Dean leads Gephardt by 10 pts in new Iowa poll

[pruner]

WHO-TV in Des Moines just announced at 10:20 p.m. CST the results of their latest Iowa Poll: Dean is ahead of Gephardt by ten points (32% to 22%)! Kerry is now third, three points behind Gephardt with 19%.

This has not yet been posted on the station's web site, but it was announced on the evening news.

this was just posted on the Dean blog by an Iowa resident.

[jenk]

1. Karl Rove is happiest of all!

[unfrigginreal]

4. Aren't you supposed to exclaim "First!"

to let the other youngsters know that you beat them to the bash fest?

[LuminousX]

7. You make me laugh

[caledesi]

10. Yeah, I be he is thrilled. Not! (repug bs) They are scared sh*tless

of Dean because they know that he is a "stree fighter" and isn't going to take any crap from them. Unlike McCain and Gore, Dean will respond in a NY minute to their crap. That's what I like about him. He doesn't give a sh*t! He's angry at what has happened to our country and will speak out no matter what.

[slinkerwink]

19. hells bell, yeah....

;-)

[Upfront]

54. Yes!

People in Iowa get it. Dean has broken the bondage of Corp. big money. He is free to work for the average American. Go Dean.

[Skwmom]

23. Yeah, they're so scared the corporated controlled media

has been told to give Dean a free pass. How can anyone buy into "they are scared of Dean" is unbelievable.

[SahaleArm]

26. LOL

Wait till the sh*t really hits the fan, I'm afraid of mass suicides :evilgrin:

[Andromeda]

21. I think you have some relatives

at this forum. Is it your shift now?

[CMT]

32. my view of it is this

if Dean gets the Democratic nomination by winning more primaries and caucuses than the other candidates then he has proved to be the choice of the Democratic party and the strongest candidate we could put forth to challenge the Bush regime.

[creativelcro]

35. Rove has NO CLUE like everybody else

[Hep]

38. So true

Bet you can't wait for Rove to kick Dean's ass! Some people hate Dean so much, they have no idea how idiotic their smug insults look.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

41. and some are so enamored of Dean

they often have no idea how idiotic he looks.

[Hep]

43. Oh yeah, man you got that just right!

Everyone is stupid! Never saw that one before.

Seriously, what are the odds that a year from now you're going to look back at the way you treated people on this board and ask yourself, "Why was I such an asshole to people I've never met?"

[sangh0]

62. Typical

NYfM says "SOME are so enamored of Dean they often have no idea how idiotic he looks." and Hep, in a typical flight from the truth says "Everyone is stupid! Never saw that one before"

"Everyone" is NOT stupid. Just those few who can't tell the difference between "some" and "everyone"

[Eloriel]

61. Think again

Bush team considers Dean formidable Republicans admit they underestimated Dem candidate
By Judy Keen
USA TODAY
http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20030908/5477666s.htm

WASHINGTON -- Republican Party officials and political advisers to President Bush admit that they underestimated Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean and say they now consider him a formidable potential adversary.

Some Bush allies say he reminds them of another insurgent candidate who once bedeviled Bush: Arizona Sen. John McCain. His wins in Republican primary elections in New Hampshire and Michigan rattled Bush's 2000 campaign.

''There is something going on there, and I tell you, if we don't pay attention . . . we're making a big mistake,'' says Tom Rath, a Republican strategist and Bush adviser in New Hampshire.

snip

Two months ago, Karl Rove, Bush's top political aide, watched Dean supporters marching in a parade July 4 in Washington and said to a friend, ''That's the one we want.'' Exhorting fellow parade watchers, Rove yelled, ''Come on, everybody! Go, Howard Dean!''

The thinking then was that the former Vermont governor was too liberal and too obscure to be a threat. Bush allies were more worried about Kerry, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt.

Few Republicans are cheering for Dean now. His fundraising -- he collected $7.6 million in the second quarter of the year, outdoing his eight rivals -- the appeal of his passionate attacks on Bush and his rise in the polls have revised their earlier opinions.


-- more --


There was another article, a memo from some GOP consultants in Oregon which said much the same thing: Dean is no pushover.

AND, here's a quote from Time magazine:
http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101031201/story.html

t Bush's suburban Virginia campaign headquarters, manager Ken Mehlman has taken to asking staff members who knock off early, "Does Howard Dean's staff go home at 6?"

Eloriel

[dkf]

2. No way!

Wow wow wow.

[robsul82]

3. Holy GEEZ...

...I wanna lick 'em!

Later.

RJS

[slinkerwink]

20. we're definitely on a roll!

[unfrigginreal]

5. Great news!

What's the trend Pruner? Do you have the last results from this same poll?

[pruner]

6. I have no information other than what I originally posted

I'll post more info when it becomes available.

:)

[unfrigginreal]

8. Here's the last poll, from October 26

If the election were held today, the survey shows Gephardt tied with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, each earning 26 percent. John Kerry came in third with 15 percent, Edwards had 8 percent, Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman each just 3 percent.

