Lets be honest... How much of a chance does John Kerry have?

[battleknight24]

Remember, Dubya has money, and honey, that means a lot come election time...

[phantom power]

1. I think his chances are good

Kerry is doing pretty well in the money department too. And the unpleasant realities of Bush's presidency are starting to sink in with people.

I give Kerry a 70% chance of winning in Nov.

[judge_smales]

2. Pretty damn good I think.

Kerry ain't exactly broke, and there is plenty of anti-Bush sentiment out here.

[battleknight24]

4. Is there enough anti-Bush sentiment to swing Independents???

?

[molly]

7. Yesssss....

and there will be more - just give it a couple of weeks.

[Kahuna]

29. Today's news about the 9/11 commission saying that Iraq did not..

conspire with Al Qaeda will make people remember what a lying POS he is.

[molly]

3. I give him 99.9%

please stop these idiotic threads - we are DEMS and we should stick together - even tho your candidate did not win the primary.

BTW - Tom Carper beat Bill Roth (we all know him, right?) - with less than HALF of Roth's chest. So there!

[battleknight24]

8. I supported Kerry from the very beginning (I'm the original poster...)

... its just that there doesn't seem to be a lot of outrage over the shitty job Dubya is doing...

[molly]

11. Most everyone is not a screamer

[carolinayellowdog]

22. Not high enough!

100%. The chickens have barely started coming home to roost.

[UrbScotty]

5. Nah, money hardly means anything. Dean had a lot of money.

It's the votes that count.

I say Kerry has a 55-60% shot in November, but who knows what could happen in the next four and a half months.

[lovedems]

6. Look how much Dubya has spent so far and he is tanking in the polls.

I don't think he will be able to buy his way into the WH this year. I predict Kerry will do just fine.

[Khephra]

9. Pretty good

But not because of anything Kerry's doing. It's more how much Bush is fucking up.

Kerry is running the most boring campaign since Dukakis.

[UrbScotty]

17. BORING?

Have you watched him speak?

[Khephra]

21. Have I watched him speak?

I have three tvs in front of me turned to CSPAN, CSPAN2 and CNN. Kerry is boring. Sorry, but that's what many of us think. I'll vote for him, but boring is boring.

[Westegg]

10. I think he's got a very good shot. But it's early yet...

...and so many things could happen between now and November. Still, I am feeling good and fairly energized about his chances.

[matcom]

12. GREAT LOUNGE thread

or....... :eyes:

[battleknight24]

13. The reason I'm asking (I'm the original poster)...

... is because I was overconfident that Gore (in 2000) would rebound easily in the polls and win the election faily easily... now, even though Kerry is doing great, I still have my doubts. Like I said, I supported him even when Dean was the most popular candidate...

[yorgatron]

16. i don't think the independents are going to be that big of a factor

considering how many repubs are jumping ship!

[Meritaten1]

24. Kerry has a very good chance

because now the country realizes what a national disaster the current administration has been.

This time around W will have to run on his "record" (such as it is) and that should be a very big plus for Democrats.

[Exgeneral]

14. at the moment, Kerry is 5-4 in Vegas, baby

so I'd say pretty good.Despite Kerry's every effort to take a dive, it appears no one counted on * tripping over his shoelaces and knocking himself out.
Come September, Iraq will more toxic than today, several resignations and indictmenst will have hit his cabinet, maybe even his #2 man, and Kerry can go toe to toe with * in the money department.

I mean, * already spent 130 million in anti-Kerry ads. What did that get him? The lowest approval rating in the hsitory of approval ratings.

Nope, the country is just marking time until November. Watch waht happens to the stock market in August once the realization the party's over hits Wall Street.

[Misunderestimator]

15. Well, he got another chunk of change from me today...

And I know I'm not the only one... Got a call from his campaign today and pledged my support... again.

What was this thread about again? :)

[Parche]

18. Kerry

Has just raised over $100 million, so he is right up there
with Bush

I know it will be a landslide for Kerry

[bluestateguy]

19. A good chance...for a challenger

The challenger always operates at a handicap for a number of reasons. One is the hard reality that good news for the nation is usually bad news for the challenger. The second is the advantage that the incumbent has in having the machinery of government at his disposal, along with the megamicrophone of the presidency. As president, he can make decisions that actually result in the government doing things. The challenger has no such advantage.

With a clear majority saying they believe the nation is going in the wrong direction, the fact that the race is a dead heat when Bush should be pulling away, and the fact that Kerry is holding his ground when it comes to fund-raising shows that his candidacy is to be taken seriously.

[terrya]

20. It's good, IF he and all of us fight back.

The first thing...the first thing Kerry should do is get a war room in place. Just like Carville and Begala did for Clinton in 1992. Be prepared for some real nastiness from Bush and company. Remember what those right wing scumbags did to John McCain during the South Carolina primary in 2000. The same thing will be done to Kerry. That's a given.

We've got to fight back. If those slimebags slander Teresa Kerry, for instance, bring up Laura Bush's vehicular "accident". Hit them back. Hard.

This is really going to get nasty. Kerry has a great chance of being our next President. If we fight for him.

[ewagner]

23. Probably pretty good

because not even Repubs like Bush.

They just have to be convinced that pulling the lever for Kerry isn't the end of the world.

[dr.strangelove]

25. This will be close

I fear we will have another 2000 in which Kerry wins the general but loses the electoral votes.

The solid Bush states make up 118 Electoral Votes. These states are
Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Bush leads most polls in these states by over 10%.
There are three more states (41 Electoral Votes) that are almost certainly red, and Bush polls between 8-10% in these states.
Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee.
This gives Bush 159 in solid/almost certain Red States.

Kerry has 171 Electoral Votes in solid Kerry States where he polls above 10%. These are California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (at large and district 1), Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Kerry is almost certain to win at least Washington and Maine District 2 giving him 12 more for a total of 183 solid/almost certain Blue States.

The remaining 196 are in play.
Bush currently polling in Louisiana, Arkansas, Virginia and Colorado outside the margin of error. Bush leads within the polling error margin in Missouri. Arizona, West Virginia and Ohio split evenly.

Kerry leads in Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota outside the margin of error.
Kerry leads in Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

These are the so called "Battleground States."
Louisiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Arizona, West Virginia, Ohio, Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Its not going to be a landslide, but if Kerry can win Pennsylvania (21), Florida (27), Ohio (20), Minnesota (10) and Michigan (17) Hed have 278 EVs and win the election.

[Gom Jabbar]

26. His chances are excellent

so long as we don't lose hope, and so long as we don't stop working to help him.

*ahem*

[david_vincent]

27. My boss, who is not only a Republican, but

very active in the state R party, working endless hours every election for every Republican candidate and cause, is NOT voting for Dubya.
She had already made up her mind not to repeat her mistake earlier, but on Monday, she went to the funeral of a young man who grew up as one of her neighbors and is now dead because he was sent to Iraq.
This woman has spent most of her life working for the Republican party in one capacity or another.
I think W is toast.

[Kahuna]

28. What are you talking about? If a lot of people don't become more positive

about him winning he has a rotten chance.