Nova: Magnetic storm, Earth without a magnetic field !!!!

[moof]

On PBS tonight.

How would changes in the Earth's magnetic field
affect life on the planet?

http://www.pbs.org/hplink/redir/wgbh/nova/magnetic/

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. I betcha

stuff wouldn't stick to our refrigerators as well.

What will those poor kids who got 'A's' on their spelling tests do?

[7th_Sephiroth]

3. easy

tape

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Crikey!

Magnetic field reversals also occur with the beginnings of ice ages. The possible mechanism is that these reversals allow a tremendous influx of dust from space, which partially opacifies the atmosphere and cools the Earth down real fast.

The dust itself arrived this year.

There's also a lot of other stuff going on that points to the direction of a drastic onset of an ice age over the next few decades.

Cheers!

--bkl

[proud patriot]

4. Native Americans predict a change in the axis

I'll watch tonights show .

[RainDog]

5. don't those reversals allow us to tell time?

geologic time, that is?

didn't a pole reversal change the direction of the Mississsippi?

an aside- the Hopi have predicted a magnetic reversal as a sign that signals the end of the white man's rule in America and the return of the Native Americans as stewards of the earth.

[supernova]

6. There is a certain regularity to the mg pole flips

It's like 20,000 years or so, IIRC. And we're at the end or overdue of a 20,000 year cycle.

Paging TXLib.....

[SmileyBoy]

7. The North Magnetic Pole is moving south at almost 10 miles per year.

That means in about 300 years, it'll reach Northern Quebec. Weird.

[UrbScotty]

8. So, in a nutshell...

The poles are simply reversing, and we are in for a big ice age soon?

[UrbScotty]

9. Kick

:kick:

[chefgirl]

10. Well, actually

The worst effects they spoke of, to people, will be a huge increase in cancer rates...upwards of 15 million people per year will be diagnosed. The sun's radiation will be able to penetrate the atmosphere as the magnetic field weakens and, in turn, ground level radiation will increase exponentially, so we all get virtually cooked.

But, hey, its all good because, according to the scientists they interviewed, at least we'll all be able to see the Aurora in the sky every single night from just about anywhere on the planet!!!!!!

Oh, ok, well that seems worth it. :silly:

-chef-

[RainDog]

11. Did you get to see tonight's Nova?

In the south Atlantic Ocean, according to one guy, that pole is already weakening. You could see large color-coded "pools" within the ocean that indicated the change.

of course, the south pole/ozone issue is also pretty severe..kids in southern Chile have to be really careful when they go outside because of the weakened ozone layer.

even McCain was in the Senate a few days ago showing the damage already done, saying that we can ignore the issue, but it won't go away and we'll have to address it...and sooner would be better than later.

No doubt Bush's crew put their heads together and Operation Ozone Freedom will soon debut as the newest environmental initiative..Save the world from the threat of ozone layers.

We're already overdue for an ice age. I'm all for getting rid of DINOs, myself, and the GOP elephants won't be able to survive, since they're already fiddling while the ozone burns.

Of course, it won't be so much fun for anyone.

The Nova program said that that pole is already so weakened we are seeing erratic moments, and those will increase, and more radiation will get through the atmosphere...which, if I recall, leads to warming parts of the ocean which upsets the ocean currents, like the gulf stream which warms much of northern Europe, and then the ice creep cometh.

[Dogmudgeon]

12. Climate Change would be a disaster!

Not to be to harsh in response, but the kind of climate change I believe is coming will be the biggest disaster in history. On the other hand, there is no reason why it has to be a disaster at all, except for the political nonsense that keeps the world dangerous even in times of pleasant weather.

A return to "peak ice" would probably reduce the Earth's arable land by 50%, and much of the new areas would be in different locations. So for a period of several decades, we might expect catastrophic famines. Areas above 40 degrees north in North America, 45 degrees north in Europe and central Asia would simply become uninhabitable. Temperatures just below these ice-lines would fall some 40 degrees Farenheit, though the equatorial areas would only cool by a few degrees, forming a gradient leading to a super-hurricane generator every summer.

Coupled with an economy well past "peak oil", and with a huge and growing need for even more energy, it means that whatever world wars and economic intrigues we have going at the time would all stop. This might be the only good point of a drastic climate change.

It bears mentioning that ice ages get going in periods of around a decade, and the Heinrich events that accompany ice ages seem to last less than a year. So the change will be quick. It may take several millennia for a mile-thick ice sheet to form, but the climate could "flip flop" in a matter of months or a few years -- not centuries.

