My Primary Season Predictions

[tedoll78]

I'm taking off my Clark-Hat for this one. Coincidentally, when I was a Dean man, I also thought that this is how things would play-out.

Fourth quarter fundraising: Dean leads (in the >$20 million region), with Clark second.

Iowa: Dean wins. Gephardt drops-out. And even if he were to stay in, where would his next victory come from? It'd be a while. Needless to say, the race in Iowa should never have gotten this close for him. He took Dean too lightly in the early days of the campaign, and now he's paying for it.

New Hampshire: Dean wins, with Kerry and Clark in a tight dogfight for second. Either way, Kerry drops-out; this would be too big a loss for him to continue.

South Carolina: If things continue in this manner, Clark wins. Edwards drops-out. Clark, being the first candidate to beat Dean in a primary, and being the second-place money finisher in 2003's final quarter, all of a sudden begins to get more media focus. With Edwards, Kerry, and Gephardt out, he could potentially become the alternative to Dean - depending on where their supporters go.

At this point, what happens is murky to me.

It's easy to brag that Dean would have enough momentum to win the whole thing (I've claimed it before), but I seriously don't know where Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards' supporters will go once they drop-out. Will they vote with a winner (which is what often happens), or will they combine to stop Dean? Another big question: where will the 35 to 40% undecided go? And why are they still undecided at this point, other than simply not paying attention?

Either way, barring some serious gaffe or a past indiscretion revealed, I'm predicting a Dean-versus-Clark race. If the race becomes close and bitter, I'm also predicting that the winner will choose the loser as the VP nominee for party unity's sake. Perfectly fine by me - I like both of them TONS! :)

[dkf]

1. You know, it would be really sad if Dean and Clark spent all their

primary $ beating up on each other.

If they are the last 2 standing, I hope they just decide to become a ticket and save their $.

[tedoll78]

2. I've noticed..

that they seldom attack each other. I hope it stays that way.

[elperromagico]

3. That seems like a likely scenario

I imagine that Moseley-Braun will be out before New Hampshire. Kucinich will probably stay around a bit longer. Sharpton? He's unpredictable; I can't tell what he might do.

If Edwards is losing Southern states to Clark, his primary argument (I'm the only candidate who can win in the South) is shot. If Kerry is losing in the Northeast to Dean, he can't stay in for long either. Lieberman won't be in it long; I'm sure he can sense that his campaign isn't working. Gephardt... well, he basically has to win Iowa. I sense that the race will eventually come down to Clark and Dean.

Then again, perhaps I should feign an air of indifference; after all, I don't even get to vote in a primary until May.

[JCMach1]

4. I agree on clark vs. dean

However, there is enough time for some serious missteps by either candidate (as last week's Dean flag flap showed).

Things seem to be jelling around Dean at the moment though (union endorsements for example). With the possible exception of Gephardt supporters, I think that Dean will benefit most from the dropouts.

I think the nomination will be all but wrapped-up by mid-March.

[economic justice]

5. Longer than that

"I think the nomination will be all but wrapped-up by mid-March."

A case can be made for regional candidates all doing well.

Iowa: Gephardt
New Hampshire: Dean
South Carolina: Edwards

In the above scenario you have a LONG campaign with primary win trade-offs all the way to the convention with as many as four candidates still viable. The cards have to fall right early for this to happen, but it could. If Dean wins in Iowa and New Hampshire both, the momentum will be great. I still don't rule out Gore being urged into the race late due to lack of fire for the current crop. If Gore announced shortly after Iowa that circumstances have forced him to reconsider and enter the race ("the stakes are too high") he could still be on the ballot in most primary states. I don't think it will happen, but I don't rule it out either as he has too much popular support.

[chaska]

6. my two shiny new copper pennies.

CMB needs to stay around to blunt Sharpton in SC (1/3 black).

I see Kerry supporters going to Clark (both ex military and similar styles).

Edwards suporters will go to Clark. His only appeal is his Southern roots. Clark is stealing Edwards' support already.

Hate to say it, but I really see Gephart supporters also going with Clark.

But it's not a certainty that it's over even if Dean wins all the primaries (he won't). See the article someone posted last night. Someone post that again, I need to see it.

[TexasPatriot]

7. i'll disagree

just for fun. i think what you posit is certainly within the bounding bands of probability - but I have a couple things to point out. Assuming no campaigns just implode between now and Iowa...

1) the primary season is a lot tighter - i think a lot people will stay in a couple extra weeks just for the hell of it, there wont be an exodus after iowa or nh. it doesnt cost that much to just stay in.

2) gep will get enough delegates in Iowa that any win by dean will be worth little with regards to delegate count. Not only that, but i have a feeling a lot of sub-15% stations in iowa will band together and go with Gep to keep the race open. Iowa is going to be really hard for Dean because there are so many candidates.

3) NH - i dont think Clark gets up into a dogfight for 2... I think he'll show at 3, but with so many others still in the race there's no movement.

4) I dont think you'll actually see people drop from the race until post Feb 3, and in all honesty if Edwards or Kerry do well on Feb 10 in Virginia or Tenn they'll stick till March 2. I think Dean/Clark will both do so well on March 2 that they're the obvious candidates - and we'll get our first inkling of how the others on the 9th (esp since Texas has theoretically moved onto the 9th with Fla, Miss, and LA). That's when we see how Dean does.

5) There are enough candidates, and enough superdelegates, that this thing will be close to brokered if not brokered.