To understand what we must do to adjust to live without the Automobile we have to look at How we adjusted to the Automobile.
1. First you must have a background on Transit (Both Automotive and what is now called Light Rail, in 1900 was called “Electric Railway”, “Streetcar” or “Trolley”)
In the 1880s the US Post Office said it would provide Rural Free Delivery (RFD) to any areas with “improved” Roads. This was do to lobbying by Bicyclist who wanted paved roads to ride on. Prior to that date Rural roads were all dirt (with some exceptions, not many but some, for example US 30 was only paved coast to coast in 1925, being the first paved coast to coast). Bicyclists were the major push for improved roads till 1900, when Automobiles owners started to push for improved roads. About 1905 several States imposed the Gasoline Tax to pay for such improved roads (this type of “user” tax was popular around 1900, for example Hunters had agreed to a 15% tax on Guns and Ammunition so that the Federal Government could have some money to pay for conservation. Both taxes were pushed by the people who were paying the tax, thus Congressmen agreed to pass them).
With the Gasoline Tax, the States had money to pave roads. The States Started to pave, but only rural roads, with most “State” highways ending at the edge of any major City. The City had to pave its own streets. Most had started to do so after the Civil War, but with the Advent of the Streetcar, most cities had the Streetcar Companies pave the streets the Streetcar ran on. This requirement that the Streetcar Companies maintain the paved road the Streetcar ran on, was one of the reasons Streetcars were later replaced by Buses. In 1890, when most urban areas first started to have Electric Streetcars, such streetcar service was very profitable, but by the 1920s profit margins had dropped so much that the Streetcar Companies could NOT replace they tracks AND still stay in Business. Thus from the 1920s till the 1960s whenever a major rebuild of tracks were needed, the Streetcar lines were abandoned. Some of the Old Streetcar Companies converted themselves, other went bankrupt and replaced by a new company running buses (Please note I am discussing Rural Electric Railways NOT inner City Electric Railways, i.e. Streetcars. Inner City Streetcars did not start their own death sprial till the 1930s and having started later lasted longer i.e. till the 1970s).
While the above was going on as to Streetcars, the Automobile was moving on. 1920 was the first Census of the US where more people lived in Urban Areas than Rural Areas, but Rural Transportation seem to be the first affected by the Automobile. While paved roads would come late to such Rural Areas (Most would not have paved roads till the 1930s) the Automobile driven on Dirt Roads during dry weather could move faster than a horse draw wagon. The Automobile’s biggest competitor, the rural Electric Inter-urban Streetcar, had to maintain its own right of way and collect its fees. With the competition of the Automobile and the movement of people from the Country to the City, such inter-urban lines quickly went into a death spiral. What happen is as less people used the streetcar, to maintain profitability the Street-cars ran less often, with the Street cars running less often people said “Why should I wait for the Inter-Urban? I just take my Automobile”. People thought this way, people went out and bought an automobile, and the inter-urbans had less and less customers. Most failed in the 1920s, with a few lasting till the 1950s (I am speaking of Electric “Streetcars” in “rural” areas NOT in urban or suburban sittings).
Now as the Country side lost population, the City gained populations (With inner city Streetcar use peaking in 1927). Just like the rural area, urbanites wanted to be able to use Automobiles also. Most Cities had paved roads so the Automobiles operated on these roads, and starting in the 1920s you had city planners started to retrofit roads designed for the Automobile into the inner city. In 1964 the US Supreme Court ruled that every American had the right to vote AND that every person’s vote had to be viewed as Equal. This outlawed the practice in most states of providing more representation in their Legislature for Rural Areas than Urban Areas. Prior to 1964 (Which is the era we are discussing in this paper) Rural areas had more representation and thus more power in most state’s legislature than Urban Areas, even as more people lived in urban areas. This had several affect, first rural roads were given priority over urban Roads, second such Rural legislators could be easily convinced that certain rural areas near urban areas should have priority over other rural areas (Thus provided more funds for the development of Suburbia). A third side affect is a total opposition to mass transit (Since you could not have mass transit in rural areas, the rural legislators saw no reason to vote for mass transit in urban areas).
Now, the Supreme Court Decision reduced the power of the Rural areas of this country, but did it at a very bad point in the history of what is now called the “inner City” i.e. Non-suburbia. Do to the expansion of Suburbia prior to 1964, the power switch caused by the 1964 Supreme Court Decision was NOT from Rural to Urban, but Rural to Suburban. By 1964 approximately 1/3 of the US population lived in Rural Areas, with 2/3 in Urban Areas, the problem was the inner city was losing its population and suburbia was increasing its, thus by about 1980 it was Rural 1/3, inner-city 1/3 and Suburbia 1/3. With most rural areas voting Republican after 1964, and most inner City voting Democratic after 1964, the fight for control of both the state and Federal Government was fought by the two political parties in Suburbia. Thus neither party has a very good reason to fight the growth of Suburbia, for it would be cutting itself off from the votes it needs to win.
