Is the support for Clark on DU representative of the offline Democratic...

[SeveneightyWhoa]

..community?

Because he's been neck-and-neck with Dean here on DU for a while now, and it seems as though his popularity is not only growing, but SKYROCKETING here (as witnessed in the multiple 'I'm now supporting Clark' threads).

Yet the polls, and media, don't even seem to be representing him as a frontrunner and if you didn't spend time at DU, you'd think Clark was right in the middle of the pack, far behind Dean and Kerry, and even Edwards and Gephardt.

Is he? Or is he right up there in national, 'offline' support? What are his actual chances of becoming the nominee, if you look at his state-by-state chances, etc?

[La_Serpiente]

1. It would be pretty hard

if Clark didn't get the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements. However, I still think he can pull it off.

The primary is still a while away. I mean, there is Christmas and Thanksgiving, and everything else.

So Clark can make up for his lost time.

[incapsulated]

2. The latest Zogby

Has Dean with a 5% advantage. With the margin of error, it's still pretty close, though. State-by-state is a different issue. I think Clark is running better in the south, Dean is leading the northeast and doing well in Iowa.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[_Jumper_]

16. That is amazing

Given the fact that Dean has had much more media exposure and has spent $12 million already. When Clark starts to spend money and his message reaches the people he should surpass Dean. The race will be a close one between them, though. Dean's Confederate flag comment should cost him some votes of African-Americans and of white Southerners who think Dean's stereotype was condescending.

[Evanstondem]

3. Clearly it's not representative

Clark is still in the running, but most polls have shown him going down, not up. He is doing relatively well in some of the Southern states.

I suspect that many Dean supporters have moved to other websites where the discussion is more civil. I'm personally spending a lot of time at the Daily Kos.

[Renew Deal]

5. You mean DailyDean

;)

[Evanstondem]

6. Like I said, the discussion is more civil there

More discussion and less flaming.

[SahaleArm]

9. It should be civil.

It's pretty much becoming BlogForAmerica II:).

[SahaleArm]

7. Should be renamed.

I'm still posting though, somewhere between the pro-Dean rants;).

[Renew Deal]

4. I know people on the ground in NY.

Coworkers, friends and others. My coworkers are really high on him. And it's several of them. One of my friends is a Deaniac. Another likes Clark because of Mike Moore. I think that you will see the commitment and professionalism of Clark supporters is very good.
I forgot to mention some republican on the train the other day.

[E_Zapata]

8. I can't explain it........

The guy is so clearly without RHETORIC that he is just standing out like a real STATESMAN.

I sure as hell don't want a mulitary industrial complex dude as prez. But these statements and press releases the last week or so.....are so friggin refreshing, all I can say is.....IF it comes down to Dean vs. Clark for the dem primary, I am going for Clark.

Kucinich is my main man - but Clark is proving to be quite a statesman.

[FrenchieCat]

19. Then you may be interested in reading this article.....

It's really a good look into Clark's politician soul i.e., lack of one.
Just came out today:
http://www.timesanddemocrat.com/articles/2003/11/07/news/news1.txt

>snip
"This afternoon I visited with the family of Darius Jennings, a courageous young man who gave his life this week in Iraq," Clark said.

"He is the third graduate of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School to give his life for our country in Iraq. It's clear that Darius was a caring man who loved his family and his country. We are all grateful for his service and we should honor it," Clark said

"I was overwhelmed," said Harriet Johnson, Jennings' mother. "He came not because he's running for president, but on a more personal basis because he's a retired Army man himself."

"My first time meeting him, my spirit agreed with him," Johnson said. "He's a nice person. He shares the way I feel because he was at war and he came back alive (although injured) and my son was at war and he came back dead."

Jennings was one of 15 American soldiers who were killed when a helicopter crashed outside Baghdad. News reports say it was shot down by a missile.

"I saw that helicopter on television when I woke up Sunday morning and I looked at it and I just knew ..." Clark said, his voice trailing off.

"I've spent a lot of time dealing with tragedy in the United States armed forces and I know what it looks like and what it feels like," Clark said.

"I've seen and been with so many families who are grieving and it just breaks my heart. ... My heart goes out to them."

[E_Zapata]

21. Thanks for posting that Frenchie

I just read the LONG GD thread on a transcript quote by Clark about changing the focus on the military industrial complex. Very impressive.

There are two ways to choose a candidate:

1. on their POLICIES alone; and

2. Their statesmanship (if that's a word). Honestly, there are few statesmen today. You've got Byrd, he's a statesman. Clinton was one. And, well, even if some policies don't mesh with my policy preferences, I can overlook it. Like Clinton's Don't Ask, Don't Tell exec order. That was bad -- but he possessed the statesmanship to take our country to a better place.....to really lead us.

Problem is: I don't know if Clark's statesmanship is Clinton-driven (I am SURE the big dog is helping him).

But I will keep my eyes and mind open about Clark.

[tedoll78]

10. Here's how I think he might do it:

I think there's going to be Dean, and the anti-Dean candidate (just to be clear, I don't mean anti-Dean as though Dean is bad). I have a hunch that Clark will be the anti-Dean, and that how successful he is will depend on when the other candidates withdraw from the race. Gep, Edwards, Lieberman, & Kerry - the earlier these candidates withdraw, the better Clark's chances against Dean get.

