A personal flashback to mid-day November 7 2000

[pmbryant]

I've been going through some old files, and I found this nervous, stream-of-consciousness "essay" I wrote in the middle of the day on Election Day, 2000. It's essentially a summary of all the last-minute pre-election polling trends and how obvious it was that this election was going to be extremely close and how nervous I was about that.

DU didn't exist then, obviously. If it had, I would have posted it here no doubt (in a more polished form, probably). So here it is, 3+ years late.

--Peter

Thoughts on election day: 2:10pm CST

I find myself alternating between strong optimism that Gore will win and cautious fear that he will not. The last tracking polls show a strong Gore trend and lead me to believe he may actually win the popular vote, something which for the previous few days I did not think would happen. My best-guess prediction as of yesterday (and pretty much consistent with my feeling for the last week) was that Gore would lose the popular vote to G.W.Bush by 1-2 percent but still pull off a “substantial” electoral college victory. By “substantial”, I mean by 15-25 electoral votes. Enough to keep single small states like Delaware, New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico from impacting the results; but not enough to keep Florida (or possibly even Pennsylvania) from affecting the winner. Gore needs those! Well, he could lose Florida and still win, but it would require him to carry most of the small swing states like N.H, W.V., Wisconsin, Oregon, etc. The last tracking polls give me great hope, but the memory that polls often are wrong by 5 percent or more gives me great pause. Especially since some polls still predict a 5-point Bush victory (well, Battleground is pretty much the only major one saying that). Zogby predicts a 2-point Gore victory after showing Bush 2-5 point ahead for much of the last 2 weeks. The “obscure” IBD/CSM/TIPP poll, which had been very pro-Bush the last couple weeks, now shows only a 2-point Bush victory. The wild Gallup tracking poll has a 2-point Bush victory. The CBS poll shows a 1-point Gore lead with 5% undecided. Just a couple days ago, Bush had a 4-point lead in that poll. ABC/Wash Post has Bush up by 3, 48-45. State-by-state polls used to be my hope (they still are), but now the national polls give me hope as well. I believe that if Bush only wins the popular vote by 2% or less, Gore will win electorally.

Just a few minutes ago I saw a MSNBC report on the Web claiming that turnout is very heavy so far. Is this good news? I would think so, but it may not make a difference. I think both parties are energized. It’s certainly better news than particularly low turnout, which to me would indicate that Dems aren’t as energized as I had expected. The GOP energy is pretty much an assumption of mine.

I’ll stand by my last prediction yesterday that Gore would lose pop vote by 1% but win the electoral vote by around 20. Senate predictions: Hillary Clinton over Lazio (NY), the late Mel Carnahan over Ashcroft (MO), Bill Nelson over McCollum (FL), Carper over Roth (DE), Ben Nelson over the GOP guy (NE), Schweizer over Burns (MT), Cantwell over Gorton (WA)… well, I seem to be
going strong democratic. Ensign will take NV however, and Allen over Robb in VA. What does this mean for Senate control? Dem+3 => not quite enough for control… They need +5 since I believe Lieberman will be VP!

House prediction? Well, I’ll guess Dem+5. Again not quite enough for control. Alas… Range? Anywhere from GOP+5 to Dem+15, I’d say, based on my reading…

I’m nervous about wacthing the returns tonight. I’m nervous I may catch wind of exit poll results very soon. What will they say?
Could this be another 1980? Close going in, but a decisive win for the bad guy? I doubt it, but the fear is there. What was 1980 really like? What did the polls really say going in? I heard a week or two back that the state-by-state polls that year indicated that it was a likely to be strong Reagan even when the national polls didn’t. If so, that’s heartening because the state-by-state polls certainly
don’t show a strong Bush movement. They show Gore with small leads in all the important states. (Generally, but not exclusively!)
Florida is peculiar poll-wise. A couple polls showed Bush up by +2-4 points, but others showed Gore up by +4-5 (or more on a few
days in the case of Zogby tracking poll). I tend to think Gore has a 2-4 point lead there, but ….??? Wisconsin, another one that’s been all over the map from Bush +7 to Gore +10. I think the Nader crowd will come home (in part) and save the day for Gore there.
At this point, Michigan and Pennsylvania seem pretty secure for Gore (+4-5…?) So if either of those goes the other way, that’s bad news! Zogby’s California poll shows Bush only behind by 1!! Most other CA polls show Gore +5-10, which seem eminently more believable. But…??? The heartening thing about the Zogby poll, if I recall, is that it still only showed Bush with 41% or so. If so, the undecided will come home to Gore and he’ll win by 5-7 points or more in CA. Nerve wracking, however, that I even have to worry, even just a tiny bit, about CA.

In short, yikes!

How will I feel tomorrow?

All or nothing…

Trust the people… Trust the people… They’ll make the right choice…
But will they? 1994? 1980?
Then again… 1992? 1996? 1998?
Think positive!

(Finish: 2:38pm CST)

[carolinayellowdog]

1. Trust the people, distrust the powerful!

That was the most rollercoaster day of my life and many others.

[pmbryant]

2. Thanks for the response

That day was quite a ride definitely. The next day was also quite a ride.

I woke up to hear that Florida had gone for Bush, but then been retracted pending an automatic recount. Still, I had little hope. I was devastated.

As the auto-recount proceeded, Gore got so amazingly close, hope suddenly returned for me, and the wild ride that was to last the next month commenced. But we all know that story.

:-(

--Peter

[GOPisEvil]

3. 2 things from that day stick with me

1. The look on the Bush family's faces when Florida was first called for Al Gore. It was a look like they had something up their collective sleeves.

2. Seeing Bush* supporters camped outside his hotel suite here in Austin on a chilly, rainy night, and that bastard not so much as waving to them, or otherwise acknowedging their presence.

Those two things tell us much that has come to be common knowlegde since his selection.

[pmbryant]

7. Oh, when Florida was called for Gore I was ecstatic

That was the sign. The sign he was likely going to win.

Ever since Florida was pulled away from the Gore column by the networks, it's been a depressing ride.

:-(

Thanks for your story about Austin. I hadn't heard that before.

Peter

[cally]

4. I went to bed and woke up

thinking Gore had won. My day or mourning was when the electoral college voted. As partisan as I've become, I'm still shocked they voted for Bush. I thought someone would break ranks and vote for Gore

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

5. Of all the shit that went on in that month, that, to me is the weirdest

I can't believe that no one broke their promise and voted the way the people instructed them to.
Oh well, it is an idiotic system, always has been.

[ScreamingMeemie]

6. I remember when the red color was taken from Florida and the utter

disbelief...and the phone call from my dad saying that exit polls sucked...and the nightmare that seemed to go on and on as democracy wash trashed in 24 hours.