2. History of Suburbia.1890-2000 (All dates used herein are to establish a guideline to go with, none of these dates are fixed in stone. The dates are being used to set forth HOW suburbia developed NOT the exact dates of any one development in that history).
A. The Trolley Suburbs 1890-1920.
With the perfection of the Electric Streetcar, people could have a quick clean and reliable way to get from Home to Work WITHOUT having to live near a Stream Locomotive line. This helped developed the first true Suburbs (Suburbs had existed before but on the Stream Locomotive right of way and as such restricted in area). These areas are now mostly in inner-cities but people who moved into these areas intended to take the streetcar to and from work instead of the earlier means of walking (Contrary to the Movies NO one took a horse to work, if you did you had to keep it in a stable and had to feed it. If you went by Carriage, the preferred way, you had to keep the carriage stored away from the horse, horse manure is hard on wood and metal. Horse manure is also hard on Saddles, thus no one rode a horse to work). Once these tracks were in the people would move out into these Trolley Suburbs as they were called. Stores would move out to be along the track for that was were the people who had money were.
In my home town of Pittsburgh, the Oakland area of Pittsburgh was a “Trolley Suburb”, The University of Pittsburgh moved out from Downtown Pittsburgh to the Oakland section of Pittsburgh during this time period for it could build a bigger building (the Cathedral of Learning) on a bigger plot of land than you could in Downtown Pittsburgh. Other Business followed.
B. First Automobile Suburbs, 1920-1945. These differ from the earlier Trolley Suburbs is that people who moved into these suburbs expected to used their Automobile either to commute to the old inner city or to the Streetcar line and take the streetcar line to work. People still tended to view the Streetcar as backup if something should go wrong with their car. The homes were still within a distant, but reasonable walk from the street car line. One of the Characteristics of this time period is the movement of Branch Stores of the Major Downtown Department Stores to the end of the Street Car lines. These branch stores were on the Street car lines so their workers could get to them without the need for a car, but people in the new Automotive suburbs could drive they car to these same stores.
C. Post-WWII Suburban Boom 1945-1964. This is an expansion of the First Automotive Suburbs to areas to far to walk to the Street car (or bus lines as the Streetcars are replaced by Buses), but people can still be dropped off at the Streetcar stop if their spouse needed the car for the day. This people saw the expansion of strip malls and discount stores in such strip malls. K-Mart type stores come into domination, stores not only relying on customers driving to work, BUT ALSO THEIR EMPLOYEES.
D. The Mall Age 1964-1990. This is an expansion of the Post-WWII suburbs to even further from the inner-city AND a switch to employment in SUBURBIA and that only the poor would be using public transportation. Four things distinguish this period from the prior period, First is the Switch to the Mall being the main shopping Mecca, Second (and related), the death of most inner-city department stores (Only the biggest ones tend to survive), Third, most Public Transportation switch to both buses AND Government ownership of Public Transportation (With Public Transportation being seen only as a means to provide transportation for the poor as opposed to a serious transit alternative for the automobile) and Fourth, the first branch stores of the old inner-city department stores slowly close down and are moved to the mall. Many Survive the conversion from Streetcars to Buses, but some do not, for the call of the Mall is to great. Unlike earlier eras, if you do not have a car your employment opportunities are VERY limited.
Now the First oil Crisis occurred in this ear, but looks like it was more of a minor hindrance to the furthering of Mall America (a mere hiccup for America was still producing 90% of the oil it was using, not till the 1980s did that number start to drop till today’s 50% production).
E. The modern Era, 1990-2003. This area saw two conflicting movements, first the re-turn of Public Transportation as a serious means of transport for the non-poor, Second the growth of the Super K-mart (i.e. Wal-mart) in areas even further out from the inner-city. While the Mall age saw Public Transportation almost die, the further growth of Suburbia show increase traffic tie-ups between suburban areas. The earlier solution of building bigger and bigger highways was increasingly showing to be a dead-end, but the attempts at improving mass transit feeble do to the feeling that it is only for the poor. People were looking at Mass Transit but since most states restricted Gasoline Tax money to highway use, mass transit had NO stable funding source. With Gasoline the Cheapest (in real terms) it has ever been, no push to increase funding for mass transit is made. Furthermore with more jobs in the Suburbs than in the inner city the old method of all transit going to the urban core is not time efficient for most workers. Why go to the Urban Core by one bus to catch another bus to where you work, when you can drive directly to the suburban work location?
