Howard Dean Leads in Massachussetts

[slinkerwink]

The AP reports on two polls that show Howard Dean leading among voters in Massachusetts:

A Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll released Sunday... showed Kerry and Howard Dean in a close race in Massachusetts. Dean would receive 27 percent of the votes, while Kerry... would receive 24 percent.
Another poll, reported by the Eagle-Tribune of North Andover, shows that "If the Democratic primary were held tomorrow, former Vermont governor Dean would get 23.5 percent of the vote, while Kerry, the Bay State's junior senator, would receive 22.4 percent." But the real numbers come when asked who would be the strongest opponent against George W. Bush:

Regardless of preference, 33 percent said Dean is the Democrats' best hope, compared to 19.1 percent for Kerry.
The other candidates remained in the single digits, according to the report.

link: http://blog.deanforamerica.com

[Hep]

1. Ouch

I wish NC would go for Dean...

[slinkerwink]

2. Dean's second in NC.....

and why the "ouch?" :shrug:

[Hep]

3. Ouch for Kerry

not leading by a huge margin in his own state.

[slinkerwink]

6. lol, this poll must really piss him off...

;-)

[Eloriel]

32. It also makes him into a bit of a liar

(Probably unintentional.) Within the last day or two at most I saw him on TV trumpeting the poll figures showing people think he's the one who can beat Bush.

Eloriel

[last_texas_dem]

38. But consider...

I don't think trumpeting such polls make Kerry into a liar. I have seen more nationwide polls that show Kerry doing better in a head-to-head matchup w/ Shrub than Dean would do in a head-to-head matchup w/ Shrub. Obviously, this MA poll shows differently being a poll of a particular state, and is obviously bad news for Kerry since he happens to be behind Howard Dean in his home state.

Since our Presidential candidate is decided state-by-state and not by nationwide popularity the polls Kerry is proud of may be of negligible value. At the same time, if these polls are reliable, they are worthwhile in showing that at this moment more Americans by a small margin would support John Kerry than would support Howard Dean if they had to choose between one of them as the Democratic candidate vs. the Shrub. I don't believe touting such polls makes Kerry a liar by any means, but it also may not do much to help him get the nomination when this choice essentially comes down to the state level.

[slinkerwink]

42. That's why I think state polls are better than national polls.

[jsw_81]

4. Poor Kerry

It's going to be really hard for him to ketchup with Dean. :)

[slinkerwink]

5. lol!

ketchup with Dean, now that's a good one ;-)

[tsipple]

9. Now, Now: Play Nice

Kerry's doing a very good job in helping to block the Republican Medicare Monstrosity in the Senate. (And John Edwards, too.) He's having a tough time with the Presidential campaign, but, when he's "on" in the Senate, he does good work.

I hope he succeeds in this Medicare fight, just as he did with the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge.

[lastliberalintexas]

19. I agree

Kerry has been very good on the majority of issues as a Senator, and we all need to be behind them and encourage them to filibuster that baloney piece of legislation.

And he and Dean are within the MOE in this poll.

[slinkerwink]

22. that's true, but it doesn't bode well for the Kerry campaign....

[Some Moran]

40. He's doing well right now...

I love him on most issues, but he's too in with the old money and has supported both the unPatriot Act and

Operation
Iraqi
Liberation

[Mass_Liberal]

7. HAHA

this is great news. My home state appears to know whats good for it. BOOYAH! I feel all warm and gooey inside. Slinkerwink, this post has made my day.

Thanks

[slinkerwink]

25. no problem, go MA!!!

;-)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

8. Dean stronger against Bush than Kerry

Hmm. This has to be wrong. :)

[slinkerwink]

11. I don't think it's wrong *winks*

[tsipple]

12. "Hello? News Desk? Get Me Rewrite!"

All these faux memes keep collapsing. It's fun to watch, isn't it?

Did you see how Dean leads among Massachusetts independents? And among men?

