* wins unless...

[Hawkeye-X]

http://members.bellatlantic.net/~vze3fs8i/air/Elections.htm

Hawkeye-X

[Wednesdays]

1. * wins unless...

we get off our collective asses.

[curse10]

8. LoL

that's my thoughts- screw algorithms

[SlavesandBulldozers]

2. my algorithm came up with the exact same results

Dean/Clark for victory

[Renew Deal]

6. Clark\Dean works too.

[ShimokitaJer]

3. unless Bush uses nuclear weapons in combat

according to the previous study

http://members.bellatlantic.net/~vze3fs8i/air/pres2004b.html


Just to be sure everyone knows where this is coming from, these are both from the Annals of Improbable Research. It's a joke, people.

[lancdem]

5. Ah, you're right

Just saw that in the upper left-hand corner.

[lancdem]

4. Fascinating

[LoneStarLiberal]

7. Incomplete But Interesting

An incomplete formula but an interesting idea.

It's fairly well established that background isn't the single deciding factor in Presidential elections although it is important. Particularly for incumbent chances, economic conditions play a significant role as well.

I'd like to see this model tested head-to-head against some of the more accepted quant forecasting models from Presidential studies. I bet it might out-perform some of them but I also feel it would be defeated by others.