So who's going to break Henry Aaron's home run record?

[Bossy Monkey]

#s 5, 6, and 8 were suggested by a baseball management computer game I have (Baseball Mogul) where you can let the computer play itself for decades on end. By 2030, Henry's record still stood; Barry B. was the closest challenger, but the game didn't take into account his injury in real life last year. Yes, as a matter of fact, I AM a nerd.:P

I don't know why exactly, but my money is on Andruw. Obviously Pujols seems like the likeliest, though.

[Magrittes Pipe]

1. A-Rod is probably the most likely.

438 home runs, and not yet 30. If he averages thirty HRs over the next ten years (a conservative estimate, based upon his past performance and age), he'll be right there.

Really, the two hurdles he has to overcome are 1) he needs to stay healthy, and 2) he can't go play anywhere like Dodger Stadium.

Pujols has 223 HRs at 26. Rodriguez had 241 by the end of 2001, he turned 26 in the middle of the '02 season. Pujols has a shot, sure, but he still has 200 fewer homers under his belt. He's got a longer way to go, and there are a lot of things that could happen to derail his career.

I can't root against either of them. They're both damn fine ballplayers, and it would be a credit to the game for either one of them to get there.

The obligatory Bonds footnote: they're not going to pitch to him, and he can't play every day in the field anymore (he really shouldn't play the field at all these days). His only shot is to go to the AL and DH.

[Bossy Monkey]

5. I don't know why I keep expecting ARod to break down sooner or later;

I'm probably conditioned to think this because it's what always happens in Baseball Mogul.:)

You're absolutely right about Bonds. Hey, they seem to like him in Oakland...

[wildhorses]

2. sentimental vote for Ken Jr

I just think it would be FUN

[Bossy Monkey]

3. Wouldn't it, though?

Once he was the can't miss choice. Apparently, Thomas Wolfe had Ken in mind.

[Indy_Dem_Defender]

12. Same here

what could have been if he had some good luck and was injury free. He's the one homerun hitter over the last decade that you can weed out of from the roidheads.

[LSK]

4. Arod and Pujuls

[maveric]

6. Bonds will break it this year.

Expect a power surge after the All Star break. He'll break it on the final day of the regular season, then he'll retire.
In 12 years from now Albert Pujols will break Bond's record.

[wildhorses]

7. you really think??

:wow:

[maveric]

8. I think so. And I'm not a Barry Bonds fan.

He's capable of hitting 40 in 4 months.

[Bossy Monkey]

9. See Hedges' comment above. He's capable if somebody'll pitch

to him, but they haven't been even during his power outage. Also, kind of tricky to play on just one knee. I wouldn't rule it out, but it no longer seems at all likely.

[JohnKleeb]

10. I'd like to see Pujols do it

I really hope he keeps up his current rate of how he plays. I really wish the guy would get his due. He finally got it last year when he won the MVP but all the sports media talks about now is Bonds, Yankees-Red Sox, you know the drill.

[Bossy Monkey]

11. Sports radio talks about Pujols constantly

Mainly in the context of "Why on Earth are they still pitching to him?" but still.

[genie_weenie]

13. I've seen Pujols during the 90s

when he was the most dominant hitter ever. And his name was Frank Thomas. Pujols looks great now, but the question is can he stay healthy for the 20 years needed to hit 760 homers?

And Junior was ripping them at a tear better than Barry during the 90s as well, until... injury. And A-Rod looks like he'll have a good shot in teeny-tiny Yankee Stadium.