And then there's that membership poll among the South Carolina Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) rank-and file. Dean won that, too. (It's the DLC's largest chapter.) Somebody send Al From a bottle of Southern Comfort. :-)

[slinkerwink]

24. that's really interesting about the SCDLC.....

:bounce:

[Eloriel]

35. It certainly is

I wonder if the DLC will get out there in front of their members (a la "where the people lead, the leaders will follow")

I'd rather just see them implode, but it really is their choice.

Eloriel

[slinkerwink]

39. yep, it's to the DLC's own risk for not listening to the Democratic base

[Renew Deal]

10. Someone told me

that Kerry isn't going to win MA. His words... They don't elect guys like Kerry president. They like experienced senators because they carry more weight for MA. I don't know when the primary is there.

[tsipple]

13. Massachusetts is a Super Tuesday State

March 2nd they have their primary. So it could be a factor in the nomination contest.

[slinkerwink]

15. plus, if Kerry stays in the race after IA and NH,

Dean's winning MA could be the death knell for the Kerry campaign.

[virtualobserver]

23. I think that this poll could be the death knell for the Kerry campaign.

It will be the only thing that the Press will want to talk about, you know, other than Dean,Dean,Dean,Dean,Dean.

[Renew Deal]

34. I would be happy if Kerry dropped out.

It helps my guy. Deanites should be wishing he stays in.

[slinkerwink]

36. Kerry's out of the Iowa debate....

we'll see if that helps Clark or not.

[Padraig18]

14. Mixed feelings about this:

I'm thrilled that Howard is doing so well in MA, for obvious reasons, but it also makes me a bit sad for Sen. Kerry; how truly hurtful it must be to not be leading overwhelmingly in the state you have well and ably represented for so long.

[slinkerwink]

16. yeah, this doesn't bode well for the Senate race if Kerry drops out

after the primaries. His weak showing in the presidential poll will hurt his chances at getting reelected to the Senate.

[jsw_81]

18. But that isn't until 2008

If Kerry loses his presidential bid he'll have more than enough time to repair his image back home. It's unlikely that he'd ever lose his Senate seat.

[slinkerwink]

21. whew, that's good---now we won't have to lose a Senate seat this soon

[bicentennial_baby]

26. Yep

"It's unlikely that he'd ever lose his Senate seat."

Entirely true.

[slinkerwink]

27. hey, how are you?

:hi:

[bicentennial_baby]

28. Hey Noelle!

I'm pretty good, what with all this unusually warm late-November weather. When are you going home for Thanksgiving?

At the moment I'm struggling to find a topic for my American Foreign Policy position paper, and groaning over the trip I will have to make down to the monolithic UMASS library next week. That place is...intimidating, to say the least.

Congrats on the Mass. poll though. I've seen a fair number of Dean bumper stickers up here, as well as a few Kucinich ones. No Kerry ones though!

:hi:

[slinkerwink]

30. I'm also trying to find a topic for my jewish studies paper.....

I'm going home to Texas on Tuesday with a brand new haircut and I plan to proudly wear my Dean pin ;-)

[jsw_81]

29. And don't forget

His wife is loaded. He'll probably have that seat for the rest of his life.

[slinkerwink]

31. He can't use her money to campaign

[jsw_81]

33. He can in the Senate race

Just ask Bill Weld.

[slinkerwink]

37. really? are you sure?

[jsw_81]

43. I'm pretty sure

But I could be wrong.

[Eloriel]

41. Here's the deal, Padraig

A lot of people in MA don't necessarily agree with you on the "well and ably represented" part.

In fact, I'm reminded of when Kerry faced a challenge from then-GOP-Gov. William Weld. At some point Weld's numbers started dropping -- but they didn't go to Kerry, they went to Undecided! Can you say the electorate was ambivalent about their incumbent Senator?

Eloriel

[pruner]

17. here's the rest of the candidates' numbers from the Boston Globe poll…

Dennis Kucinich and Carol Moseley Braun were chosen by less than 1 percent of respondents.

[slinkerwink]

20. Very interesting bar graph...

:hi: