Zogby: Dean expands national lead; Clark slips

[pruner]

Dean Expands National Lead of Democratic Presidential Hopefuls; Clark Slips; One in Three Voters Still Unsure, According to New Zogby International Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has expanded his lead over the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls, moving away from a late September tie with retired General Wesley Clark.  Dean now receives 15% from 558 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide, and Clark has slipped slightly to 10%.

Polling was conducted from Zogby International’s Call Center in Utica, November 3 – 5.  The margin of survey error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Error margins are higher in sub-groups.

Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt and Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman are tied for third at 9%, slight improvements over September polling.  Massachusetts Senator John Kerry remains at 7%, followed by civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton (4%), and North Carolina Senator John Edwards (3%).  Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich and former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun are tied with 2% each. 

One in three (34%) Democratic primary voters remain undecided on a candidate, down slightly from September undecideds of 43%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=755

[CMT]

1. good news for Dean, but with the undecideds

still a wide open race.

[tsipple]

20. Duplicate Thread: Continue Here

Link to Thread about Zogby Poll

[pruner]

21. NOT A DUPE

different forums…some people only read threads in one or the other

[VolcanoJen]

38. We do allow inter-forum duplicates.

Just FYI. The moderators do allow duplicate stories in different forums, as in this case.

:-)
VolcanoJen
DU Moderator

[robsul82]

2. Hmm, big margin of error...

...good news for Dean, but the polling was between 11/3-11/5, before this whole flag fiasco happened (well, prior to the Rock the Vote debate), so. Fingers crossed.

Later.

RJS

[pruner]

3. 11/5 was yesterday

today is 11/6

[dajabr]

4. And the Debate was Tuesday...

Tomorrow is Friday...

:crazy:

:-)

[robsul82]

5. Oh, geez.

OK, good news all around except for the margin of error, which the Clarkies will jump all over. But yay! :)

Later.

RJS

[dajabr]

7. See that...

You picked up a whole week just by posting in this thread!

:-) :bounce: :-)

[RandomUser]

6. VERY huge margin of error -- Clark could be leading Dean

I'm not saying that he is. But it's possible in this margin of error.

The margin of survey error is +/- 4.2

At the two extremes, it could be Clark 14.2%/ Dean 11.8% or Clark 5.8%/ Dean 19.2%.

Not a very informative poll, since either one could be leading within the margin of error.

[robsul82]

9. Seeeeeeeee?

:)

Later.

RJS

[RandomUser]

11. You were a full post ahead of me!

Darn these slow fingers. :)

[robsul82]

14. Hehehe...

...;)

Later.

RJS

[bushisanidiot]

28. Dude, The Flag Thing Was on 11/4, Right In The Middle of This

polling. Dean may have gotten a positive bounce out of the issue by sticking to his guns.

[robsul82]

29. But DUDE...

...it's kinda obvious from the ensuing convo that I forgot what day it was, lol. ;)

Later.

RJS

[TLM]

30. The flag thing was on the 4th wasn't it?

Looks like another lame cheap attack on Dean pushed his numbers up again.

[Hep]

8. MOE MOE MOE!

Calm down people, it's just a stupid poll of what a coupla hundred people might do. We know the margin of error. It's just a damn poll!

[Capn Sunshine]

10. Margin of error or not Clark should be polling higher at this point

the fact that he's not I blame directly on the ineptitude of his organization. A constant state of decline/no gain is not a good thing and the organization better throw out all their access rules and find ONE GUY to be in charge instead of ten running their own little feifdoms

[beyurslf]

17. Capn Sunshine

I have to say as I was scrolling down and reading the posts, I stopped with just the top half of you button showing. I thought we had a ush supporter inflitrating here! Glad I scrolled down just a bit more before I went off :)

[returnable]

26. The other side of that coin

It seems to me that Dean, with his vast amounts of cash, his year+ of campaigning, and his media-supported "front runner" status since mid-summer, should be be polling way ahead of the pack at this point.

Instead, he's still battling within the margin of error.

Why hasn't he cracked 20% by now?

I mean, after all this time, money, and "groundswell" of support, shouldn't he be beyond the mid-teens by now?

If this poll indicates anything, it's that this race is still very much wide open.

[TLM]

32. Because there are still like 5 or 6 guys polling well...

Getting 15% of a 6 or 7 way race is pretty good.


But he's right, Clark got a bump as the new guy, but as that wears off, he is not showing us anything but evasive answers and platitudes.

