Dennis WILL BE Cat 4 in six hours, and possible Cat 5 before landfall.

[Maddy McCall]

If it hits west of Mobile at Cat 4 or 5, it will challenge Andrew as the most expensive hurricane in history.

Read Dr. Jeff Masters' just-updated blog at Weather Underground:

I urge all residents of the Gulf Coast in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle who were undecided about whether to evacuate to get out now!

Dennis continues to break the rules for what is usual for a hurricane. In my previous blog entry, I wrote that it is very unusual for a major hurricane to regain its former intensity after a long crossing over land. However, Dennis is poised to do just that.

Aircraft recon just measured a central pressure of 947 mb at 5:15pm, an 11 mb drop in 90 minutes--a rarely observed rate of intensification. The eyewall shrank from 15 miles in diameter to 12 miles, and the satellite presentation confirms that the storm is undergoing explosive deepening. Dennis will surely be a strong Category 4 storm in about 6 hours, when the winds have time to catch up to the pressure falls, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Satellite imagery shows an outer wind maximum is probably forming, meaning Dennis will enter another eyewall replacement cycle tonight after this phase of explosive deepening is over.

The current track of the storm is more WNW than NW, and is likely a temporary wobble similar to two others this storm has already done. I expect Dennis will shortly resume its previous northwest track. The most recent wobble occurred as the storm was doing its previous rapid intensification cycle just before it hit Cuba. The current wobble is enough to probably spare Panama City the worst of the hurricane, but increases the danger to Mobile. A direct hit by Dennis just west of Mobile could easily challenge Hurricane Andrew as the most expensive hurricane in history. Dennis's storm surge of 15-20 feet would push into Mobile Bay and cause tens of billions in destruction. Even if Dennis hits further east near Pensacola, as I still expect, the damage will surpass Ivan's $13 billion and Charley's $14 billion to make Dennis the second costliest hurricane on record.

If you want to watch live windows media player feeds, check out:

CBS WFOR MIAMI FL.:
http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live

CBSNEWS.COM FEED 1
mms://eyenet.wm.llnwd.net/eyenet_livenews1 (Showing the same as above)

CBS WKRG MOBILE AL:
mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

CBS WIAT PANAMA CITY:
mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93323

http://www.weatherserver.net/livevideo.htm will show all 3 feeds will at once. Thanks to [e-mail], who posted this info on the [e-mail] email list.

Dr. Jeff Masters

[GOPisEvil]

1. Yikes.

I hope everyone stays safe.

[CatWoman]

2. the sky just opened up here

:scared:

the cats are going batshit.

[GOPisEvil]

5. Really? All the way up there?

:wow:

[Maddy McCall]

11. I'm inland north of NOLA...

and we are getting winds from the east bending our treetops here. Our power is fluttering in and out. Thank god I got that battery for my laptop last week. And I'm on dialup internet, so I should be good, unless the winds take out our antiquated powerlines and phonelines.

[GOPisEvil]

18. But CatWoman is up by Atlanta.

I just didn't think storms were that far north yet.

You be safe. :hug:

[Maddy McCall]

21. This storm has some huge squalls associated with it.

We are already getting minor wind squalls here. Rain, too.

Just saw a beautiful double rainbow to the east. Wonder if that's a good sign. :shrug:

[jab105]

20. My cat was outside, and we got a huge squall...he jumped through the...

screen door...screamed till I opened the door...the screen door is now half off...LOL!!

We are in North central florida, so just squalls...my motherinlaw in Pensacola beach is freaked out! She's staying at a hospital with a sick friend today, and then heading down here in the middle of the week...she is thinking about moving down here...3 hurricanes in 10 years is too much for anyone...ugh!

[Lilli]

3. OMG it's grown tremendously today

was a 2 when I caught coverage this morning :(

[Penndems]

7. It's moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico

I was watching CNN a few minutes ago, and a NOAA meteorologist said that they're upgrading Dennis from a CAT 3 to a CAT 4. The strike "window" is from Panama City/Pensacola, Florida to Gulfport, Mississippi.

Here's a 6:00 p.m. EDT update from NOAA:
**********************************************************************
ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 947 MB.
DENNIS HAS REGAINED DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...CATEGORY 3
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 115 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS
EVENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
**********************************************************************
This storm is a MONSTER.

To anyone who hasn't evacuated yet: DON'T TAKE THIS HURRICANE LIGHTLY. It's already killed 22 people (twelve in Haiti, ten in Cuba).

Go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and to your local and state emergency services website for frequent updates.

[tigereye]

27. my tai chi teacher is an amateur meterological guy -

obsessed with storms and hurricanes... he predicted that the storm would show that kind of instensification after Cuba. He tends to see "chi" ( and yin and yang -the energy that comes from within) as similar to that of storms and the patterns they take. Often he is surprisingly correct in his predictions.

I hope everyone is safe!