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2597550/detail.html

---------

[Rose Siding]

34. No- 11-9, Gep was up 7 pts on Dean

http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/22685215.html

17 days ago- Long time between polls! I'd become very curious.

But now I'm very relieved :bounce:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Well, I see where Gep agrees (w/me) that Dean lied on the 87 billion

I'm not convinced Dean will win Iowa:

"On Saturday, Mr. Gephardt released a negative television advertisement of his own, saying that in a debate in New York, Dr. Dean had publicly supported the appropriation of the $87 billion for Iraq."

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/24/politics/campaigns/24GEPH.html?ei=5062&en=038b83a729bab04f&ex=1070254800&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=

[caledesi]

11. Howard Dean has the "It" factor. Face it. He energizes a crowd

like no other. He is blunt and I like that. Does do the usual fake "smiles"...hey, that is okay w/ me - the guy is serious.

Dean/Clark - My dream ticket. (just had to get that in)

[slinkerwink]

14. I was at the bryant rally in August------Dean totally worked the crowd!

I loved that rally....who's to say that Dean doesn't have charisma?

[slinkerwink]

17. there's monday's debate where geppy will bring that up

I expect Howard to slam him down.

[Andromeda]

22. Dean didn't lie about the $87B...

he always said he supported it because he wants the troops taken care of while they're getting their asses shot off in Iraq.

Dean didn't support going to Iraq in the first place but he knows that they can't just cut and run so he was just being realistic.

Gephardt was consistent when he voted for IWR and also voted for the $87B. Neither Kerry nor Edwards voted for the $87B for Iraq but they did vote for the IWR. That's not being consistent and reeks of political opportunism.

It's apparently okay to send our troops overseas to die but we shouldn't send them needed funds for food, medicine and equipment.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. But in Dean's Iowa ad he says he's against the 87 billion

Seems he wasn't straight about this as you seem to have another interpretation of what Dean said.

[Hep]

39. It's because some dumb people don't know how to use the language

They always put the period in befoire the rest of the sentence is constructed. I mean, you wouldn't do that consciously, would you? You know, leave out all the pertinant information?

Here. Allow me to educate you on matters of nuance. There's the NOTION of spending 87 B in Iraq, and then there's the actual bill that appropriates the funds. You with me so far?

Dean doesn't want to deny our soldiers money that they need, so in princoiple he's for spending 87B on them. But he was against the BILL that was written to appropriate the funds, because it didn't take the money from where Dean thought it should be taken: The tax cut.

Maybe you really don't get the difference. I know you don't want there to be any information that let's Dean off this hook you've fashioned for him, so I fugre your response will be some kind of brainwashed comment, or something about how the people are too stupid to get the difference. I mean, if YOU are, and if Gephardt is, maybe you're right.

[Rose Siding]

36. Dean was for it if it was paid for

with a tax cut roll back and a plan. (like a responsible adult)

[Scott Lee]

55. You agree with liar Gephardt? You sure?

You might want to go back and really try to comprehend what Dean said about the 87 billion. He noted that the mess was already done and he thought it a lousy idea to abandon the soldiers already there, but preferred the 87 billion spent at home for more urgent domestic needs. Remember when he egged on Bush by offering a deal to support the 87 billion if Bush would repeal the tax cuts?

Of course you don't. Selective memory for a selective obsessive hate of Howard Dean. Will you clutch a picture of Gep and cry the day that Dean wins the nomination?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

56. The problem is Dean straddling the position and then running an ad

making it seem like he was categorically opposed to the 87 billion.
There are Dean supporters right here in GD who acknowledge Dean's error on this.

[Scott Lee]

59. "Making it seem"?? Dean was clear as a bell on this

At least he was to me. And to boot, clever in trying to link his "support" for such a price tag impingent on Bush rescinding the tax cuts for the rich.

I don't know why this continues to be such a magnum mysterium to you.

[slinkerwink]

12. WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:throws cowboy hat around the room:

:bounce: :party: :bounce: :party: :bounce:

[slinkerwink]

13. :kick: take that you naysayers!

:yourock:

[pruner]

15. you sure do have a lot of enthusiasm (for Dean) slinkerwink…

:yourock:

[slinkerwink]

16. yeah, what can I say? I've invested my money in that man!

and my investment better do well to get the nomination! ;-)

[slinkerwink]

18. :kick just for giggles:

[farmbo]

24. 1)Strong showing at the JJ Dinner 2)SEIU& AFSCME endorsements...

...and 3) 50,000 more personal letters from Dean supporters to undecided Iowa Democratic voters.

A great-- and effective-- mix of traditional and novel campaign techniques.

[slinkerwink]

25. yep.......this is the best organized campaign out there.....

who would've thunk it when Dean was an asterik?

[Zynx]

27. And what's more is that the same poll in a different article shows Dean

would beat Bush in Iowa in a head to head matchup. Take that Dean bashers!

