* * * Top Chef * * * Odds for tonight -- Who is going to pack their knives?

[HamdenRice]

I almost never betted on anything so I have no idea what I'm doing, and obviously, this isn't about money, but bragging rights.

But these are the odds as I see them. Anyone want to take on the Hamden House odds?

[deucemagnet]

1. Hamden odds seem heavily in favor of the house.

Assuming each chef has an equal chance of leaving, odds would start at 4-1 each (assuming the house is not taking a cut). It seems the Hamden book is taking a hefty cut! :wow:

[HamdenRice]

2. I had the numbers reversed

Each chef has a 1 in 5 (not one in four?) chance of being sent home. 5:1 would be even odds in a random process. I had posted the odds that each would be sent home, not the odds I'm paying out.

Now I've fixed it.

[deucemagnet]

3. Close!

1 in 5 is probability. 4-1 would be the odds. In other words, assume 5 people bet one dollar on each of the 5 chefs. The winner would be paid five dollars, but would only have actually won 4 dollars, one of the dollars being paid out being his initial wager. It's confusing, but after a few years on gambling it becomes second nature. :P

[HamdenRice]

5. Probability is easy. Gambling is hard!

It's strange because it seems your winnings don't reflect the probabilities. But I agree with your analysis.

Anyway, since this is magic money anyway, I can create the extra stuff out of thin air.

[deucemagnet]

8. Well, you did preface the poll by saying you didn't really know.

I had to be the one to get all hardass gambler and question your methods. Maybe I should just go hang out in GD! :silly:

BTW: I voted Brian. His only hope is to either pull another brilliant spam dish out of his ass or hope that Sara screws up, in which case Sara is history.

[HamdenRice]

10. No, it's been educational. I live near Belmont Race track, go to the races and don't bet

So now maybe I'll have a clue how to actually bet.

The Belmont Racetrack is an awsome way to spend an afternoon, btw. It's truly a beautiful track/park.

[deucemagnet]

11. I hear you.

When I lived in the DC/Baltimore area, an afternoon at Pimlico during the spring season was close to being at peace with the world. Even the overpriced National Bohemian draft served in waxed paper cups tasted good in that atmosphere.

[HamdenRice]

13. If odds are 1:1 ...

And I bet $5, does that mean I get back $5 or $10?

[deucemagnet]

14. You get back $10, but you've actually won only $5. n/t

[Fox Mulder]

4. Hopefully Sara or Brian.

Hung next week.

[HamdenRice]

6. I have Hung as the least likely to go

I suspect he's going to win the whole enchillada. The judges have somewhat of a bias toward elaborately plated nouvelle cuisine type dishes, and Hung specializes in that.

[Richardo]

7. Plus he provides dramatic tension - being an arrogant prick and all

The producers will never let him go.

[TommyO]

12. I agree!

The final three will be Casey, Hung and Dale, Casey will take it all.

[Richard Steele]

16. Agreed. They'll keep him until the final episode, no matter what. nm

[Fox Mulder]

9. I think Casey will win it all.

I'm sure the producers want a female to win this year.

Just a guess.

[davsand]

15. Kicking this up before the show airs!

Let's see if the DU poll is right!


Laura

[Richardo]

17. Is it just me or is this the most supportive cast yet?

They always applaud the winner and hug the loser - I don't remember that from seasons 1 and 2.

(Plus: a kick for the new episode starting NOW!!!11!1one)

[Richardo]

18. **Spoilers**

Yay Casey!! Best so far!! :bounce:

[Richardo]

19. Sara is in trouble...

excuses...excuses....

[davsand]

24. How do you NOT notice raw chicken?

Eeew. You KNOW it is bad when a chef that is a judge leans over and tells another judge "don't EAT that!"

That needed to be the kiss of death because it could have made somebody ill...

Can't wait for the next show!


Laura

[Richardo]

25. I know!

Then she acts all surprised about it.

[Richardo]

20. uh oh - Dale says he's grown close to Casey

That's the kiss of death. Ask Sara the Vietnamese. :scared:

[Shakespeare]

21. And Lia and Tre...Casey's like that nursing home cat.

You do NOT want her to proclaim you her new BFF. :scared:

[Richardo]

22. .

:rofl:

[HamdenRice]

28. Casey is like the death cat?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

But it's true!

[Richardo]

23. Looks like....

Casey and Hung ;-)

[TommyO]

26. --- SPOILER ALERT ---

Yet the sexist owner went for Hung in the quickfire challenge. What an asshole!

[DeposeTheBoyKing]

27. I REALLY loathe Hung

Wish I could reach through the TV and slap him silly. I'm watching it now on DVR.