[returnable]

35. "pretty good"

Perhaps, but he's hardly running away with anything.

As for Clark, if you believe he's "not showing us anything but evasive answers and platitudes," well, then, it's even more embarassing that Dean can't pull away from him.

[Eloriel]

40. Because few people are tuned in to politics yet, that's why

I love these numbers, but it's still very early for people to be tuned in to politics. The "Undecideds" reflect that, IMO.

Eloriel

[incapsulated]

12. Meh

I'm sick of polls. I'll wait for the "final answer" (the actual primaries). Polls have been wrong when taken right before a primary, too. I think a lot of people make up their mind in the voting booth.

Whatever will be, will be.

[Scott Lee]

13. So much for "the flag flap hurt Dean"

Clearly it didn't....hell, it might have helped him!

You know I think Wes Clark has a lot of good points about him. He's not a shameless phoney like Gefart and Kerry. But he just doesn't have Deans....I dunno.....Je ne se quoi? Spark. Dean is coming across as an underdog that's emerging as the common citizen's champion in a time that politics has never been more provincial, elitist and disenfranchising.

He is, as the press says, the Timing King.

[DeepModem Mom]

15. Democratic death wish?

As I just posted in the poll/topic re. who the Republicans would least like to run against:

I think polls today, if correct, show Clark's numbers among Dems slipping. If we don't nominate this man --and Dean along with him, would be my choice -- I give up.

It's like what Al Franken wrote about Gore. God: I gave Gore the most votes -- that worked for other people. God to Dems: I gave you a smart, handsome, liberal four-star general to run against AWOL, post 9/11, in the middle of a disastrous war -- but you didn't nominate him.

[jsw_81]

23. Clark will be veep

So don't worry.

[dfong63]

24. a handsome 4-star general who raised money for the repubs

... praised Reagan, waffled on the IWR, didn't register as a democrat until he was called on it by reporters, never ran for office before, his campaign in constant screwup mode...

you're trying to tell me this is God's gift to dems? baloney.

now Dean, on the other hand... a handsome DOCTOR who's consistently the first of the pack to criticize BUSH on every front, has balanced (not-too-liberal) views, elected governor and re-elected, has run a brilliant innovative campaign raising a record-breaking amount of money from the grassroots instead of from fatcats...

now THAT's more what i'd call a gift from God.

[DeepModem Mom]

27. I agree with everything you write about Dean, especially

the handsome doctor part, and have posted additional admirable things about him. I don't agree with your negative opinion of Clark, but respect it. (I live part-time in Vermont, so have observed both Dean, and Jim Jeffords -- whose party-switch I celebrate each year on Jeffords Day.) I think Clark and Dean are both gifts to our party. One reason I would pick Clark for the top of the ticket is because his military background, which I understand is a problem for some, might draw some independent voters in a time when issues of war and national security seem important. I just want to get Bush out of my White House.

[TLM]

33. Don't forget he worked as a lobbyist for acixom, CSIS, and another

military contractor that's name escapes me at the moment.

Clark is the status quo power elite MIC war profiteer's last attempt at keeping one of their own guys in the white house.

And clearly the base isn't falling for it.

[FrenchieCat]

48. TLM with the same old story.......

But then I can show this about Dean.....

http://www.hermes-press.com/HDean/dean_republican.htm

[ozone_man]

16. Isn't this the best National poll yet for Dean?

Granted the margin of error is significant, but this is great news. Dean, the people's candidate, $77 per contributor! I wonder if other candidates even advertise their average contribution. Probably Kucinich would look even better IMO.

[robsul82]

18. Special K's average contribution...

...is probably whatever change he gets back when he orders breakfast. ;)

Later.

RJS

[dobak]

19. This is simply a poll of name recognition...

Lieberman polling 1% behind Clark? Not.

Edwards at 3%? Not quite.

[tokenlib]

22. We'll see when people start paying attention...

It is still largely name recognition. Most people will not start paying attention until after the holidays(except in IA and NH). That may be frustrating for us political junkie types--but it is the truth.

I would still bet on Clark.

[TLM]

34. And who is in the lead in IA and NH?

Where the people are paying attention now?

The fact is true that most people do not pay attention... yet Dean already has 130,000 people meeting up every month to write letters and organize... he has almost 500,000 signed up on the website. And the election is a year away.

If Dean has this many people paying attention this early... how many more will he have when the rest start to pay attention?

[Code_Name_D]

46. And who is skipping Iowa?

Yep, its none other than Mr. Declare Victory and Runaway himself.

