Guard are used up in 2004, they will start the draftr in 2005.
From PNAC site:
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Secretary Rumsfeld's response is that we need to turn things over to the Iraqis as soon as possible. Sounds fine in theory or even over the long run. Yet there is no way to train a large, effective and loyal Iraqi force in the time frame required. Despite this reality, the secretary resists any idea that more U.S. troops are needed.
In doing so, Secretary Rumsfeld puts the president's policy of building a decent and democratic Iraq at risk. At the moment, there are only three alternatives: one, we don't add troops and risk not being able both to provide security in Iraq and conduct the kind of counterinsurgency operations required to root out our adversaries; two, we add even more foreign troops only after giving over Iraq's management to the UN, thereby inviting the dysfunction of the UN into the process of rebuilding Iraq; or three, we augment the size of U.S. forces there, increasing even more the overall burden on the American military. Unattractive as this last alternative might be, it is the only dependable way to secure the president's vision for Iraq.
Nor is it impossible. The recent Congressional Budget Office study, which was widely reported as suggesting that we cannot sustain American troop levels in Iraq for much longer without breaking the Army, also makes it clear that it would be possible in the months ahead to add forces if we were willing to call on combat elements from the Marines, the National Guard and Special Forces equivalents. To be sure, this would be a difficult decision for the Pentagon and the White House to make and would call into question previous judgments by the administration about the proper size of the American military.
But the reality remains that, while the situation in Iraq is not as dire as many of the president's most fearsome critics suggest, we do face a serious security problem there. With a sound strategy and adequate resources, it can be addressed. However, it can't be if we pretend the problem doesn't exist or ask others to carry out tasks that only the U.S. and its allies can reliably accomplish.
http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraq-20030905.htm