An Algorithm For Determining The Winner Of The 2004 Election

[Don_G]

It covers every Presidential election through 2000. The past selection looked like it was off, but it predicts that Dean/Clark or Dean/Rockefeller could easily slam Dimbo into the 1700's where he belongs.

Link: http://members.bellatlantic.net/%7Evze3fs8i/air/Elections.htm

[paradisiac]

1. is it open source

I'd like to look at the algorithm. ;)

[mzmolly]

2. Is there talk of Dean/Rockefeller?

;)

[JailBush]

3. AL GOREithm???

ALGORithms versus BUSHisms. Cool.

[Darranar]

4. One problem...

Gore won.

[trotsky]

5. Exactly.

Clearly more people around the country AND in Floria voted for Al Gore. If not for the ballot mess in FL and intervention by the Whore Court, Gore would be in the White House. So their Al-Gore-ythm should have shown Gore the winner to be taken seriously.

[elperromagico]

6. Okay, let's say SCOTUS had allowed the recounts to continue

The FL legislature was prepared for that eventuality; they were ready to appoint their own slate of electors regardless of the outcome.

The cards were stacked against Gore in Florida; Jeb had assured Dubya that FL would go Republican, and he was prepared to do anything to achieve that result.

One of the most important things we must insure in '04 is that the election does not hinge on Florida.

[Democrats unite]

8. Well it's going to so don't hold your breath...

I as a Floridian will do what ever it takes to stop a 2000 fiasco from happening again, but it will take a concerted effort.

[elperromagico]

9. Not if the Dem candidate

wins over 270 electoral votes in other states.

[wuushew]

7. This formula sucks

The number generated does not give an accurate indication of the degree of victory or whether this predicted win factor refers to the popular vote or the electoral vote. Please note the formula if viewed in a non-binary way almost breaks down in 1960,1964,1976,1980,1988 and 2000.

The factors I feel determine electability in 2004 are as follows

(A)incumbancy
(B)appearance
(C)balanced ticket a.k.a southern strategy
(D)prior office
(E)anger factor
(F)politcal leaning

[elperromagico]

10. You may be right

but some of the factors you list are entirely subjective. It's very hard to judge appearance or anger mathematically/scientifically.