[Starpass]

25. One thing about primaries

..you never know who's going to crawl out of the woodwork. I'm a Clark or Kerry supporter but I'm keeping my eye on someone else. Gep may do more than you think. Never underestimate "old" organization; it can be as powerful as any "new". I think this can of worms may end up being a patch work quilt as the first primaries come down, thowing the rest of the country into considering a whole bunch of candidates because all of a sudden a bunch seem strong and at the same time weak. This puppy may go down to the fat boys with the cigars brokering the deals in the backroom at the convention. If it goes that far, they might come out an announce that the Democrats have decided to field no candidate against Bush because if it goes tht long, it'll be too late to mount an attack.

[slinkerwink]

31. WOOHOO!!!!

Excellent news......that must be mystifying the other campaigns! All the attacks just serve to make Dean stronger....

[HFishbine]

36. Clark Supporters

Posting on DU does nothing for your candidate. (Just as it does nothing for any of the others). If you don't like what you're seeing in these polls, expend some of your DU energy in the real world.

Write a letter in support of Clark to your local paper, get a Clark flyer and go door-to-door, print up some yard signs. Do something - anything. Sitting here whining does nothing. As Dean has shown, a people-powered campaing can be effective.

YOU are Clark's people, power his campaign. You are not helpless. Pretending that Clark's popularity (or lack thereof) is the result of the media, the Deanies, the stupid voters, sloppy polls or whatever is a cop-out.

So tell me, what are you going to do for Clark in the next 24 hours?

[DeepModem Mom]

37. Working for my local Clark group most of today and tonight....

But you're right about posting here --

I've posted at DU a few weeks now, but posted today in support of my candidate for the first time, while being supportive of and praising Dean at the same time, and set off "baloney," "screwup," and "war profiteer" volleys in this thread. I understand, though, that Clark, for some, is a special case, who has no place in the Democratic field.

[HFishbine]

39. Alright!

Good for you and right on!

DU is a great place to learn and practice and roll ideas around, but it's no place to campaign. You are doing the right thing by getting away from your computer and volunteering for your candidate. Good luck to you!

[xultar]

42. You are right...at first I liked DU now not so sure....

It's not the community I thought it would be. Open minded discussion about the issues. Screaming I don't mind but the amount lack of respect for other DUers is awful.

I'm doing my thing for the General. I suspect that there are many more out there that are as well. They keep quiet though. They stay above the bullshit, just like General Clark.


Clark supporters have heart. THE BEST IS YET TO COME!!!!

[SammyWinstonJack]

47. "THE BEST IS YET TO COME!!!!"

I like that! Kinda reminds me of "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow." :-) Welcome to DU, btw. :hi:

[GumboYaYa]

41. Bbbbuttt, Dean's peaking, how can this be?

:)

[JackRiddler]

43. Honestly...

Why do people waste so much time worrying about week-to-week poll results?

I'll say it again. The most significant result of any opinion poll is the group who refuse the poll (averages about 70 percent).

Dean is obviously ahead, based on the numbers of people working for him directly, on the fundraising, and on the media attention he's grabbed (which of course indicates media choice at least as much as a groundswell for Dean or anyone else).

But I wonder if 50 percent of the population at large can name more than one or two candidates.

[calimary]

44. Hey, guys, why can't we be happy that AT LEAST SOMEBODY

among the good guys is building more momentum?????

Okay, it just happens to be the guy I like. But, look, we've got to stop doing the rethugs' legwork for them!!!! Let's find a way to get ourselves united around the idea of getting bush out of OUR White House!!!!!!!! C'mon, people. We have to stop giving the enemy more ammo. Every time we turn around, the rethugs have won AGAIN. We simply MUST reverse that!!! Or else, as The Angry Liberal just wrote, we risk becoming the Chicago Cubs of politics.

http://www.theangryliberal.com/11-06-03.htm

[Guaranteed]

49. Seems like some

are dead set on bringing down the ship.

:shrug:

[livinontheedge]

45. The Dean steamroller has left the station.

It's starting to look like an overwhelming Dean victory.

[RetroLounge]

50. Wasn't Jed Bartlett a longshot in the primaries too?

Oh, wait, this is a REAL Poll?

Then Good News for Dean!

But the MOE is still there, so it's still a tight race.

Just shows we have many good candidates...

[hedda_foil]

51. The South, The SOUTH! He's leading in the South!

Dean is the leader in the South with 13%, followed by an 8% tie of Edwards, Lieberman, and Sharpton


This is HUGE!