noting is that of those who cited the United Nations for the role of managing the transition to a sovereign Iraqi government, only 11% would want the United States to also participate. On the contrary, of those who selected the United States, 47% would wish for the United Nations to partake in the management of reconstruction and 44% the provisional government in Iraq. This would lead us to believe that citizens are calling for collective as opposed to unilateral management of the transition to a sovereign Iraqi government, with the United Nations superseding as the representative of this collective action. This conclusion is identical to that revealed in the previous question dealing with the management of the reconstruction in Iraq."

[rucky]

3. DUers and EUers are in agreement

on most of this. Shrub. Get a clue.

One thing I am on the fence about is the security issue.

EU wants to send their people in w/ the UN, but keep the US out for security. Why the either/or decision? The UN-led forces should include US and EU troops IMO.

Maybe i don't understand how UN Peacekeeping forces are assembled.

[Paschall]

4. My understanding of this issue

Humanitarian organizations, as a matter of policy, refuse to rely on a beligerent force (for example, the US) for their security, because they--and their personnel--cannot afford to be identified with any party in a conflict. That's pretty well understood in the EU, I think.

Besides, we are also aware that US troops are simply not trained for police work. French troops, on the other hand, are; though most Americans think of gendarmes as police officers, they are in fact members of the French armed forces, as are the firefighters in our major cities. Of course, that's only France; I'm not really sure how domestic security is organized in other EU countries.