[Rose Siding]

37. What article? Is there a link for this poll?

thanks

[flpoljunkie]

28. From today's Des Moines Register, most activists remain undecided

http://www.dmregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/22842271.html

As Democratic caucuses edge closer, most Iowa activists remain undecided


By THOMAS BEAUMONT
Register Staff Writer
11/24/2003

Nearly a year of solid campaigning by Democrats running for the 2004 presidential nomination has failed to produce a solid favorite in the race for the Iowa caucuses.

Despite the well-planned campaign events and television advertisements, the campaign for the nation's first nominating contest will more likely come down to a neighbor's argument or plain old horse sense.

Candidates will try to nudge Iowa Democrats closer to a decision today as most of them gather in Des Moines for a nationally televised debate. But most party activists remain strategically uncommitted with fewer than 60 days until caucus night.

<snip>Polls show about one-fifth of Democratic caucus activists have not settled on a firm choice. More telling is that vast majority - roughly three-quarters in the November Iowa Poll - could change their mind before or on caucus night.

[slinkerwink]

29. ::eye roll:::

:eyes:

[Hep]

40. Monday morning hilarity

When it's gep in the lead, no one mentions the number of undecideds. When it's Dean, the undecideds become the REAL statistic.

The bashers are more transparent every day.

[Fleshdancer]

47. Now how can Iowans be undecided?

I mean really, they've been courted for months by most of the candidates...isn't it time to pick who they want?? I wonder if many of these "undecided" voters choose "undecided" just to piss off people like me! lol

[Duder]

31. Time Magazine reports:

At Bush's suburban Virginia campaign headquarters, manager Ken Mehlman has taken to asking staff members who knock off early,
"Does Howard Dean's staff go home at 6?"

[MoonAndSun]

33. It seems that the more the media and others bash Dean, the more

his numbers go up. Dean :yourock:

[Hep]

42. And they

aren't even quick minded enough to figure it out.

This primary is ABOUT DEAN. The debate, which I will miss due to college basketball being more fun, will be ABOUT DEAN. When everything is about Dean, this is what happens.

Take a look at this board. Every day a dozen Dean threads, mostly started by people who don't like him. And then they complain that he gets too much attention. I've seen people do some weird shit, but this takes the cake.

[Scott Lee]

60. You're right. That's why I find it amusing, not annoying.

This trend means that Dean might take the convention by storm, and if that trend holds for the general election, Dean could cream the Boy King.

[Fleshdancer]

44. What's the deal with the Iowa polls?

It's getting difficult to take them seriously when one day Gephardt is in the lead by 7 points, then Dean is by 9. As much as I would love to believe that Dean is ahead by 9, I can't stop thinking how the polls had Gore losing the popular vote in 2000...and to be honest, I am a little bitter that I've never been asked to be a part of a poll before. :(

[RevolutionStartsNow]

45. Excellent! And also consider...

that there's a certain amount of Dean's support in Iowa that is "under the radar", that is, new activists and people not being polled who will show up for the caucus. The Dean campaign is incredibly organized in Iowa.

[JaneQPublic]

46. Good point!

Plus, the new poll numbers makes ya think all those letters we've written to undecided Iowans is beggining to pay off.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

48. And just wait...

until the 5000 people signed up to canvass in Iowa in January get there...that's a huge number.

[Rose Siding]

49. Here's a link to the poll

It's not a 10 pt lead. Looks like that number is how much he's gained from the last poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html


President, Iowa Dem Caucuses
11/21/2003

Dean
31%

Gephardt
26%

Kerry
24%

Edwards
14%

Undecided
6%

Data Collected
11/18/03 - 11/20/03

Geography
State of Iowa

Sample Population
408 Likely Caucusgoers

Margin of Error
5.0%

Client
WHO

It must be tricky for them to ferret out likely caucus goers.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

50. WOW! Kerry's Iowa support is surging

24% is a lot better than I've ever seen him doing there.

[flpoljunkie]

51. With a 5% margin of error, Dean, Gephardt, Kerry are in virtual tie!

So get off it. Race is still wide open!

[Rose Siding]

52. OK wait

You see the link I posted only has the 4 candidates named?

That makes sense considering this post in comments on the blog:


All right. Just called WHO-TV. This is the deal:

Asked about 400 probable caucus goers. 1st question was along the lines of "if the caucus were today, who would you support?"

Answers: Dean 32% Gep 22% Kerry 19%

2nd question: "If you could only choose among Dean, Gep, Kerry, and Edwards?"

Answers: Dean 31% Gep 26% Kerry 24% Edw 14%


The person I spoke with told me there were no relevant trends, since the methodology of this poll was quite different from previous polls.


(If I get a better link, I'll post it)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

53. Given that the caucus threshold of support is 15%

the 2nd question is quite fair.

[Rose Siding]

57. Here's a link with both rounds of questions

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031121demcaucus.pdf

[ozone_man]

58. Pretty interesting.

How does Dean drop from 32% in the full field to 31% in the field of four? Margin of error, etc. probably.

Gephardt and Kerry are picking up 4% and 5% respectively (of Lieberman/Clark votes I presume) in the field of four.