Time: How Bush will GOTV and why I feel Dean is best to counter him

[CMT]

The bally-hooed Time article tonight really is an article about a closely divided country which has a love-hate relationship with its president. In one corner are you and me (hate or intense dislike) which makes up 40% of the country and in the other conrner those who love or strongly like Bush--another 40%. In the middle is about 20%.

Time's article talks about how important the GOTV factor will be in 2004--getting your base to the polls. Here is an excerpt:

...Republicans have no better asset with their base than Bush himself, and in Gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi three weeks ago they gave their strategy a trial run. Bush swooped into both states the weekend before the election, after he spoke 2,500 volunteers were given sandwitches and cold water and sent into precients to knock on doors...armed with information about those on the other sides of the doors, the volunteers came armed with individualized talking points. In some Republican counties turnout was up 200% over the last election. In mobilizing the Republican base Bush is their all-purpose weapond..."

First, I think many of our candidates can defeat Bush. I think the early horse race polls are not as significant as the polls which pit Bush vs. unknown Democrat. Most people outside of a few early primary state do not know our candidates strongly enough to commit to voting for them--they do know Bush.

I honestly believe that Dean has the best chance to go head to head with Bush's GOTV effort. He already has a strong field operation with thousands of dedicated ground troops willing to go door to door. His campaign also is training people in key cities and states for GOTV efforts not only for his primary effort but in a possible general election campaign against Bush. His use of the internet can rally hundreds of thousands of volunteers to mobilize quickly and raise money to counter Bush's ads. If it comes down to who can best mobilize the Democratic base effectively to GOTV to counter Bush I think Dean wins hands down.

In the end though it will come down to ABB.

http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101031201/story.html

[lancdem]

1. Y ou very well may be right

[joeybee12]

2. Time didn't note that they kept Dumbo OUT of Lousiana because he is

much less popular there--they worried his presence would energize the Dem vote.

GOTV is essential in 2004--makes me wonder why Holy Joe is even bothering to run.

[lancdem]

4. I didn't know that about Louisiana

Bush won that in 2000, didn't he? Could it go Dem in 2004?

[CMT]

10. latest Louisiana poll has bush at 47% approval

it is very winnable imo.

[lancdem]

5. I didn't know that about Louisiana

Bush won that in 2000, didn't he? Could it go Dem in 2004?

[slinkerwink]

3. so I take it you've heard of the Grassroots Summit?

Here's the link...
http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=grassrootssummit&JServSessionIdr003=ad7qgy0dc1.app193a

[Newsjock]

6. Vote for Chimpy, or else

... armed with information about those on the other sides of the doors, the volunteers came armed with individualized talking points.

Why do I find this passage particularly scary?

"Good evening, Mr. Jones of 74 Riverview Lane. I see here that you're a mechanic with Boeing, and that you're active in your union. It also says here that you donated $25 to Howard Dean. You know, it would be a real shame if your manager, Mr. Smith, were to be told that you're renting motel rooms to have an affair during--"

"But I'm not having an affa--"

"And it would be sad indeed if the credit bureaus found out about your bankruptcy--"

"But I've never been bankrup--"

"There is, however, something easy you could do to prevent any of this from ever happening."

"Yes, yes! Bush in '04! Where do I sign up! Please, don't hurt me!"

So I may be exaggerating a wee bit, but don't think they're beneath pulling crap that's almost this far out there.

[NewJeffCT]

7. well, if

they have to get votes that way, it will be a very slow process.

I'm more worried about vicious push polling, $200 million of attack ads, etc

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

8. I have always felt this way

The conventional wisdom is that Dean is unelectable, won't play well in the south, blah blah blah, you know the arguments by now. I have never agreed with this assessment. While I certainly concede that he goes into the race with some handicaps, I still feel he is the best candidate to beat Bush, and I always have.

First of all, none of the attacks against him appear to be sticking. The confederate flag flap should have been a nail in his coffin, but it appears to have had no effect, or a minimal one at most. The simle fact is that in the months since he was declared a McGovernesque unelectable flash-in-the-pan candidate, he has gained --- and kept --- front-runner status. How he will play out among swing voters remains to be seen, but one cannot deny that he has displayed the ability and the tenacity to get out in front and stay there. Beyond that, he has the ability to fire people up that quite frankly I have never seen in another candidate in my lifetime. Anyone who ignores his tenacity and his ability to excite people are overlooking MAJOR attributes of this candidate. I honestly believe that these attributes will make him a formidable foe against Bush.

I think Dean is still being grossly underestimated. People can say that his campaign successes so far are due to his cult-like followers if they want. We know better. Karl Rove can say that Dean is the ideal candidate for Bush to trounce in 2004. Once again, we know better. If Dean gets the nomination, I fully expect him to hold Bush's feet to the fire.

I could be completely wrong of course, but that's my take.

[slinkerwink]

9. thank you for saying that....

[dmkinsey]

11. Working for Dean earlier today

We're canvassing in lower income, high Dem neighborhood telling folks about the approaching Michigan Dem Caucus (Feb 7),giving them info about Dean.
One man said that none of the other candidates had sent people to his neighborhood.
Exactly. None of the other candidates HAS anyone to send to ANY neighborhood. We are not directed to do this work by the national Dean campaign. This effort is organized right here by our #1 Deaniac, Martha- a self taught political activist with no previous exprience. We produce the flyers,formulate our own strategy and do the work.
Dean has a real advantage in his grassroots support.

[Adjoran]

12. Dean needs to do some work

with African-Americans in order to energize the base. It was Donna Brazile's GOTV effort that won the popular vote in 2000, primarily accomplished by increasing AA turnout.

The Bush campaign is easily predictable: "Stay the course" on Iraq and WOT, more tax cuts "because they are working," and anti-gay marriage rhetoric which will, with the partial-birth abortion issue, turn out his base. And, he will have lots of cash to spread around. If he gets an early lead, he will probably use the "Rose Garden strategy" that worked so well for Nixon in '72 and Clinton in '96, staying around Washington for photo-ops, and signing legislation in the Rose Garden or greeting visiting dignitaries in the Oval Office.

So what? Close presidential elections aren't won on issues, they are won on turnout. Even if the big prize isn't close, hard work on turnout can help the downticket so the winner has no coattails.

This grassroots work must be done, thoroughly and enthusiastically, or we can just start planning the '06 and '08 campaigns right now. The work the Dean volunteers are doing in Michigan is exactly the sort of thing we need to be doing for the next eleven and a half months.