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I understand that the Monty Hall Problem makes an appearance in the film "21"

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pokerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 12:02 AM
Original message
I understand that the Monty Hall Problem makes an appearance in the film "21"
And I also heard that the Kevin Spacey character does a pretty poor job of explaining the mechanics.

Very clear explanation on Youtube to a fundamentally non-intuitive math puzzle:
http://www.youtube.com/v/mhlc7peGlGg&hl=en

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Bullwinkle925 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 06:39 AM
Response to Original message
1. yes, there is . . .
no comment on Spacey.
saw the film yesterday - meh.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Good book but most of the reviews are like yours
Aparently about 3/4 of the way in the director realizes he needs some action and an ending.

In the book I don't remember the casino taking anyone "inside" for a beating :shrug:
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pokerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. No one got beat up in the book
Members of the team were backroomed and intimidated, and that was duing the mobster Vegas (or close to its end). I understand that the producers moved the story into the present day which makes it even less likely that counters were beaten.

It's a fantastic story and it deserved a better treatment.
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Courtesy Flush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. The documentary was very good
Maybe it wasn't a true documentary, but a Discovery Channel show. Anyway, I found it fascinating.

Sadly, Hollywood knows how to mess up a good story.
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cemaphonic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 02:10 PM
Response to Original message
5. Doesn't everybody do a poor job explaining that problem?
Even the original Marilyn vos Savant column that brought the problem into pop culture failed to specify that the host was *required* to open a goat door. Linking the name of the problem to "Let's Make a Deal" is probably part of the confusion. Almost every discussion I've seen or participated in about it gets sidetracked at some point into the motivations of the host. If the host has free agency, the correct strategy isn't "always switch," but rather "bribe the host."

The video did present the problem correctly though.

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Dr. Strange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Marilyn's column was the first I had seen it.
And her leaving that motivation out totally messed me up.

I had a colleague who explained it with this variation: imagine 100 doors (one with a car, the other 99 with goats behind them). You pick one at random and then the host opens 98 of the 99 remaining doors (all of which have goats behind them). Do you want to switch?
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cemaphonic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Yeah, that variation really makes the solution a lot more intuitive
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darkstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 02:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. haha... i thought "this has to be a copy cat"
Having seen the ads for the movie, I assumed this was a take-off on a thread I'd missed on something called "The Monte Carlo Problem" or some such. You learn something new every day. I "got" this for a brief bit, but don't expect me to be able to explain it tomorrow....

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Richardo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 04:00 PM
Response to Original message
8. It's prominently featured in 'The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time'
...and I still maintain it's 50/50.
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pokerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-02-08 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. It was also featured in the first season of NUMB3RS
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