Who's awake? Look at this latest NHC track. Worst case scenario for N.O.

[Maddy McCall]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084601.shtml?3day?large

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/085817W_sm.gif

[Systematic Chaos]

1. I'm awake. OMG that looks shitty.

Not very healthy for a city that's right on a major body of water and yet mostly under sea level.

:scared:

[Maddy McCall]

2. And no evacuation orders have been issued yet.

If those orders don't come really soon, thousands of people will be stuck on the interstate when Katrina hits. :scared:

[Systematic Chaos]

3. You effing SERIOUS?

Every major model has this thing hooking straight into the 1 - 3 pocket. Steeeeeee-RIKE! Oh, my god, what a mess.... :(

[Maddy McCall]

4. Plus, she's at Category 4, as far as pressure. She's down to 945 mb.

That's Category 4. Winds are already increasing in response to the drop in pressure.

If she hits NO at category 4, that town is seriously fucked.

More about evacuation. There are NO HOTELS available in Mississippi until you get up north close to the Tennessee state line. I'm also hearing that, if people leave NO and head west, the closest hotels available are in HOUSTON. YEs, I said that correctly. HOUSTON.

[HeeBGBz]

9. Yeah, they said it would take 60 hours to evacuate

It looks like they have about 48. I'm in Gulfport, so if it hits New Orleans directly, we'll have that right side wind/rain to deal with.

No evacuation orders anywhere here on the gulf coast yet.

I guess I'll be boarding up puppies at work today.

[ClintonTyree]

13. The right side is the worst..........

I'd be thinking quite seriously thinking about getting the hell out of Dodge if I were you. Stay safe and err on the side of caution.

[ClintonTyree]

12. The mayor is going to announce plans at noon today......

if anyone has seen I-10 during an evacuation, it isn't a pretty sight. It took my daughter 18 hours to drive to Houston last year when Ivan was coming their way.
Anyone who's waiting for the Mayor's announcement at noon is an idiot.

[likesmountains 52]

21. yes, last year my son spent 5 hours on the Causeway trying to get out!

He is in LA right now, supposed to fly to NO tomorrow to start school also...no sense in sending your kids into an evacuation zone.

[darkstar]

25. Yep

Took me five hours to get from Baton Rouge to Laffayette, approx 55 miles....

[likesmountains 52]

27. are you in Louisiana now? What's happening where you are?

[jody]

5. Winds of 115 and rising, NO in the cross-hairs, where is Pat Robertson? n/

[Maddy McCall]

6. Well, Swaggart's down there somewhere.

Guess he'll have to stand in for Pat.

[Maddy McCall]

7. 940mb, 120 mph right now.

Strong Cat 3. Look for Cat 4 by 10AM.

[merbex]

8. New Orleans better wake up!!!

Now is not the time to sleep in

[jus_the_facts]

10. Not lookin' good for Southern Louisiana.......

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/085817F120_

:scared:



Hurricane Katrina Forecast/Advisory Number 16


Statement as of 09:00Z on August 27, 2005
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/


at 5 am EDT... 0900z... the Tropical Storm Warning has been
discontinued from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key Largo Florida and
for Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from
west of the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West including the
Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane center located near 24.4n 84.4w at 27/0900z
position accurate within 10 nm present movement toward the west or 260 degrees

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

http://weather.gov/

[ClintonTyree]

11. My daughter was supposed to leave for NO this morning....

at 8:25 AM. She's starting her Senior year at Tulane University. I didn't bother to wake her, there's NO WAY IN HELL I'm sending her into THAT clusterfuck! She'll be a little upset, I'm sure. There have been so many false alarms in the past three years, but sooner or later NO's luck is going to run out.
I'd be one helluva' Dad to send her into THAT, now wouldn't I? :shrug:
Plus I get to keep her beautiful young self around for a few more days, she's still Daddy's little girl.

[Maccagirl]

14. Yes, CT

Protect your daughter-that is your #1 priority. Good luck and karma to the both of you.

[Systematic Chaos]

15. If there's any doubt in her mind you did the wrong thing,

show her this thread and the satellite photos and projected path, and offer to make her a kickass breakfast. That'll stop all arguments cold. :D

Wish her much success in her studies from us, too!

[henslee]

18. Not much I wouldn't do for a kickass breakfast.

[barb162]

26. That's the sweetest post!!!

sounds like one very loved young woman. I'd be the same way as you. (By the way, that is a really nice looking campus).

[LynzM]

16. Crap.

Not good, definitely not good at all. I hope that everyone is getting the heck outta dodge, at this point...

[BikeWriter]

17. Yikes!

[tanyev]

19. Oh, dear.

I always wanted to see New Orleans. It might never be the same if this hits. Good thoughts to everyone having to deal with this!

[morningglory]

20. Betsy was bad in NO. Don't know the windspeed, but a friend said

a shingle blew through the window, tore through the bedroom wall, went through the wall of the hall, and splatted against the bathroom wall. They were laying low inside. Could have gone through a person easily.

[greatauntoftriplets]

22. I have a friend at work whose parents live in Franklin, LA.

Her father (who is late 70s) is one of those "no hurricane will ever get to me" types. Her mother and the rest of the family evacuate, but the father stays...worrying his daughter.

[southlandshari]

23. Yikes - they need to get out

Bogalusa Parish, right? Not a place I'd want to be in the next few days!

:scared:

[greatauntoftriplets]

24. I bet my friend is on the phone with them right now....

and grateful that she is in Atlanta (she works in one of the regional offices and I am at the Chicago headquarters).

Now I am :scared:

[TexasLady]

28. I wanted to post this from a weather forum

"As I write this message, the people of southeast Louisiana are staring at potentially THE greatest U.S. natural disaster right in the face. If Katrina stikes southeast Louisiana as forecast, and there's a good chance that it will, then there may be little left of that area come Monday evening. A Category 4 (or maybe 5) hurricane hitting New Orleans could put the city underwater for months. Of those who do not evacuate, it's estimated 20-30% will die. You live in a big bowl, and if/when the sides collapse (levees), the water will quickly rush in and cover the tops of your homes.

If I were living in New Orleans, then I would get out NOW, ASAP! If the storm tracks as forecast, then plan on NOT returning to New Orleans until perhaps 3-4 months. It'll probably take that long to pump out the city, inspect and repair all damage to the electrical supply, and remove the tens of thousands of bodies. You probably will have nothing left to come home to, so take what's most important to you in your evacuation.

Heed your local officials' warnings, but do not delay. If you wait to leave until Sunday, then I fear you'll be stuck in the most massive traffic jam that you've ever seen - and you'll probably die in your cars if the storm hits as forecast.

If it sounds like I'm trying to scare you, I AM! I don't sound the alarm here on this forum very often (ok, never), but this is one case that gives ME the shivers. All we can do now is to pray that something happens to divert or weaken the hurricane. Do not complain if you evacuate New Orleans and the storm weakens or veers to one side or the other, be very thankful you have you lives and your homes.

I need to get to work now to forecast the hurricane. If I see anything today that indicates a landfall other than New Orleans, I'll chime in."

posted by wxman57
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71752
I think you have to register(free) to read.

[barb162]

29. wonder if people are starting to leave, who cares to wait to see

what the guv says, you know?