We are in some sort of transition, people have been talking of the need for Public Transportation for 30 years (since the advent of Mall America) but these have all failed for failing to come up with a funding source for such mass transit. Buses have failed for the same reason the earlier Streetcar failed in the cities, as the roads have more and more cars, the bus service that uses the same roads goes down hill. The only solution has been known for over 50 years (as shown by many of the surviving Street car lines), mass transit to work has to come frequently, reliably and as fast as using a car. The only way to do that is to have the transit on its own right of way, but that is expensive, buses running on the same roads as Automobiles are cheaper to buy.
3. I go through the above to show you how we became what we are. To eliminate the Automobile would mean to reverse most of the above. Public Transportation has not been viewed as a serious transportation option for most commuters since about 1964 (and I am being generous, I believe we have to go back to the 1920s to see HOW our society has to be structured when we abandoned the automobile). 1964 is the start of the Mall Age of America AND the rule by Suburbia. While the Inner-city would adjust to an oil-less age rapidly (everything tends to be in walking distance and with oil scare most stores will return to the urban core) how can Suburbia switch? I have less concern about Rural America than Suburbia for Rural America can always go back to horses and a life style of going to “Town” once a month (more often when the crop is in). Even Rural industry can adjust by just having the workers move back to the Company towns that still surround most such existing rural industry (Or moving the industry to the inner-city). Most “Rural Industry” tend to be on rail lines anyway so not much a problem for them. Rail tend to be more fuel efficient than Tractor-Trailer AND can more easily convert to electricity as a source of power)
Thus Suburbia is the problem. Bicycle are NOT much help (Please Note I am referring to bicycles in SUBURBIA, I see them as very valuable help in the urban cores AND even rural America). Now Bicycle are quicker than walking, most suburbs have separated work areas from where people live by distances that are to far to bike EVERY DAY. Furthermore most of these work sites are NOT on a rail line so truck transportation is their lifeline (i.e. if oil becomes so scarce that tractor-Trailer owners can no afford to buy oil, these suburban work shops will die, even if the workers can bike to work).
One last note, when I mention Trains using electricity as a power source, I know you still need some sort fo energy to produce the electricity, but that can be Natural Gas(which like oil is in decline), coal, Solar, wind, Hydro and even Nuclear. Thus you have more option than just oil.
4. Solution? In the final review the best solution will be an adjustment to a clearer Urban-Rural distinguish with what we call Suburbia slowly dying. People will have to move closer to their jobs and those jobs will move closer to the cheapest transportation that will exist at that time (probably rail, but can be barge or ship). Suburbia will retreat to the old inner cities (with some retreating to the new urban cores that exist around some of the malls that exists today. These will survive only if connected to the inner city by a LRV system, but once that is up and running you will see people moving closer and closer to these urban cores. For example I see the malls all building apartment complexes for their workers over the existing parking lots. This will permit people who can no longer afford a car to move closer to their work. As more and more people abandoned the Automobile, do to the increase in oil prices, these will fill in the areas around the old malls developing what the old downtown of 1900 had, shops and workers. After a while the mall will cover all of their parking lots with such apartments as people other than workers decide to live next to the mall. Just like today’s growth of Suburbia is lubricated by Cheap oil, the existence of expensive oil will lubricate a retreat from suburbia.
In rural areas I see the return of the horse and increase rural population. Modern Farming techniques require huge tractors. With fuel expensive, the horse can be competitive but only if the present large farms are broken up into the smaller farms such farms were only a couple of generations ago. Horses today can compete with tractors on farms of less than 50 acres (but you can not survive as a farmer on such a small farms, most farmers who are full time farmers are farming 500+ acres, and to do that you need a huge tractor AND oil to run that tractor). Once oil is to expensive, the economics of farming will change and that will lead to a slow return to smaller farms.
One area where overlap will occur is some of the Mall age and after Suburbs. I see these being abandoned and return to farm land. With decrease yields do to reduce use of Natural Gas derived fertilizers we will have to do so to just to feed our present population. Thus as you travel from the rural farm land to the urban core. you will see acres and acres of small farms than move right into urban areas with small yards. Than as you near the urban core you will enter an area of Apartment buildings (no more than six stories high) around a central shopping district (a old mall or an old inner city center). The Cities will be dispersed but compacted, connected by electric rail service (on both LRV system and the old locomotive systems that will convert to Electricity).
In review you see we have only been living in a Automotive dominated society since about 1925, which means it has taken us 75 years to get to where we are. Once we start to convert to non-automotive society it will take us just as long and will require a slow increase in the price of oil (which is expected). Thus whenever oil production peak occurs, that is when we will start the long and “interesting” switch to a post-automotive society.
Matthews Simons Speech on this subject:
http://www.energybulletin.net/1264.html
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