Who will decide Election 2004

[bryant69]

Do you think it will be the base (of both parties) or the undecided voters? I'm also curious if your opinions changed.

Have a nice day.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[JackRiddler]

1. What about the NON-VOTERS?

A mere 50 percent... who has the best chance of getting them?

What about genuine conservatives disgusted with the new empire?

What about the Greens?

These choices set up a false dichotomy... inadvertantly manipulative.

[bryant69]

4. A non voter

is naturally an undecided. Also so far as I know, no candidate has won by mobolizing those that don't vote.

But perhaps I should have added a fifth category for something else--for those who genuinely believe that Non-Voters, or Greens, or those few Conservatives who trickle over will decide the election. I can't see it myself, but it's possible I guess.

[ShimokitaJer]

9. I agree that there are too many false assumptions here

It assumes three basic groups of voters: Republicans, Democrats, and undecided.

Election 2000 should have thrown all of that kind of simplification out the window. When 20% of registered Democrats vote for the Republican candidate, supporters of a non-Democratic liberal candidate are attacked rather than courted by the Democrats, and the vulnerabily of the election to fraud is exposed so blatantly, arguing over who gets the swing voters is far too simplistic. None of the above categories on its own can win the election.

What we need is:

-an appeal to those former Democrats who voted against the party in 2000 -- Whether they voted for Bush or for Nader, they were obviously turned off by the Democratic party enough to no longer associate themselves with it. This problem is solved by emphasizing the differences between the parties rather than attempting to minimize them. 2002 proved you can't ride a Democrat into office on Bush's coattails, and we need to stop trying. Attacking Bush's policies is a start, but we need to emphasize the difference in our ideologies at every step to retain our base

-a recognition that a swing voter is not necessarily a centrist voter -- The great unwashed masses are ready to see the truth about Bush; they just need someone to show them there's a viable alternative. All of our candidates (except Lieberman -- see the first point) have strong platforms that will appeal to the American people without forcing us to play into the Repubs "soft on crime," "soft on terror," "loose spending" caricatures. Ignore the Repubs' talking points and focus on improving cooperation between intelligence entities, supporting first responders, funding health care, cutting out corporate welfare and tax loopholes, and insuring fair elections. The American people aren't stupid; they'll understand the contrast with Bush without us banging them over the head with it.

It all comes down to CONTROLLING THE TERMS OF DEBATE!!! Don't let Karl Rove and the Freepers decide what the election is going to be about. Talking about gay marriage is a red herring to keep us from talking about the corporations gutting of the economy. We have to tell them what we're going to do when we get the presidency and let them make the case that they can do it better.

As is so often repeated here, almost nobody who voted Gore in 2000 regrets that vote and many who voted for Bush in 2000 regret it. We don't need to change our tune to appeal to the swing voters -- we've already got them. We just need to avoid building up the Republicans to help Bush steal them away.

[Mairead]

11. Right.

The question should really be 'if the contest is between X and Y, who will decide it', because a status-quo Dem isn't going to bring out the people fed up with the status quo, so it'll come down to the people in the middle who really have no allegience at all. Similarly, if the contest is between real change and the status quo, people will have to decide what they truly want.

[Walt Starr]

2. I can't vote in this poll because it is missing the obvious

I believe that once again the felonious five will decide the election.

It worked three years ago....

[grannylib]

3. God help us...

[JHB]

5. Diebold!

:P

[truthspeaker]

6. you left out the Supreme Court

[snippy]

7. Independent voters in swing states.

[bryant69]

8. What is the differnce

Between independent and undecided?

[ShimokitaJer]

10. Until last week I was registered independent and proud of it

But I was far from undecided -- I was going to vote Democrat. Independent is a political affiliation, or the lack of a political affiliation. Undecided means they haven't chosen who to vote for yet, regardless of their own political affiliation.

Not all registered Democrats vote Democrat and not all registered Republicans vote Republican. We need to remember that when we make assumptions about who our base really is.

[bryant69]

12. That's a fair point

And i'm not a professional political analyst so I might be using these words in a non-standard way. But my assumption is that anybody who, all things being equal, is going to support the Democratic candidate (whether officially part of the party or not) is part of the democratic base. And the same for Republicans, of course.

The rest would be undecided.

[snowfence]

13. How true.

I think the independants will decide who wins. The electorate is split 33/33/33.

[ShimokitaJer]

14. By that definition, the independents would always decide who wins. -nt-