But why Clark as the anti-Dean and not any of the others? He's going to be the first to win a primary against Dean. Dean will win NH and IA, and Clark will win SC - putting him in that position. Gep and Kerry will drop with Dean's first two victories, with significant portions of their supporters going to Clark, I'd bet. If they hold-on and go through more primaries, it leaves fewer and fewer states for Clark to win against Dean with Gep and Kerry people newly behind him.

I think that's Clark's plan, although I also think he's trying his best to out-raise Dean this quarter. The next candidate to topple the current fundraising king will become the new king. Remember when Dean got a positive flurry of media attention at the end of the 2nd quarter? If Clark rivals Dean in fundraising in the 4th quarter of this year, the media could cast this as a Clark versus Dean race even before the first caucus vote is cast.

We'll see..

[La_Serpiente]

12. You want to know who the anti-Dean candidate is?

I think it is Dennis Kucinich

Check this out:

http://kucinich.us/doctorisout.php

[Renew Deal]

13. That's harsh.

But not as bad as Gep's website.

[Eloriel]

15. Clark will be hard-pressed

I think to rival Dean in fundraising. However, even if he does, there'll be a significant -- and important -- difference: it won't be from individual small donors, like Dean's.

Eloriel

[SahaleArm]

18. Somewhere between Trippi and Reality.

The Dean camp has claimed 200,000 contributions at an average of ~$75 dollars made up the bulk of the fundraising. What was the total number of unique contributors? The Seattle Times/PI has a public search database that I scoured with 10 different puget sound zipcodes. What I found was individuals were making $50-$100 donations, 3-4 times.

[Bertrand]

20. you should email

your findings to both those papers to see if they will launch an investigation.

[SahaleArm]

23. Why?

Nothing wrong with pumping up perception; it's just political gamesmanship. I'm sure, fundraising wise, all the candidates would like to be in Dean's shoes.

[Justice]

26. Important Point - Playing With Statistics

Which reflects perhaps a bit of "untruth" about Dean's support - 200,000 contributors.

While it may be "technically" correct, it is being cute with the truth - and we keep saying that is not okay. How is what Dean is doing any differnt than Bush's playing with the unemployment numbers by not reporting the true unemployment rate.

How about reporting the way web traffic is reported?

total # of contributions - total hits
average of all contributions
total of unique contributors
average of contributions by contributor

[VolcanoJen]

11. Well, you have to remember how late he jumped in, too.

The official campaign has really been pulling it togther. I've noticed an absolute surge of organization that has been truly impressive. I've been contacted by my local and state Clark offices, numerous times, just for entering my email into one of the Draft Clark sites awhile ago.

The MeetUps are really starting to take off, and you're just now hearing from people who are beginning to plug into this race. I think he got a late start, and had some serious bugs to iron out in the beginning as far as his campaign was concerned, but he's rebounded in substantial ways.

Don't ever forget that Clinton was not the frontrunner going into the early primaries. People nationwide won't get truly geared up about this race until after Christmas... can you believe it's almost here?

So, SevenEighty, I think that there is growing, "real-world" buzz and support about Clark, in my experience anyway, and he really has nowhere else to go but up, especially considering his late entry.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

17. It should be obvious now on DeanUnderground.Com

That Dean's support, and people like me who are sympathetic to Dean supporters but not Dean himself, are not representative of the Democratic party in general nor the United States voting population in general.

It's going to hurt us badly if we don't recognize this fact and deal with it. Fortunately, all we need to do is focus on progressive populism, and we will win easily.

[Dr Satan]

22. the spam effect

I noticed the increase of Clark posts such as latest breaking news Clark watered his lawn or Clark brushed his teeth. There is no correlation of Clark spam and actual support.

[Bread and Circus]

24. Your point is well taken...

though it is not spam.

For months we have been asked for text and links
to let people know "what Clark stands for"
and "where is he on the issues..."

Now that he has an established campaign, we are bringing
the information to DU as requested.

People are seeing how bright and Statesmenlike Clark really
is and it making them think and wonder.

It's Democracy. There's no harm in it.

We all have a couple of months to vote.

I encourage everyone to keep and open mind and research
Clark and then come to some conclusion on their own.
I hope they will like him and I will try to frame an
argument here in his support.

I am glad people are starting to get past the uniform and
come to know Clark the man.

[Justice]

25. Lag Between DU Polls and General Polls

Clark has just gotten started, and then he got sick (which affected him for about 10 days).

I think the polls reflect opinions formed over a couple of weeks - so there is a lag between getting out your message and people forming their opinion. I think what we are seeing today reflects the absence of Clark in the media 2-3 weeks ago.

My mom, in NH, a Clark supporter (after I brought her to hear him speak) said where is Clark - he is not in the news. Well, he was sick, couldn't speak.

I would like to see polls in two weeks, three weeks, to see how clark is doing.

I also think Clark's 4 point plan announced yesterday will have an effect because people will be upset about the growing number of deaths/helicopter crashes in Iraq and asking more questions about how we get out of there. They will be looking for answers/ideas - and Clark has both.

[mmonk]

27. Yes he lost a lot of air time when he was sick

just as he was getting momentum. Its a matter of getting back out there now and taking advantage of any openings he can. I feel he's the best person for the job (obviously) and I feel if people start listening to him again and many for the first time, they will be impressed.