[JimmyJazz]

4. Where are you in relation to all this. I know you are in the South,

and I think I know where, but I don't want to trust my memory. :hug:

[Maddy McCall]

10. I'm about 100 miles north of NOLA.

We're already getting winds from the east here, bending the pines outside. Crazy, huh. Power has fluttered a couple of times.

[bigwillq]

6. Good grief.

Follow the caution warnings and seek shelter. Stay safe.

[MaineDem]

8. Wow, last I heard it had weakened

Now it's gaining strength again. Wow!

I hope everyone gets to safety before it hits!

[CatholicEdHead]

9. As of now it looks like a low grade Cat 4 storm when it hits

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204558.shtml?chart?large

[amazona]

12. stay safe people, this is scary stuff

At one point nola.com -- the website for the New Orleans newspaper -- said every hotel room in Louisiana and Mississippi was already taken. However, several hundred hotel rooms opened earlier today in New Orleans and many of the evacuees are coming here for safety and I hope to have a pleasant visit also.

I hope it does not become a Cat 5, this is out of control.

[tjdee]

13. How does this affect New Orleans?

Isn't NO below sea level? I seem to remember being there a few years ago around the time of a tropical storm (I think?) and a cabbie telling us that it was below sea level but a hurricane wouldn't hit there anyway--if it did, NO would be wiped out.

I see from the maps NO seems to be on the outskirts of this thing-- I'm kind of interested that people are going there for safety reasons, instead of further out? I guess they can't because of time reasons, money factors, etc.

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Wapsie B]

15. The Big Easy is way below sea level.

The city could be underwater if Dennis hits anywhere close to there.
The levees wouldn't be enough to hold the water back.

Stay safe everyone.

[amazona]

16. odds are we'll only get Tropical Storm strength winds

People are just playing the odds for lack of alternatives. The weather dude said about an hour ago that there is only a 15 percent chance that the eye of Dennis will pass within 60 miles of New Orleans. So the odds are good, and it is a place to go for people who would otherwise be stranded without rooms.

[Maddy McCall]

31. Have y'all been put under Tropical Storm warning yet?

We were just put under warning by NOAA.

[CatholicEdHead]

19. NO looks to be safe for this storm

EVENTUALLY, some Cat 4 or 5 storm WILL hit NO. Then since, the city is well below sea level, it will clearly be lost in the storm surge over the dikes. There will be a huge lost of life for those who do not leave.

[The Backlash Cometh]

14. I believe him when he talks about that outer wall of wind.

We're on the north/eastern side of Central Florida and the winds tonight are pretty amazing strong considering that we're so far from the eye.

[blue neen]

17. Same location here.

I'm down here from PA visiting my mom. It just got really windy and started pouring down rain. The power has been flickering on and off.

Take care everyone. This is one big mutha!

[tigereye]

28. hey Blue Neen!

hope you are safe and well! :hi:

[Maddy McCall]

22. Just heard this from MS EMA. Casinos are ordered to shut at midnight.

Why on earth are they waiting to midnight? I'm talking about MS coastal casinos.

Harrison county, south of 1-10, is under mandatory evacuation. But the casinos are staying open til midnight. Go figure.

[merh]

23. Oh, they have evacuated south of 1-10?

Guess I better get my ass in gear. :freak:

[Maddy McCall]

29. Yes, and I hope you don't reply to this because you are already gone.

!!!!!

[merh]

30. In the morning Maddy - in the morning.

:hi:

I just don't like those other 2 systems out there :scared:

I want a life this summer, I don't want to have to spend my time packing up and running from the storms. :argh:

You probably won't hear from me for a few days! I'll be safe.

You be safe :hug:

[Maddy McCall]

32. Two other systems? WTF?

Ok, I'm freaking out, but YOU'RE the one in the path. Get the hell out of Biloxi, or I'm going to come get you and bring you back over here.

Praying for your safety. :hug:

Check your PM.

[merh]

33. I will head north, I promise.

Thank you for the prayers! :hug:

You be safe too! :hug:

I will have DU withdrawals if this mf hits here. No electricity for days! :scared:

[Maddy McCall]

35. I just PM'd you my cell number.

If you need to contact me for any reason, including to keep up with DU activities, a place to shelter, or whatever, phone me.

Take care.

[merh]

36. Just got it!

Thanks! I'll be okay. :hug:

[merh]

24. Oh, and there are two other systems out there brewing!

Son-of-a-bitch! :scared:

[solinvictus]

25. We just had a leading edge of thunderstorms..

Here in Birmingham, AL. My grandad just got home last night from Magnolia Springs, AL, which is about twenty miles east of Mobile. He decided to board up his houses and leave ASAP. He said the evacuation had already started last night as I-65 was bumper to bumper northbound.

[spacelady]

26. We are just 30 miles north of Mobile...

I just started a thread about Satsuma AL--where we are, we made the decision to stay, looking bad out there, though.

[Endangered Specie]

34. Die damn you hurricane!