Here's a few of the "signals" that bear watching; nearly all of them point toward a renewal of the Quaternary ice age:

• Weakening, drifting, and loss of the polarized terrestrial magnetic field;
• Increased CO2 before climate change (to 400-600 ppm);
• Greatly increased air and ocean temperature before climate change (5-10 C for air);
• Greater variation in stratospheric temperature and thickness;
• Increased cosmic dust influx;
• Decrease or loss of North Atlantic currents;
• Decrease or loss of Gulf Stream current, especially southgoing, deep-ocean currents;
• Decrease in ocean salinity (so-called "Thermohaline Circulation", or THC in oceanography literature) just before a climate change;
• Decrease or loss of equatorial-region mountain glaciers;
• Increase in thickness of ice caps (Antarctica's mid-continent ice continues to thicken, pointing to changes in polar weather, as did the Arctic's before the temperature rise broke up the northern ice);
• Increased release of methane from seabed methane hydride clathrate ices due to deep-ocean temperature increases (methane is a strong "Greenhouse Gas");
• Similar changes observed on other planets of the solar system, pointing toward a change in Solar output or some other non-terrestrial trigger (see cosmic dust influx as above) -- "Global Warming" has been observed on Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus, and the Sun's magnetic field is nearly absent now;
• Increases in measurable isotopic Beryllium (Be), possibly related to the comsic dust influx;
• Dramatic number of extinctions even before the event;
• Changes in longer-range and teleconnection weather patterns (stronger overall El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, "Wave-2" Snowstorms in Eastern North America and Europe, such as the March 13, 1993 "superstorm");
• Unforseeable changes in the ionosphere, which would play havoc with long- and shortwave radio propagation (microwave transmission would be largely unaffected, though);
• Unforseen changes in human and animal behavior from rapid changes in magnetic fields;
• (everything else we're unprepared for)

Skeptics take note -- every indicator I have listed above appears in recent, peer-reviewed scientific literature.

It looks grim, but it doesn't have to be. A comprehensive disaster-preparedness program could reduce the risk to the point where climate change would be a problem, not a disaster. Such a program would not even have to be expensive, since it would be based on planning for a possible abrupt climate change. If the weather did change, we wouldn't have to waste any time figuring out what to do. Having a year's jump on the problem could save an enormous number of lives. But compare this to how we have handled our other big problem, the coming end of inexpensive oil. So you see, we have a big problem on our hands, and we probably won't do a thing about it until the bodies are stacked high.

In Egypt's First Dynasty, a Herbrew slave named Joseph gained prominance by interpreting the Pharaoh's dream of seven skinny cows to indicate seven lean years. The Pharaoh ordered the granaries filled, and the Egyptians survived the famine. This time, the Pharaohs of the world don't want to listen to anyone, and rather than seven skinny cows, we will have seven billion skinny -- and shivering -- people to worry about.

On the other hand, the skiing will be great for the next 100,000 years.

--bkl

[proud patriot]

13. Watching now on the wst coast

Pretty interesting , even my son
who only seven seems interested .

[SmileyBoy]

14. I don't think we have to worry about this for hundreds of years.

I think that warming of the climates will be more of a problem before cooling of the climates occurs.

I don't believe for one second the bullcrap about this happening in the period of months. The Earth is HUGE. Something like this occurs for at LEAST hundreds of years. The only way that the climate can change so abruptly is if we were hit by an asteroid or comet.

[Dogmudgeon]

15. No bullcrap

There have probably been over 100 studies in the past 20 years that have compiled conclusive evidence that climate change happens very quickly. There was resistance to the idea for a long time because it was so radically different from the uniformitarian model, but under the weight of well-tested evidence, the consensus has changed.

The climate will keep warming for a few more years. There is always a dramatic warm-up before the return of active ice-age climate -- it seems to be an integral part of the process. The neocons are cynically exploiting this finding right now to fight against better, more enlightened environmental regulation. And of course, they don't care about advance planning for any climate change. It might interfere with their ideology or the value of their protfolios.

The world climate system is now known to be "bi-stable". When climatic forces build up (as they do in a cyclic fashion) to a certain point, the world's climate changes rapidly and goes into the other state. This conforms to a well-known systems analysis model known as mathematical catastrophism theory.

As for the asteroid or comet strike, they have happened many times, and only the very largest strikes have triggered long-term ice ages. The process is very "deep", and probably involves hundreds of periodic variables in both climate and cosmology.

It is very easy to find this theory dubious. I myself didn't think it was possible until I read through some of the literature. Nearly everything we're finding now from improved ice-core analysis indicates that the next glaciation will happen quickly. It will take a long time for the ice sheets to become as thick as they were 24,000 years ago, but the actual climate change will hit fast.

By the way, the average air temperature of the world during an ice age may only be 5 or 10 F lower than it is now. An ice age is a climatic system, not just the presence of more ice and longer winters. The weather during active ice ages is more dry than cold.

If you are interested in following the research for yourself, here's a link to get started: http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/ct_abruptclimate.htm

It is easy enough for the raw beginner to understand, but comprehensive enough to give that same beginner a solid background in abrupt climate change findings. It's from a group of oceanographers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. They also list many scientific references in different places. It will at least get you started with the climatology and oceanography terminology so you can use search engines like Google.com to look for more.

--bkl

[Kolesar]

16. this should be in the Science forum on DU

[Loonman]

17. No worries

The field should exist for several million more years, but ut may reversea dozen or so times before then.