How to win the south???

[jeter]

I need some additional information from those of you (smarter than me) who are privy to such information.

But there are five groups that may make up the new Democratic majority in the Southern United States:

They are:

1) suburban-middle class voters, especially women. This group seems to be trending Democratic right across the nation, and I see no reason why that wouldn't be the case in the South as well.

2) working-class/poor whites. This groups is often what we refer to as the "redneck." Many bring up stereotypes of this ignorant white man with a bent for racism. But asides from their support for guns and opposition to "big government." This group would most naturally fit within our coalition. They need health care, education and jobs - three issues that made them vote for us in the past and will again if we decide to stop patronizing them.

3) African-Americans. This group is solidly Democratic. But often it is the case that we a) take them for granted; and, b) they don't vote in large numbers. We have to do a better job registering this bloc of voters, then getting them out to vote. We also have to 'police' various polling sites where intimidation is often used to prevent African Americans from voting.

4) Senior Citizens. Through out the 1990s many seniors have moved from industrial states to the warmer climates of the south. This group trends Democratic. They support our policies on Health and Social Security. We must identify them and get them out to vote.

5) Military voters. This group includes: Veterans from previous wars, current enlisted men and women, and their family and friends. With the cut backs to Veteran's hospitals and benefits. Coupled with the horrid pay and benefits of enlisted soldiers. Not to mention, the ongoing war in Iraq and no solid plan. This group in my view is ripe for the taking.

These five groups represent the difference between winning and losing in the south. I don't know their proportion to the population (perhaps someone can help me out here) so I can do a more thorough analysis of the numbers. But if we start dividing the GOP base in the south and consolidate our own. The south will become Democratic again. Bet on it.

[TexasMexican]

1. 2nd Amendment.

Protect it.

I guess Texas is technically part of the South, do more to get Hispanics registered and voting.

[HFishbine]

2. Jeter

If it helps your analysis, I think you need to reconsider your African-American category. First of all, they actually do tend to vote in large numbers, at ratios higher than the population in general.

Secondly, while they share many issues because of race alone, they are differentiated by income and rural/urban location which has some effect on their interests.

[Padraig18]

3. A tongue-in-cheek take on that issue...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=696323

[markus]

4. Guns, God and Goobers

First, let me second the above remark. Dean's answer at the recent debate to Kerry's NRA attacks is right-on. We need a reasonable, national floor (restrictions in assault weapons), but state's options on anything else.

I am a stanch seperation of church Liberal. I want to be a party on my local 10 Commandments suit. But, by the same token, this is probably not the time to try and erase In God We Trust from the currency. We have bigger fish to fry.

Lastly, and credit to Edwards (whom I generally don't like), don't condescend. Dean really flubbed it I think with his remark, even if his intentions were good.

What we really need is the sort of counter class warfare argument that was evolving in the 60s but was lost when its leading proponet-the Rev. Martin Luther King--was gunned down.

Personally, I think King would gladly endorse making Afirmative Action class/income based. Such a bold but simple move (while it might alienate some middle class blacks), could disarm a tremendous issue in the South. We would be their party, and not the party of "minorities".

[HereSince1628]

12. Reminds me of "Guns, God, and Glory Made America Great

Let's Keep All Three." That was a sign off interstate 70 in western Indiana in the late 70's.

Somethings don't seem to change :(

[felonious thunk]

5. It's far more complex than that

Though these are some of the groups in the South, they are not nearly inclusive. Until I moved here, I would have thought that it was simple to codify the Southern block, but it really is not. Religion plays a huge part here. There is no solid Democratic block in the South, and that's the reason we have problems there.

There is a solid Republican block, that is kind of the old time landed aristocracy of the South. And the Republicans have done a tremendous job pandering to white voters in the South. Using religious overtones, and implied racism, they are able to convince poor Southern whites that the liberals are boogeymen. The minority vote here isn't a given to the Democrats either. The minority vote is religious as well.

Lastly, there is a large Southern block that votes "Southern". They think that nothing good ever came from any place else, and they aren't going to vote for anything or anyone that comes from the North or West. Take a look at the recent presidents. Since Kennedy, we've had 2 Californians and 5 Southerners (not counting Ford). It's not a coincidence.

[jeter]

7. I love how people say

that things are difficult, so we mustn't even try. The GOP didn't create that bloc overnight. It took time and it will take time with us. But, as a great Democratic President once said, let us begin.

[felonious thunk]

9. I didn't say we mustn't try

I was answering your question. Pointing out that it did indeed take the Republicans a long time, and if Democrats are going to take the South, we have to understand it. And the segments are much more complex than people tend to realize. Among each of the segments you listed above, there are 50 sub-segments that vote all across the board.

[HereSince1628]

6. I wonder about military voters...

You may be completely correct, but its my understanding that something on the order of 80% of them lean to the republican party.

[jeter]

8. Well that's my point

I'm not necessarily saying we are going to win them all. I'm saying look, if we split the traditionally republican base (80% military votes), and consolidate our own, then we will win.

If 80% are voting GOP. If there are, say, 4,000,000 military votes, and we double our own vote totals from 20 to 40%. The that's a gain of 800,000 votes in the south.

If we get more blacks out to vote - even say 65% to 75%, instead of the 50% today, then that's an additional 1,000,000 votes, etc.

You add that up among the 5 groups - if we add say 500,000 votes per group, then that's a 2.5 million vote gain and about a 10% swing for us in the popular vote.

It may not be enough to win the entire south. But if we pick up LA, AR, FL, NC, VA, TN, etc. that would spell doom for the GOP. Both at the national level and in Congress.

[HereSince1628]

11. Well, I agree that one way to allocate effort is in the places

that are least dem (reducing opponents support and gaining dem votes), but at the same time, there is the question of how much effort (time and money) must be spent to achieve that.

Another argument would be that the party needs to try to get the already dem-leaning lurkers to actually come to the polls. The majority of Americans lean democratic, if everyone voted we'd always win.

I would be interested in knowing what the campaign folks feel is easier, converting people or activating the sleepers.

[ACK]

10. Hey man remember in the last presidential elections

The margin for Shrub winning in many Southern states were smaller than in some Midwestern states.

The real key is to get out the vote with African American communities and Hispanic communities. This means addressing core issues these groups have and not pissing on your base voters.

The real key is to get out the suburban middle class vote especially for females which tend to be more receptive to a Democratic vote.

The real key is to push senior groups hard with the message of identifying with their needs and protecting the future of the services they have paid into during a large part of their lives.

No group should be discarded but the above three groups are really important.

Oh yeah, you have to pro-gun and pro-death-penalty or you are screwed in Southern politics.

[SEAburb]

13. you can corral all of them with a clear positive message for

the future of our country. Which is something none of our candidates have now. That is why Clinton did so well in the south.