Quinnipiac Poll is out of touch...

[rabid_nerd]

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/6793418.htm

Bush beats anyone declared or not by at least 10 points?

Apparently they didn't listen to Leno last night (neither did I, but it came up in a Google)

Jay Leno: "According to the latest Zogby poll of American voters -- listen to this -- Al Gore right now, you know he's not running. Al Gore leads George Bush 48% to 46%. Isn't that incredible? Bush two points behind Al Gore. You know what that means? If the election were held today, Bush would win again."

[joeybee12]

1. Great Line by Leno!

Re-defeat Bush in 2004!

[Cheswick2.0]

2. I think a dead yellow dog could beat bush right now

I would prefer a Gore candidacy, that is for certain. I wish he would give another great speech, maybe on healthcare this time.

[rabid_nerd]

3. OLD YELLER FOR PRESIDENT!

Yellow Dog in November!

[DemNoir]

4. That kind of poll is worthless

There is no real candidate yet plus most people dont really know who they are. It is way to early to ask such a question.

[rabid_nerd]

5. But still...

Trends are important to imply momentum...

HOWEVER, my point is, what's with Quinnipiac?

NOONE within 10 of Bush? Not even the undeclareds Hillary and Gore?

That is GROSSLY out of the error range compared to almost every other poll. Most have a few DECLAREDS within 10 points, let alone the undeclared big names within 5!

(edit:spel chek)

[LoneStarLiberal]

6. Quinnipac Has Been Sketchy Before

I will say from the get-go that I don't put much stock in telephone polling as a form of measuring public opinion. I think that even when executed properly, telephone polling is only as good as having two high priests reading the goat's intestines instead of one. No organization takes the time or has the financing to do high-n well-designed polling.

So, after exposing my biases up front, Quinnipac and Zogby are both two of the better intestine readers around. But I have noticed Quinnipac has put out some really lousy polling this pre-primary season. Most of their polls (and to be fair, several other organizations' polls) had Joe Lieberman leading far and away up until the big "Dean Trifecta" week of media victories for Howard Dean. Even after this, they still had Lieberman leading Dean and Kerry.

No one I have talked to on the ground outside of the East Coast (and not all up and down the East Coast) would even rate Joe Lieberman in the top 4 of the candidate field, much less have him leading the field. My impression of his campaign is that it is nearly invisible to this point beyond his going negative in the debates. Where has his campaign been? In hibernation? Granted my sample of Democrats is biased both on selection and sample size, but I simply cannot let my gut instinct go that Quinnipac screwed the pooch on these polls. I mean the results are just very different from the reality I've seen and heard, so much so that I am left to believe that there was some serious sampling bias going on in their work.