Which states have to go Blue in 2004?

[spooky3]

Edwards has an interactive map on his website. You can click on states to see how their going for Dems would change the electoral totals.

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

It's actually more encouraging than you might first think, especially if you start thinking about possible Pres/VP tickets and what effect they might have.

[La_Serpiente]

1. We're going to need

West Virginia, which I am confident we will get, and maybe, JUST MAYBE Arkansas.

[wuushew]

2. Montana is a swing state in 2004?

(On edit)

nevermind their data is for the last three election cycles

[Democrats unite]

3. I'll take what we had in 2000 plus give us Florida...

Which was ours rightfully & I'll be happy. That will give us 287 & the White House.

[jiacinto]

4. Nevada

nt

[spooky3]

5. Ohio would make a big difference and is a possibility.

[ShaneGR]

6. Ohio...... HAS TO GO DEMm ABSOLUTELY HAS TO

No President, except JFK, has been elected in the last 85 years.... without Ohio.

Ohio is a must.... don't forget Gore pulled out and conceded Ohio three weeks before the election... and only lost by 3 points.

[Don_G]

10. With The Tarriff War Looming

Between the US and the EU/Japan/China/Norway/Switzerland, it looks very likely that Dimbo will have to drop the steel tarriff. If and when that happens, Ohio and Pennsylvania is very likely to go Democratic in 2004.

I think more countries will jump on the bandwagon and pressure Dimbo further and in areas he hasn't thought of yet.

[elperromagico]

12. Perhaps more importantly

No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio; if Bush is losing in Ohio, it's good news for us.

[AntiCoup2K4]

20. Remember, Diebold is "committed to delivering Ohio" to Junior

Just like Jeb was committed to delivering Florida in 2000. I wouldn't pin a lot of hopes on Ohio unless they use REAL voting systems and not Diebold Electro-Fraud terminals.

[ShaneGR]

24. It doesn't look like the SOS office is going to pick Diebold

As I understand it, the SOS office picks three types of machines that the counties can buy. SOS is well aware of the problem, and has stated they are weary about Diebold.

[Orangepeel]

7. There are a lot of ways to win

1. We win Ohio.
2. We win Florida.
3. We win Arizona.
4. We win Missouri
5. We win Nevada, West Virginia and New Hampshire

Of course, all of these scenarios require holding on to all of the states Gore won.

[ShaneGR]

8. Turn Louisiana blue...... TIE!

Interesting.

[Silverhair]

9. Good map. n/t

[Wednesdays]

11. Our position is rather good...

Take all the states that went for Gore in 2000, and add ANY TWO states (except Alaska, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming).

:bounce:

[spooky3]

14. Yep, that's good--and ONE state would do it if OH or FL or TN.

[Philosophy]

13. Tennessee

Narrowly elected a smart, pragmatic Democratic governor last year over an imbecile Republican whose entire platform consisted of how much he worships Bush*. Now Governor Bredesen is accomplishing alot to turn their economic and budget mess around and the people of Tennessee are really pleased with him. His endorsement of and campaigning for the eventual Democratic nominee would definitely swing Tennessee into our column.

Even if all the other states went the same as in 2000, we would win 271 to 267.

[spooky3]

15. that's great news, thanks.

[msanger]

16. Texas stays red

Outside of that, with 2 million Americans united against BFEE, and a candidate whose willing to stand up to bush, it looks like a sea of blue to me.

I live in VA, which hasn't gone blue since LBJ. And I'm going to do whatever it takes to make it blue again. And alot of the deaniacs here feel the same way.

[interceptor]

21. Virginia won't

Virginia has the largest military concentration in the country, and most of them change their residency to VA. Its also strong in defense industry - its going to stay red I'll bet.

[Mattforclark]

23. What if Clark is the nominee?

He might be able to sway VA? He at least has a better chance than anyone else.

[spooky3]

25. I think there are two other conditions in VA that make it tough

One is that there remains a very conservative state capital and rural vote. These populations offset more liberal areas around Tidewater (except VA Beach) and Northern Virginia.

Another is that there has been rapid growth of McMansion and smaller new-house communities in the outer suburbs of DC (e.g., the farther out part of Northern VA). These are populated by Republicans for the most part. Of course, * brought a lot of them to the area in 2000 and they are still here. Liberals who work in/near DC tend to choose Maryland or Arlington/Alexandria (and Arlington can't grow because it is surrounded by the river and other suburbs).

I would think that a lot of the military folk have been rethinking their politics given the current state of the war, but I'm sure many have not.

[alcuno]

17. Illinois will be solid blue.

I actually have hope for Indiana and Ohio this time around.

[tritsofme]

18. Someone can refresh my memory, how many electoral votes are needed

to win the election?

[spooky3]

19. 270, I believe

[Mattforclark]

22. Arkansas + New Hampshire

New Hampshire was only lost last time by 1%, and that was with Nader. It is surrounded by blue states.

If Clark is the nominee, there is a good chance he could win Arkansas. And then there's Clinton. Make sure he goes a'campainin.

Those two states would give a narrow victory.

Colorado could also make the race a tie, which would be bad because the house would vote Bush back in again. And thne... another disputed election, it would be terrible... That's why we need to win.

[dusty64]

26. I played around with the map

and if jebbie steals Florida again, but New Hampshire and West Virginia go blue its a 269-269 tie. Any guesses what would happen then?

[wuushew]

27. Bush would win...

by virtue of the House of Representatives choosing the winner in the event of a tie.