Which Swing states do we HAVE to win?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

Assume the race is close, just like 2000, with a 50-50 popular vote total. Which of these swing states do you think we must win to get the electoral college total? If you need to calculate, go to http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map to do the math. Note: Adding NH and WV to Gore results in a TIE! ..so once you add those, you have to pick one more to break the 269 vote tie.

Go here to get 2000 vote totals: http://presidentelect.org/e2000.html FYI the closest states were in order: Florida, New Mexico, Iowa, NH, Nevada, Ohio (Note: I do not include states with large Nader percentages such as Oregon and Minnesota)

Which combination of the 'swing states' will we most likely win?

[Padraig18]

1. PA, MI, WI, WV and...

AR and LA are 'possibles', too. I would like to win AZ, NH, MO, OH and NV, but the 6 I listed are states Dems have won recently and can win again.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Colorado is also a swing state

and 75% of the people are NOT going to vote for *.

He tried to ANWR our Rockies. It failed, thank G-d.

Dean is extremely popular here, as well as Gephardt (moderate support though)...

Hawkeye-X

[TLM]

7. The gun issue is big in CO

and I think Dean will win CO because of his position on gun control.

[LynneSin]

3. all of them

we can't write a single state off.

We won governorships in states like Oklahoma and Wyoming - let's go for them all!!!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. I don't think we're winning OK in my lifetime

OKLAHOMA TOTALS
2000: Bush 744,337 (60.3%) Gore 474,276 (38.4%)
1992 Clinton 473,066 (34.0%) Bush 592,929 (42.6%)
1996 Clinton 488,105(40.4%) Dole 582,315 (48.3%)
http://presidentelect.org/e2000.html

I think Oklahoma Democrats are of a different sort than the presidential candidates.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

10. We'll win Oklahoma

around the same time people come to their senses and stop getting all freaked out about gay marriage.

In other words: Not in my lifetime either.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. It was Clinton's worst state in the south

and a neighbor no less.

[jiacinto]

28. OK has not voted Dem since 1964

And if it is even remotely competetive in 2004 then we are already winning 40+ states.

[sasquatch]

5. Win back NH,WV and Ohio. The south will be told to go fuck themselves.

Because they won't get their fundy BCF chimp because they don't have the votes. If you don't believe me about the south go ask Mike Malloy or Molly Ivins or Jim Hightower or Joe Vechio. They'll agree with what I say.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. agreed- and we can still afford to lose Iowa and NM and Florida

those states had stomach churning close totals. I say Ohio is a huge battleground where Bush will be on the defensive to hold.

[wuushew]

13. I don't IA and NM are as dangerous as you think

New Mexico is still gaining in Hispanic population and unless Bush gets the "magic" 35% he will not win. Iowa is not just agriculture but has a sizeable manufacturing base as well, those workers will be wondering where their jobs went. Finally although a socially conservative state, Iowans traditionally have endorsed isolationism in foreign affairs and apparently still do going off polling data given for the Iowa Caucas.

[jiacinto]

29. A dumb idea

A non-southern strategy requires everything--and I mean everything--to break our way. It's a zero room for error strategy. A really dumb idea.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. I don't think so

Gore proved it. Campaign in New Orleans, Atlanta (because it's a big outlet), and anywhere in Florida and you've covered the possiblities.

[rucky]

8. OH, IL, PA: two outta three will do it

[Padraig18]

17. IL isn't a swing state.

It's a deep-blue 'blue state'.

[mndemocrat_29]

9. Louisiana

Mary Landrieu and Kathleen Blanco can attest, this state is winnable!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Bush got 52.6% of the 2000 total

he looks pretty strong there. But I agree it's worth a shot!

[wuushew]

14. Need at least one more vote

260 + LA = 269 Electoral Votes aka (tie/Bush wins)

[mndemocrat_29]

15. I voted for the Arkansas, New Hampshire, West Virginia route

I think we can win all three (plus Louisiana) in 2004. If we run a really good campaign, Ohio, Florida, and Arizona would all be within striking distance.

[ieoeja]

16. All Gore Won + Ohio

[wuushew]

18. Stop using this map!....very misleading

CT,NJ,PA and NM WTF?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. We know!!! use this one:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map

[mrgorth]

19. Gore wins - FL, + NH, OH, NV, AZ, NM.

wins it.

[_NorCal_D_]

21. If we

can claim the same states from the last election, plus perhaps Arkansas and New Hampshire, it's in the bag! B-)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. Good one! eom

[elperromagico]

24. True

but wouldn't it be great to pull off a Clintonesque 350+ electoral victory?

[aldian159]

26. A wins a win, but a beatdown would be great

n/t

[elperromagico]

23. Ohio and Arkansas would be nice

We have a better chance, historically speaking, in Arkansas than in Ohio. It all depends on the nominee...

[IronLionZion]

25. crazy strategizing!

it all depends on the nominee, Clark better get his own state. Dems should have a shot at Florida without the butterfly ballot. Go for PA and Ohio as well just because.

[fujiyama]

27. Midwest great lakes states

Michigan (has been treading more democratic in recent years)

Minnesotta, Iowa, Wisconisin (these three are a must win)

Ohio and Pennsylvania (the first one has potential, but the second must be kept blue)

New Hampshire (God how could Gore have lost it...The only Northeast state that he didn't win...then again there was Nader...)

Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico (won NM in '00, but gotta move the other two outta the red column)

Other possibilities:
Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana

[NewYorkerfromMass]

31. kick

[NewYorkerfromMass]

32. only 71 votes

I'll take more