For Dean/Kucinich supporters

[Doctor_J]

Can you please do me a favor? Look at the 2000 electoral map and tell me which red sates will turn blue in 2004 with your guy atop the ticket. I understand and laud your idealism, but next fall's election is really crucial, and my guy will put every red state except Texas in play. Also, what sort of coattails will your guy have? It would be nice to pick up a couple Senate seats so as to actually begin to undo some of the damage done over the last 4 years. Can Dean or Dennis help with that?

[Hep]

1. What is it

exactly that gives your guy these super powers, which apparently evreyone else lacks?

[La_Serpiente]

2. Being from the South

gives you a pretty good advantage.

[rucky]

5. Even a VP slot is not enough for the South

Their guy has to be at the top of the ticket. Lloyd Bentsen.

Clark/Dean to win.

[CMT]

10. it sure helped Gore

eom.

[last1standing]

3. Can you do some legwork and see how all three of these guys are polling?

I would be curious to see something more than a generic statement without any fact to back it up.

Show us something substantial and you just might get some converts. Until then, I'd say this is nothing more than a vanity post to see your own name in a headline.

[Doctor_J]

6. Mostly anecdotal, but

Clark is polling extremely well in SC, and one of our Okies here on DU stated flatly that Wes is the only Dem who would have a prayer in his state. I am extrapolating to other smallish, poorish, Southern states.

[CMT]

13. recent South Carolina poll

has Clark with 17% and Edwards at 10% with Lieberman with 8% and Dean and Gephardt tied at 7%--hardly an overwhelming lead for Clark, with Edwards, Lieberman, Dean, and Gep all statistically tied for second.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

[ShimokitaJer]

14. The importance of the southern block is a myth waiting to be destroyed

and nobody does more to perpetuate it than the southerners themselves... particularly those much maligned southern liberals.

Keep telling us that everything is a code word for "race" as far as the south is concerned. It might just keep us from looking at all the jobs lost in the south over the past couple of years. Keep thinking the whole southern region is filled with simple people dreaming simple dreams. They can recognize when they're being lied to and all they need is a decent alternative to Bush. Keep telling us that they'll never vote for a northeasterner. What a wonderful way of guaranteeing they'll never have the opportunity to do so.

Past trends can be used to predict future trends, but with a source size as small as a dozen presidential elections, nothing can be predicted with any certainty. But feel free to keep helping those southerners feel like they're the ones with the key to this election. It makes the rest of us feel oh so useful.

[liberalcapitalist]

4. none, and neither will Clark

He will be smeared as a Clinton cronie.

If WINNING by any means necessary were truly the objective, then John Edwards should be the candidate.

I am a Kucinich and Dean supporter, btw

[Orangepeel]

7. ohio, and possibly Florida

"My guy" has the advantage of being able to generate intense enthusiasm from many people who are new to or returning to the political process. In my little corner of Florida, we already have more people willing to volunteer for Dean than we had working for Dem candidates in 2002, even while most political activists are still on the sidelines.

I don't think that we can win with the kind of traditional media driven campaign that establishment-backed candidates will run. We need lots of money and a strong media campaign, of course, but we also need lots of bodies walking door to door and making personal phone calls.

Some people are turned off by Dean, but many more are strongly and positively affected (witness the crowds and the meetup participation and the number of small donors). He can attract supporters who can GOTV. That will give him coattails.

[Padraig18]

8. My guy can deliver some of these:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=690713

[CMT]

9. I don't understand why you all think Clark is the win all

I think he can win, but these constant questions about Dean and Kucinich unable to win are annoying. Right now most polls show all the leading candidates within the margin of error vs. Bush--including Dean. Some even have Dean doing better than Clark or as well as Clark in their polls and in key states. For instance a Marist University poll has Dean losing to Bush by 8-points while Clark is losing to Bush by 19-points.

I think any of our nominees can win.

Now as to your specific questions the following states can be won by Dean if he is nominated imo: New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado. I think Dean also will run well in Florida.

[Ficus]

11. Gosh!

I better stop supporting Dennis now that you've told me he's unelectable.

[Melinda]

12. Electoral Vote Demographics:

Is it states you seek or electoral votes? Some current electoral demographics (with thanks *cough* to the GOP and Moore Information):

Democratic Base
California 55
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
Washington, D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

Total electoral votes = 183

Democratic Leaning/swing states

Iowa 7
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10

Total leaning/swing electoral votes = 87

Total Base and swing electoral votes = 270

Republican leaning

Florida 27
Missouri 11
New Hampshire 4
Ohio 20


From the link above:

A recent article by David Brooks left readers with the distinct impression that Republican pollsters are all of the opinion that Howard Dean cannot possibly beat George Bush. We regret that he didn’t check with us first, as it is our belief that Dean has the potential to be a formidable candidate who could give the President a very difficult race.


The conventional wisdom that has some Republicans giddy about a potential Dean candidacy is not only misguided, it is counterproductive. Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of “empirical” sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time.

[Doctor_J]

15. I'm sorry too

but you have made my point for me. Arkansas, OK, SC, and Arizona are not listed, which I assume means that they are considered safe red states. I believe that Wes would put these in play, and move MO, OH, and NH from "Rep Leaning" to "Dem leaning". Hell, if Cleland is his sidekick, GA might even be up for grabs.

[Melinda]

16. lmao here!!

You made me laugh so hard I snorted coffee all over my keyboard, LOL!!!

I recently moved from GA to CA... I am one of those who actively supported Max Cleland in my Atlanta suburb (despite his support for the PatAct, grrrr), but I digress.........

I was one of those "RobGeorgia" folks, and I will always believe that my vote was electronically altered (stolen). My point is simple -- none of this carrying on about which candidate can deliver is gonna mean diddly-squat, darlin', so long as the GOP -through Diebold, Sequoia, ESS, and the rest- have total control over how our votes are "counted".



HAVA remains in full force and effect.

Unless they are stopped, the hanging chads debacle of 2000 is gonna seem like a fond memory after 11/2004.

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/index.htm

http://www.linkcrusader.com/vote_machines.htm

[youngred]

17. Dean can help a lot with that

but he is not my candidate unless he wins the nomination.

Dennis is my candidadte because he says things exactly the way I see them. he doesn't stand a chance I don't think BUT I think he sends the right message to the democratic party and it is my way of voicing my displeasure with the DLC bent the party has taken of late. He IS my candidate from now until Jan 20, 2005 or until he steps down.

[tsipple]

18. Sure, I'll Answer That Question Directly

1. New Hampshire. Clark does nothing special for New Hampshire, but Dean does.

2. Much of the Mountain West. Dean has been to freakin' Idaho three times already, and they like him up there. The Mountain West has a strong element of libertarianism and anti-Washington. They also would be less inclined to trust an Army general. Dean runs stronger there, I'd argue. (There are folks out there who talk about PNAC more than left wingers. They also buy colloidal silver. :-))

3. Oregon. Oregon is a problem with Greens. Dean holds onto Greens better than Clark. (Note this was a blue state, but an at-risk one.)

4. Minnesota. Same reason as Oregon. (Another at-risk blue state.)

5. Wisconsin. Same reason as Oregon. (Another at-risk blue state.)

6. Florida and Arizona. Full of seniors, and Dean is a doctor. Clark is not. Seniors love (and trust) their doctors, and I say Dean gets more votes, ceterus paribus.

That's my short list.