How reliable is the Old Farmer's Almanac Long-Range Forecast ?

[Bombtrack]

http://www.almanac.com/weather/prediction1.June.2004.php

I was looking for an idea of what the weather would be in a couple of weeks and I got that on google. Anyone know if it's good info?

[WilliamPitt]

1. They nailed last year's New England winter to the last decimal

Said there would be only four days without rain last June. There were four days without rain last June. It was eerie.

[Political_Junkie]

2. Wow, where was I last June.

I was just saying to a friend at work today that I don't remember ever seeing so much rain at this time of a year before. I, I don't think I was stoned... :shrug:

[sbj405]

3. Try the Climate Prediction Center

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/OUTLOOKS_index.html

They do a number of long range forecasts and it's actually based on science (dare I admit I am a meteorologist), rather than climatology and wild guess like the almanac. Though the accuracy of anything more than, say, 3 days away is pretty low, but you can get a general idea of heat waves/ precip.

[benburch]

About as accurate as dice.

It will be wet in the spring, warm in the summer, and cold in the winter. In the fall, the leaves will change... So they cannot ever be too far wrong, but it is just chance.

I'd rather trust the NOAA long range forecast.

[Robb]

4. The ski industry buys into it...

...when I worked there we were talking Almanac all the time. I've been following along this year, pretty darned good. It's statistical forecasting, so it's going to be right fairly often, and way ahead of meteorology at a distance. Of couse, the closer you get, the better off you'll be with Doppler radar and the like. :)

[VelmaD]

5. Well, where are you at...

'cause if you're in Texas I can already tell you...it's gonna be HOT. :)

[Bombtrack]

7. Massachusetts

I don't know what part of that noaa website to go to for the right info. It's confusing

[DemoTex]

6. Don't be seen with a Farmers' Almanac.

A$$croft might get you!